Indonesia is at the heart of the next decade of growth in Asia. It also is at the frontier of Chinese industry’s move to develop clean energy markets overseas. The Indonesian government and Chinese investors are aligned on a narrative of decarbonization, but on the ground, coal remains central.

Indonesia’s economy is on a roll. The archipelago nation harbors ambitions for 8% growth a year on its growing strength as an exporter of coal, palm oil, LNG, and stainless steel made from its booming nickel mining industry.

Investments from China are driving this growth—and run the gamut from traditionally dirty industries (mining, steel, and aluminum) to the crown jewels of Chinese clean energy tech: batteries,  electric vehicles (EVs), and solar panel production. In 2023, Xinyi Glass, the world’s largest solar PV panel maker, announced an 11.5 billion USD investment in a quartz sand processing plant in Indonesia. 

The Wutongshan River flows through the east suburbs of Shenzhen and the basin is an important ecological zone for Shenzhen, which is often referred to as the “lungs of Shenzhen.” Rich in plant and animal resources, this area is the city’s natural museum and a genetic reservoir for flora and fauna. The river importantly provides 70% of Hong Kong’s and 40% of Shenzhen’s water. 

On Son Island in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta, Le Trung Tin scatters fish feed into his ponds, where dozens of snakehead fish leap through the surface in synchronised bursts. “I taught them how to do that,” he says proudly, tossing another handful of feed at his fish.

The scene looks idyllic, but Le’s fish farm is a reluctant response to an escalating crisis. For decades, he made his living fishing the Hau River, a distributary of the Mekong. But in recent years, plastic waste clogged his nets and strangled the fish. “I had no choice but to stop,” he says. “Everything was tangled – trash, nets, even the fish themselves. It was hopeless.”

Indonesia is the world’s largest producer and exporter of palm oil, an ingredient used globally in a huge variety of food and household products from peanut butter to shampoo. Yet it is also an important driver of deforestation and contributor to climate change and biodiversity loss. Over the past 20 years, the expansion of palm oil plantations has contributed one-third of the total loss of old-growth forests in Indonesia (around 3 million hectares).

The Mahakam River flows for 900 km from the highlands of central Borneo through thick rainforest before fanning into a lush delta that feeds the Makassar Strait. Once dense with mangroves and palms, the wetland islands protected coastal communities, supported biodiversity and served as a significant carbon sink.

However, in the 1980s, shrimp ponds began replacing the mangroves. By 2020, around half of the delta’s forests were lost due to weak regulatory enforcement and inadequate environmental protection. This large-scale deforestation increased the area’s vulnerability to climate change.

In spring 2024, I travelled in the Mekong Delta with Vietnamese researchers to investigate the country’s dwindling mangroves. 

One day while hiking along the coastline of Bac Liu Province in southern Vietnam, we came across the remains of a once-flourishing mangrove forest now littered by countless concrete blocks. My colleagues noted that the decades-long trend of disappearing mangroves here seemed to be unstoppable. 

While standing on the banks of the Mahakam River in Samarinda on the island of Borneo, I watched an unending parade of coal barges sail slowly down the river. I was here in East Kalimantan to give a presentation at the Vulnerable Deltas Workshop—a joint project of the East-West Center and the Wilson Center’s China Environment Forum.