The infrastructure powering artificial intelligence (AI) has become both a political flashpoint and a signal for strategic warfare with significant military, geopolitical, and international security implications. Climate change is a “threat multiplier” that exacerbates fragility. The collision of these two forces is certain to create immediate and long-term impacts. AI’s environmental footprint risks externalizing environmental costs onto poorer countries– and the communities within them–that supply critical minerals, water resources, and host energy-intensive infrastructure, deepening ecological, economic, and social inequalities. Over the long run, it may also undermine long-term climate resilience and global stability  

The relationship between climate vulnerability and political instability is clear. Twenty-two of the 30 countries ranked as the most vulnerable to climate change in 2025 also were categorized as fragile and/or conflict affected. Within this contexts, the need for solutions that address the intersection of climate risks and instability is increasingly dire.  

A recent Stimson Center event hosted with the Green Climate Fund (GCF)—Climate Finance as a Tool for Global Stability—examined how early climate investments in climate adaptation, food systems, and water security can reduce the risk of conflict and displacement. 

A window into what we’re reading at the Stimson Center’s Environmental Security Program

Mexico City’s Rapid Land Subsidence is Visible from Space (CNN)

The foundation of much of Mexico City sits atop an ancient aquifer supplying over 60% the drinking water for the capital’s 22 million residents. Now a series of startling new images from space have revealed just how over-extraction of the aquifer and the added weight of urban development land in Mexico City to subside.

When armed groups began threatening a community in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) that had recently gained access to solar-powered electricity, something unexpected happened. Rather than flee, residents rushed to protect their mini-grid. They put themselves at risk to keep the lights on.

A window into what we’re reading at the Stimson Center’s Environmental Security Program

Disaster Response Aid: Data Argues for New Focus on Inequality (Dialogue Earth)

When a 2019 oil spill and the COVID-19 pandemic struck coastal fishing communities in north-eastern Brazil back-to-back, researchers tracked 402 small-scale fishers across three states to assess the impacts. What they found was that fallout from these crises was were not uniform. The oil spill’s contamination of nearshore mangroves disproportionately harmed the women who make up the bulk of the workforce that harvests shellfish, while men fishing offshore for open-water species retained more of their income.

Wildlife trafficking is one of the most lucrative and destructive criminal enterprises in the world. Valued at more than $20 billion annually, these criminal networks impact more than 4,000 plant and animal species across 162 countries and territories. Yet for decades enforcement efforts focused narrowly on poachers, missing the broader criminal foundation that makes the trade resilient: the corrupt officials, armed non-state actors, and agile transnational networks.

Devastating floods in Mokwa, a rural town in Niger State, claimed lives and destroyed homes and livelihoods in May 2025, and displaced many other residents as well. Yet, in Nigeria today, such flooding has become a predictable seasonal emergency. The real questions each year are not whether such floods will occur, but where they will happen—and if public institutions will act in time to prevent the next deluge from becoming yet another tragedy.

A window into what we’re reading in the Stimson Center’s Environmental Security Program 

The Bolivian Cacao Farmers Taking on the Gold-Mining Industry (The Guardian) 

Cacao farmers in Bolivia’s Alto Beni and Palos Blancos municipalities successfully pushed for local mining bans in 2021, protecting their organic agroforestry land from the destructive gold rush sweeping the region. Gold prices are up over 64% since 2020—intensifying illegal and legal mining across Bolivia, driving deforestation, mercury poisoning, flooding, and encroachment into protected national parks. Communities near active mining zones report polluted rivers, declining fish populations, and mercury-related illnesses.