Ukraine and its people will feel the effects of the Russian invasion for years to come. More than 6 million refugees have left Ukraine, another 8 million Ukrainians are internally displaced. Among those most impacted are Ukraine’s women and girls, who have a greater chance of experiencing gender-based violence, exploitation, and trafficking. They also face escalated maternal and newborn mortality rates stemming from lack of services and diminished care, as well as injuries and trauma due to the ongoing conflict. Less visibly, Ukrainians are confronting severe emotional distress and trauma.

As the world reels from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the pandemic, climate shocks, and other crises, strategic future planning is more important than ever. In April’s most-read article, Steven Gale points to a source of hope in the suite of inclusive, “future-forward” initiatives that are unfolding under UN leadership, from risk reporting to impact assessments and youth engagement. These activities, encompassed by the UN’s Our Common Agenda, represent a global collaborative effort to map future risks and identify policy options in service of long-term well-being for people and the planet.

“This is not the refugee wave we have been used to, people we were not sure about their identity, people with unclear pasts, who could have been even terrorists. In other words, there is not a single European country now which is afraid of the current wave of refugees.”

The humanitarian needs for those who are displaced are unprecedented, said Amb. Mark Green, President of the Wilson Center and former USAID Administrator, at a Doha Forum panel hosted by the Wilson Center’s Middle East Program.

“One of the challenges of responding to climate risks is that climate’s impacts and how those impacts interact with existing systems on the ground are so varied and specific to a given place,” said Lauren Risi, Director of the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change & Security Program, at a recent PeaceCon conference panel on climate change, violence, and migration in Central America. “But there is also an opportunity in how we respond to develop more agile, just, and sustaining programs and policies that go beyond a singular focus on responding to climate change and instead build the overall resilience of communities.” 

“In the movement toward complex solutions, at the heart of it all we’re talking about individuals with their own complex issues as they are moving through different scenarios,” said Shanna McClain, Disasters Program Manager with the National Atmospheric and Space Administration, at last month’s International Conference on Environmental Peacebuilding. The panel discussion, “Resource Implications of Human Mobility and Migration,” focused on what data shows—and doesn’t show—are the complex linkages between climate, conflict, and mobility. Panelists discussed how more integrated programming and policy actions are needed to make migration safe, orderly, and voluntary, and how to keep human rights at the center of the complex processes. 

“After a series of poor harvests, limited rainfall, and an increase in the price of fertilizer, farm work has become unprofitable,” said Lazher, a fellah (agricultural laborer) from Tataouine in the rural south east of Tunisia. The 45-year-old had worked the land for half his life, even dropping out of school early to support his young family. However, when I met Lazher in December 2021, he was making the final arrangements to migrate to Tunisia’s capital, Tunis, in search of better job opportunities. Now, with diminishing local opportunities for agricultural work and few local companies that might hire unemployed laborers, Lazher secured work in one of Tunis’s many dried fruit shops called hamas.