“The size and growth of the human population is putting unprecedented pressure on natural resources,” reports the first major publication by the Global Partnership for Oceans. The World Bank launched the consortium of more than 140 government, NGO, and private sector groups at the Rio+20 UN Conference on Sustainable Development as a means to bring targeted investment to reverse ocean health decline and encourage sustainable development. On October 16, the Partnership’s Blue Ribbon Panel released Indispensable Ocean: Aligning Ocean Health and Human Well-Being, which encourages members to prioritize five principles: sustainable livelihoods, social equity, and food security; a healthy ocean; effective governance systems; long-term viability; and capacity building and innovation. Selection criteria for investments accompany each principle, including requirements like addressing problems of food affordability and access, demonstrating potential for improvements in human health, and building resilience to future conditions. “The good news is that we stand at a point in history where it is neither too late nor impossible to turn the tide of change that is currently sweeping across the ocean,” panel chair Ove Hoegh-Guldberg concludes.

Climate change poses significant threats inland as well. A team of European scientists from major research institutions recently published an article in Environmental Research Letters highlighting the disproportionate impacts of different global mean temperature increases on freshwater scarcity and vascular plant habitats. “Asynchronous Exposure to Global Warming: Freshwater Resources and Terrestrial Ecosystems” summarizes findings from 152 climate scenarios showing that, under the assumption that the internationally negotiated target of limiting temperature increases to two degrees Celsius is achieved, “almost 500 million people might be affected by an aggravation of existing water scarcity or be newly exposed to water scarcity.” This estimate made headlines, but the authors go on to clarify that “concurrent population growth would further increase this number to up to around five billion people.” (The latest UN estimates put global population at 9.6 billion by mid-century.) The authors also highlight the potential impacts of a temperature increase around 3.5 degrees Celsius, a more likely scenario given current national emissions commitments. The authors note that changes in vascular plant habitat and biodiversity could be more widespread than localized water scarcity, and such rapid changes in land cover may be difficult for societies to manage. “This is not a question of ducks and daisies, but of our unique natural heritage, the very basis of life,” one author says.

Sources: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, UN Environment Program, UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.