The increased demand for minerals driven by the renewable energy transition has put China’s involvement in mining activities in Africa in the spotlight. But understanding the challenges posed by this activity means we need to situate it within broader contexts.

The Central Sahel is increasingly deemed the new epicenter of terrorism, accounting for 35 percent of global terrorism deaths in 2021. Yet as the situation in the region continues to deteriorate, artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) both persists and proliferates. For instance, in Mali, where much of the region’s security crisis originates, this conundrum is laid bare.

The technology that is an essential part of clean energy and the future economy relies heavily on critical minerals. Electric vehicles (EVs), computers, wind turbines, and even defense technology require large mineral inputs, raising concerns over the stability of supply chains and the ability to meet growing demand. An IEA report published in 2021 predicts that demand for critical minerals will escalate over the next two decades, with increases of “40 percent for copper and rare earth elements, 60 to 70 percent for nickel and cobalt, and almost 90 percent for lithium.”

Russia’s brutal aggression has wreaked devastation in Ukraine for more than a year. It has also forced a fundamental rethink of geopolitics. Central to that new thinking is the role of energy security and how to manage the insecurities created by the lopsided dependencies exposed by the conflict.

In the early 1960s, Soviet fulfillment officers at the Berezniki and Zaporozh’ye ilmenite mines must have noticed an uptick in worldwide demand for titanium. Orders for titanium sponge were increasing around the globe, and the Soviet Union reacted by increasing production rapidly.

Yet some of these deliveries resulting from this boost in production were not reaching their intended customers. In fact, some of their customers didn’t even exist. Little did the Soviet producers know that it was actually the CIA on the receiving end of these shipments.

At a recent Wilson Center event on the shifting geopolitics of critical minerals, Cory Combs, Associate Director at Beijing-based Trivium China, noted that “the nature of global resource competition is changing—and quite rapidly.”

The amount of critical minerals required to develop low-carbon energy technologies is predicted to be six times higher than what is needed today. Yet meeting this demand is necessary to enable a global transition that will address climate change and  comply with agreements such as the European Green New Deal.