At a recent Brookings Institution event titled Climate Change, Food Insecurity, and Migration in the Middle East, Ferid Belhaj, Vice President for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) at the World Bank, observed that the MENA region relies heavily on grain exported from both Ukraine and Russia. When the 2022 invasion reduced grain exports to a trickle, the entire region suffered heavily.

Northern Central America is experiencing a confluence of insecurity and migration challenges that are increasingly intertwined with climate change. What are the contours of this emergent convergence—and how can responses be developed and implemented more effectively?

Climate change has become part of our daily lexicon. Rarely does a week pass when a hurricane, drought, wildfire, or some other climate disruption is not front page news. These headlines often offer dire predictions of mass migration as well—a bracing vision of hordes of people moving to greener pastures, often found further inland and further north, where some political leaders leverage the narrative to push their own agendas.

The Population Institute’s recent report, Invisible Threads: Addressing the root causes of migration from Guatemala by investing in women and girls, has brought attention to the numerous factors that drive migration in Guatemala. One of the key factors addressed in the report is climate change, which is linked closely to issues concerning land in that country. To this day, multiple generations of indigenous women endure the effects of land displacement and inequities in access to land—as well as related social and economic pressures. In concert with other political, social, and economic problems, this particular challenge has resulted in large outflows of migrants from the region.

Migrant care work is a key component of the ongoing global care crisis. The global care economy is critical to overall economic growth, and also affects gender, racial, and class and caste equity and empowerment. Caregiving is also the fastest-growing economic sector in the world—projected to add 150 million jobs by 2030. Global societal changes, like low birth rates, demographic aging, and an increase in female labor force participation, are basic drivers of the continued growth of this sector. But because in many cultures care work is considered “instinctive” for women—a type of work not requiring skill—it has remained virtually invisible, unpaid or underpaid and unregulated. It is also often stigmatized, especially when relegated to already marginalized and underrepresented populations.

Abortion restrictions may create obstacles for legal access, but they do nothing to eliminate the need for life-saving reproductive healthcare. And when there is a lack of licit opportunities to obtain that care, patients find pathways to get it through alternative networks.

For instance, after the U.S. Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson decision in June 2022 reversed a decades-long precedent protecting the constitutional right to an abortion, social media and online forums were filled with reactions and resources alike. Among these interventions were viral posts circulated offering to host anyone going on a “camping” trip in a state with legally protected reproductive rights. These “camping trip” posts alluded to a willingness to aid and abet individuals traveling for abortions in states with legally-protected access—and they captured the complications and conflicts embedded in these responses to the ruling.

In recent years, a growing proportion of migrants at the US southern border have come from Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras. This surge of migrants from Central America has prompted the U.S. government to seek to better understand and address the root causes of migration from the region. One substantive response came in July 2021, under Executive Order 14010, when the Biden-Harris Administration released what has become known as the Root Causes Strategy. The White House pledged to commit $4 billion over four years on efforts to address drivers of irregular migration from these three countries.