Indonesia is at the heart of the next decade of growth in Asia. It also is at the frontier of Chinese industry’s move to develop clean energy markets overseas. The Indonesian government and Chinese investors are aligned on a narrative of decarbonization, but on the ground, coal remains central.

Indonesia’s economy is on a roll. The archipelago nation harbors ambitions for 8% growth a year on its growing strength as an exporter of coal, palm oil, LNG, and stainless steel made from its booming nickel mining industry.

Investments from China are driving this growth—and run the gamut from traditionally dirty industries (mining, steel, and aluminum) to the crown jewels of Chinese clean energy tech: batteries,  electric vehicles (EVs), and solar panel production. In 2023, Xinyi Glass, the world’s largest solar PV panel maker, announced an 11.5 billion USD investment in a quartz sand processing plant in Indonesia. 

A window into what we’re reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program 

Humanitarians Highlight the Climate-Conflict Nexus  (The New Humanitarian) 

Climate change’s disproportionate impacts on vulnerable populations exacerbate socioeconomic inequalities and conflict, particularly during natural disasters. This vexed connection has led humanitarians and peacebuilders increasingly to address climate and conflict challenges together in order to provide integrated relief, recovery, and aid.

Indonesia is the world’s largest producer and exporter of palm oil, an ingredient used globally in a huge variety of food and household products from peanut butter to shampoo. Yet it is also an important driver of deforestation and contributor to climate change and biodiversity loss. Over the past 20 years, the expansion of palm oil plantations has contributed one-third of the total loss of old-growth forests in Indonesia (around 3 million hectares).

The Mahakam River flows for 900 km from the highlands of central Borneo through thick rainforest before fanning into a lush delta that feeds the Makassar Strait. Once dense with mangroves and palms, the wetland islands protected coastal communities, supported biodiversity and served as a significant carbon sink.

However, in the 1980s, shrimp ponds began replacing the mangroves. By 2020, around half of the delta’s forests were lost due to weak regulatory enforcement and inadequate environmental protection. This large-scale deforestation increased the area’s vulnerability to climate change.

While standing on the banks of the Mahakam River in Samarinda on the island of Borneo, I watched an unending parade of coal barges sail slowly down the river. I was here in East Kalimantan to give a presentation at the Vulnerable Deltas Workshop—a joint project of the East-West Center and the Wilson Center’s China Environment Forum.

In the last months of 2023, 30 landfills caught fire in Indonesia, highlighting a dangerous health risk and a symptom of the country’s failing waste management system. Most of these landfills are overflowing open dump sites. Moreover, not all waste ends up here, as large amounts — particularly low-value plastics like sachets and pouches — are never collected. Indonesia ranks among the top 10 global plastic polluters. The country generates 7.8 million tons of plastic waste annually, 63% of which is mismanaged. Most of these mismanaged plastics are thrown into rivers, dump sites or burnt by individuals, releasing toxic substances into the air. 

During a visit to Vietnam in November 2023, I cringed as my aunt tossed our now empty bánh mì plastic bag onto the sidewalk. “It doesn’t really matter,” she shrugged, “there aren’t any nearby trash cans anyway.” Finding a trash can wouldn’t have helped much, as two-thirds of Vietnam’s plastic waste ends up burnt, landfilled, or leaked.