A window into what we’re reading at the Stimson Center’s Environmental Security Program 

“Intractable” systemic problems mean carbon offsets fail to cut global heating  (The Guardian) 

A recent review of 25 years of evidence found that carbon credit quality issues stem from deep-seated structural flaws, and not isolated cases of fraud. Researchers point to four major flaws that undermine most carbon offset projects. The worst problems include issuing credits for already-planned projects, impermanent solutions (forests that later burn), incidences of leakage (such as protecting one forest area while pushing logging elsewhere), and double-counting which allows both seller and buyer to claim the same emission reduction.  

Indonesia is at the heart of the next decade of growth in Asia. It also is at the frontier of Chinese industry’s move to develop clean energy markets overseas. The Indonesian government and Chinese investors are aligned on a narrative of decarbonization, but on the ground, coal remains central.

Cobalt, lithium, and copper are the critical minerals necessary to produce rechargeable lithium-ion-based batteries, and they are central to the electric vehicle (EV) supply chains in the energy transition. The importance of these minerals—and China’s strategic control of them—now compels the United States and its allies to diversify their supply chains for this essential resource.

In April 2024, Thai government officials traveled to the Chinese provinces of Fujian and Guangdong with a single-point agenda – convincing the leading Chinese electric vehicle (EV) battery makers to invest in their country. Two months later, the global leader in the EV battery industry, China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology Limited (CATL), announced an initial investment of over $100 million to set up an assembly plant in collaboration with a local Thai state-owned company.

At the recent G20 meeting in June 2024 in Rio de Janeiro, United Nations Secretary General António Guterres gave an ominous warning: “Unless we limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius, spiraling disasters will devastate every economy.” Guterres implored governments to “speed-up the just transition from fossil fuels to renewables,” and declared that “the end of the fossil fuel age is inevitable.”

It is widely recognized that oil states are rarely democratic, and often conflict-prone. As these governments wind down their dependence on this toxic resource as part of broader global efforts to decarbonize, one might imagine that the end of oil will spell a better future for the citizens of oil-producing countries. Sadly, a look at the cases of fragile fossil fuel producing states (FFFPs) suggests that this may not be the case.

A window into what we’re reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program 

Humanitarians Highlight the Climate-Conflict Nexus  (The New Humanitarian) 

Climate change’s disproportionate impacts on vulnerable populations exacerbate socioeconomic inequalities and conflict, particularly during natural disasters. This vexed connection has led humanitarians and peacebuilders increasingly to address climate and conflict challenges together in order to provide integrated relief, recovery, and aid.