As an inhabitant of the Himalayan region of Nepal, where 8 of the 10 highest peaks of the world are situated, I am experiencing first hand several environmental stresses and insecurities. Many of the high mountains I can see from my village, once covered in snow, are turning black. Neighboring areas are experiencing massive out-migration and demographic changes. Consequently, agriculture in the region is facing an unprecedented crisis.

Pakistan ranks eighth on the list of countries most affected by extreme weather events (1998–2017 data), according to the 2019 Global Risk Index. With increasing global temperatures, severe weather and water events, like monsoons and droughts, are likely to become even more frequent and extreme in the future. Since the 1960s, Pakistan has observed changes in temperature and precipitation. By the end of the century, Pakistan’s temperatures are expected to be significantly higher than the global average.

For two weeks, Hurricane Dorian, one of the strongest hurricanes to make landfall in the Pacific, decimated large swaths of the Caribbean displacing 70,000 people and killing at least 50. Natural disasters like Hurricane Dorian in the Caribbean have only been worsening over the last decade, a trend often attributed to warming oceanic and atmospheric temperatures.

The Horn of Africa faces critical security and climate risks. Persistent droughts have precipitated the onset of food insecurity and waterborne disease, while heavy rain events such as Cyclone Sagar have caused widespread flooding, mudslides, and wind damage. These challenges are increasing in severity against a backdrop of changing demographic trends—including rapid population growth, increased migration, and urbanization—and power struggles both within and between countries in the region.  

By 2050, the UN estimates that 52 percent of the world’s population will be at risk for water insecurity. Climate change is threatening water availability through increased temperatures and drought, unpredictable rain, and the growing threat of more pollution. Globally, most wastewater reenters the water cycle without being treated, introducing dangerous unseen particles including pharmaceuticals, diseases, and larger waste products such as plastics.

Years ago, Mohamed’s family had enough to eat, despite being poor. His daughter owned a vegetable stall at a bustling market in northeastern Nigeria. The family had options: during the dry season, when Lake Chad was shallow, Mohamed could farm; and during the wet season, he could fish or graze his cattle.

Evidence that extreme weather, water, and climate events pose critical security risks to the U.S. homeland, national security, and global stability has been mounting in recent years. From destabilizing droughts in Africa to devastating hurricanes and flooding in the United States, we are clearly seeing an increase in not only the frequency and severity of these events, but also their physical, social, and economic impacts.

The UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction recently released the fifth edition of the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR19). The report highlights the increasingly complex interaction between hazards, and provides an update on how risk and risk reduction are understood in practice. GAR19 also highlights how the latest Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) framework integrates into global goals such as the Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. To better understand the scope and significance of this report, New Security Beat sat down with Roger Pulwarty, Senior Scientist at NOAA, and a lead author of the GAR19.