In recent decades, the international system has undergone profound changes—especially in terms of the types of threats that destabilize international peace and security. As new threats emerge, a focus on new dimensions of the concept of security is now reaching the top of the international agenda. In this context, the global freshwater crisis is beginning to be perceived as an existential threat to states requiring extraordinary measures to alleviate or solve the problem.

Waters that cross international political borders can drive the countries that share them to conflict—or encourage cooperation between them. Indeed, since the 1940s, overall trends point to a tendency for countries to cooperate over shared water resources, which stands in stark contrast to media portrayals of “water wars.”

Yet instances of conflict over water have increased slightly since 2000. Why? Most of them are fueled by water quantity disputes or the unilateral development of dams or other infrastructure. Institutions often play a key role in facilitating cooperation (and reducing conflict) over shared waters, but their growth and adoption have slowed over the last two to three decades.

By 2050, two-thirds of the population will face some form of water stress. As a fundamental part of life, water—or a lack of it—influences other parts of life, including conflict. In fact, as author Marcus King notes in his new book, Weaponizing Water: Water Stress and Islamic Extremist Violence in Africa and the Middle East, there is a “correlation between the spheres of influence of violent extremist organizations (VEOs) and the driest lands or areas of sparse vegetation in some of the most arid regions on earth.”

The amount of critical minerals required to develop low-carbon energy technologies is predicted to be six times higher than what is needed today. Yet meeting this demand is necessary to enable a global transition that will address climate change and  comply with agreements such as the European Green New Deal.

On February 25, Nigeria will begin voting for its new president in one of the most tightly fought elections in decades. And the most likely winner has already set down a marker in his campaign. “You can’t be talking about climate change when people are taking cover from bombs,” observed Nigerian presidential hopeful Peter Obi.

On July 28, 2022 the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) voted—by a count of 161 in favor, with 8 abstentions — that living in a clean, healthy, and sustainable environment is a human right. Building on the similar declaration by the UN Human Rights Council in October 2021, the UNGA has now reinforced the notion that the growing assaults on human health through environmental hazards are transgressions against the basic rights and freedoms of people.

When Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, it was not only a geopolitical and humanitarian disaster. The conflict has detrimentally impacted the environment.

War and environmental damage are inextricably linked, but the invasion of Ukraine has caused further deterioration in pre-existing environmental issues. “Before 2014, Ukraine was already a country which faced environmental challenges,” observed Ian Anthony, Director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative’s European Security Program (SIPRI) at a December 14 webinar titled Beyond War Ecologies: Green Ways forward for Ukraine. “Russia’s first aggression in 2014 exacerbated problems. The second aggression extended some of the problems to other parts of Ukraine and not just to Donbas.”

Water sustains life on our planet. And access to clean and safe water is foundational to society. So why has it only been in recent years that water has risen to the top of discussions of climate and security? Richard W. Spinrad, the Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and NOAA Administrator, says that one of the biggest reasons is the major impact that climate-related changes in precipitation like droughts and extreme rainfall are having across the globe: “We’re starting to see things like we’ve never seen before. The nature of storms is changing: We saw five feet of rain fall in Hurricane Harvey. Five feet.”