Somewhat worrisome development out of Nepal today, with the U.N.'s local mission reporting that both the Nepalese army and Maoist armed forces are looking to step up their recruiting efforts. The push to bring new soldiers into the fold violates the terms of the 2006 peace treaty Maoists signed with the central government to bring an end to the country's decade-long civil war.

For more, click here.

Historically, the Nepalese have been very wary of Indian meddling in their internal affairs. But during the civil war years (1996-2006), the Indian government (along with several other governments, including the U.S.) did provide military and economic aid to help prop up the central Nepalese government. I think if we were to see a new outbreak of civil war in the country, India would likely resume that sort of aid, because it has no interest in seeing a Maoist insurgency regain traction in Nepal. (As Schuyler Null wrote in the New Security Beat earlier this summer, India has had problem enough trying to contend with a Maoist insurgency on its own turf.)

In terms of your second question, domestic instability in Nepal would almost certainly halt the country's progress on the path toward sustainable energy development. A lot of the country's prime hydroelectric sites lie far off the beaten path, in rural areas where populations are more likely to sympathize with the Maoists. If Maoists decided to once again take up arms against the government, you can bet that any planned hydroelectric development in those areas — Sapta Kosi included — would ground to a standstill.

Benjamin, I think your initial instinct is right, that the MWR Group is a company, not a political outfit. I honestly haven't seen too much written up about them in the context of the debate of hydroelectric development in Nepal.

In terms of the Maoist's party formal name, it's known these days as the Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-M). Local CPN-M officials in eastern Nepal have been objecting to Sapta Kosi largely on the grounds that the central government is paying little to no attention to the needs (or probable forced relocations) of populations that would be impacted by the dam, the reservoir, etc. And I've heard the same numbers as you in terms of villages that stand to be submerged — somewhere in the neighborhood of 80. I'd take those estimates with a grain of salt, though, since they came from CPN-M spokespeople, and can't be independently confirmed. But suffice to say, at least some villages would be flooded, and that's enough to make it an issue of pressing public concern.

Who would benefit from the energy produced from a project like Sapta Kosi? That's an open question. Without a doubt, some of it will be consumed within Nepal. But in terms of exact percentages, I think that's far from certain. And of course, one of the reasons India has been helping out in developing Nepal's hydroelectric potential is because it sees itself as the recipient of Nepalese energy exports at some point in the future. So it's safe to say that at least some of Nepal's hydroelectric energy could be shipped abroad.