In April 2024, Thai government officials traveled to the Chinese provinces of Fujian and Guangdong with a single-point agenda – convincing the leading Chinese electric vehicle (EV) battery makers to invest in their country. Two months later, the global leader in the EV battery industry, China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology Limited (CATL), announced an initial investment of over $100 million to set up an assembly plant in collaboration with a local Thai state-owned company.

In 2019, at the height of the trade war with the United States, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited a rare earth magnet factory in Jiangxi Province. At the time, the visit was interpreted as “muscle flexing” by China’s leader to remind Washington of its dependence on Beijing for the supply of rare earths. Rare earth elements (REEs) – a group of 17 critical metals – are indispensable components in military defense systems, consumer electronics and renewable energy technologies. Despite more than a decade of sustained efforts by Western countries and companies to loosen China’s grip, Beijing, by far remains the top player in the REE global mining, processing and refining sectors. 

Critical minerals—and the soaring demand for them—are a key challenge for policymakers and analysts around the world. The factors driving that demand, especially energy transition technologies like electric vehicle batteries, are usually the focus of discussion. But the story of critical minerals is two-sided; it features both demand and supply. 

On October 27, 2010, after meeting with her Japanese counterpart, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton expressed concerns over allegations of a Chinese ban on exports of Rare Earth Elements to Japan. “This served as a wakeup call,” she announced while advocating for “additional sources of supply.” Beijing’s alleged ban came after skirmishes in the disputed Senkaku Island waters. But apart from Japan, not many countries acted on the wake-up call.