“It seems like the news is always bad, right?” observed retired climate and atmospheric scientist James Kossin in a BBC interview last autumn.

Kossin was describing how climate change is weakening the wind shear patterns that have helped lessen the impacts of tropical cyclones in the United States. And, indeed, there is mounting evidence for his observation.

As 2025 marches into its third month, the governance challenges that accompany rising demand for natural resources are not only on the front burner—they are proliferating—and  becoming entangled with the drivers of conflict and cooperation.

The heated competition for resources has bubbled up in a proposed billion-dollar deal for Ukrainian minerals now making global headlines. The view that critical minerals like lithium, manganese, and others could become bargaining chips in potential peace talks demonstrates how central they’ve become to global competition—and to the economic and political future of countries around the world.

Much of the current narrative surrounding critical minerals puts speed and competition in the foreground. Yet the how of mining matters immensely to create and maintain stable mineral supply chains. Reliable and diversified supply chains create win-win scenarios for all stakeholders by incorporating best-in-class environmental standards and true community partnerships.

In December 2024, China banned exports of gallium, germanium, and antimony to the United States. Prices for these critical minerals soon reached all-time highs. The ban emphasized China’s dominance over the sector, including practically the entire graphite supply chain, 87% of rare earths refining, 70% of cobalt refining, and 60% of battery-grade lithium refining. 

A window into what we’re reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program

EU Parliament Suspends Rwandan Critical Mineral Pact Over Links to DRC Conflict (Mongabay)

Rwanda and the DRC both have large reserves of critical minerals essential to the clean energy transition. Yet the EU has voted to suspend a cooperation agreement on mineral extraction in the region after the Rwandan-backed rebel group M23 seized key areas in the DRC’s eastern provinces.

A window into what we’re reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program

Indonesia Considers Paris Agreement Exit Following US Withdrawal (Mongabay)

The US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement has led other countries to reconsider their commitments to the international environmental treaty. In Indonesia, for instance, top officials have questioned whether developing countries should be expected to comply with the agreement as major polluters (including the US) opt out.

Cobalt, lithium, and copper are the critical minerals necessary to produce rechargeable lithium-ion-based batteries, and they are central to the electric vehicle (EV) supply chains in the energy transition. The importance of these minerals—and China’s strategic control of them—now compels the United States and its allies to diversify their supply chains for this essential resource.