Around the world, conflict and environmental risks are on the rise – and they’re often connected in complex ways. In the past five years alone, the number of global conflicts has doubled. At the same time, human activity is pushing the planet beyond the ‘safe operating space’, increasing the risk of instability.

Researchers studying the links between conflict and environmental change have found that war and violence almost always harm the environment. But the reverse connection – whether environmental stress leads to conflict – is much harder to pin down. That’s because political systems, local institutions, and social dynamics often shape how environmental pressures play out.

Findings from recent studies suggest that sustainability and peace are positively correlated. In other words, the results suggest that peace and sustainability go hand in hand. If true, pursuing one could help achieve the other. But what if it’s not that simple?

When Secretary of State Marco Rubio formally declared the “era” of USAID over on March 28, 2025, it represented an extraordinary sea change for US foreign aid deployed over the past six decades.

Yet the world has changed dramatically since the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) was established by the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961 in the middle of the Cold War. So, there is every reason to thoughtfully consider what foreign aid should look like today as we navigate an era of Great Power Competition (GPC).

“It seems like the news is always bad, right?” observed retired climate and atmospheric scientist James Kossin in a BBC interview last autumn.

Kossin was describing how climate change is weakening the wind shear patterns that have helped lessen the impacts of tropical cyclones in the United States. And, indeed, there is mounting evidence for his observation.

In an era of apparent decline in international cooperation and rising crises, freshwater offers an area in which joint approaches remain absolutely essential—especially since water often transcends the boundaries of nation-states. 

Cooperation has long been the preferred approach in dealing with water resources shared with neighboring countries. Since the first—and so far, only—water war in 2550 B.C.E., states have favored cooperative action over conflict to manage, protect, or develop our planet’s 313 transboundary surface water basins and 468 transboundary aquifers.

Syria finds itself at a crossroads. Faced with the imminent need to prevent a relapse into renewed short-term insecurity, its government also must start to develop longer-term strategies to support recovery.

Generating peace dividends for Syria’s embattled population requires confronting the ecological threats which currently undermine basic human security across the country. Nowhere do these threats emerge more prominently than in its agricultural sector. Ensuring that this essential sector lives up to its potential as an engine for economic stabilization and peace will require a set of targeted – and climate-sensitive – investments and interventions.  

As 2025 marches into its third month, the governance challenges that accompany rising demand for natural resources are not only on the front burner—they are proliferating—and  becoming entangled with the drivers of conflict and cooperation.

The heated competition for resources has bubbled up in a proposed billion-dollar deal for Ukrainian minerals now making global headlines. The view that critical minerals like lithium, manganese, and others could become bargaining chips in potential peace talks demonstrates how central they’ve become to global competition—and to the economic and political future of countries around the world.

A window into what we’re reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program

EU Parliament Suspends Rwandan Critical Mineral Pact Over Links to DRC Conflict (Mongabay)

Rwanda and the DRC both have large reserves of critical minerals essential to the clean energy transition. Yet the EU has voted to suspend a cooperation agreement on mineral extraction in the region after the Rwandan-backed rebel group M23 seized key areas in the DRC’s eastern provinces.

Dr. Ashok Swain is a professor of peace and conflict research at Uppsala University in Sweden and founding Editor-in-Chief of the journal, Environment and Security. An expert on environment, development, and security issues, Swain has long had an eye for recognizing emerging security challenges. In his new book, Climate Security, Swain explores climate change’s connection to some of the key issues driving today’s security discourse, including the role of misinformation in hindering climate action, climate’s role in the growing displacement crisis, and how climate-driven shifts in territory and resources are reshaping geopolitics. Swain gave us a sneak peak of the book’s key insights, including the potential for a new international governance framework to address climate-related security risks.