The annual multilateral Conference of the Parties (COP) has become one of the most important meetings on the global agenda. So the fact that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will host COP28 starting this week in Dubai—on the coattails of another Arab country, Egypt, hosting COP27 in 2022—is a big deal. Bringing such important international meetings to the Global South is a step forward in decentering and reorienting global climate action.

Future projections of social disturbance due to climate change and ecological pressures provide little optimism for peace in conflict-affected areas over the coming decades. Yet, can we identify current hotspots and future areas of conflict risk? The fourth Ecological Threat Report (ETR), produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace, attempts to do so by taking on the monumental task of evaluating the relationship between ecological threats and peace.

The new report documents a world of growing ecological threats and declining social resilience in the states and territories most vulnerable to a changing climate. And by assessing ecological threats, societal resilience, and levels of peacefulness at the state, territorial, subnational, and city levels, the report also finds a strong correlation between ecological threats and levels of peacefulness.

A window into what we are reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program

A Fifth National Climate Assessment

The US Global Change Research Program launched the fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA)  on Monday, November 13. Published once every five years, the NCA is the United States’ leading report on climate change impacts, risks, and responses.

Nowhere is China’s critical mineral dominance greater than in rare earth supply chains. In 2022, the US government estimated that China controlled “nearly 60 percent of mined production, over 85 percent of processing capacity, and over 90 percent of permanent magnet production.”

The global transition to low-carbon energy is spurring new momentum to produce and secure the mineral inputs necessary for renewable technologies. Yet meeting demand may prove difficult. From electric cars to wind turbines, essential renewable energy technologies often require more minerals than fossil fuel-powered infrastructure. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that efforts to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement could lead to a fourfold increase in mineral demand by 2040.

Many developing countries today face the dual challenges of development and decarbonization, racing against climate change that makes the latter increasingly urgent. This dilemma brings China’s railway investments in Africa under the spotlight. Can stakeholders of these megaprojects achieve the goal of boosting host countries’ economies while mitigating the socio-environmental risks of these ventures?