The recent floods and landslides in Brazil, displacing almost 100,000 and killing at least 100, reminds us that climate change-fueled extreme weather, combined with an intense El Niño, is a deadly combination. Governor Eduardo Leite of the southern Brazilian province, Rio Grande du Sol, described the devastation the region was subjected to as “unprecedented.” As President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva noted: “We need to stop running behind disasters. We need to see in advance what calamities might happen and we need to work.”

The potential threat climate change poses to peace and security is perhaps nowhere more apparent than in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are one way MENA countries can address this compound risk.

Historically, efforts to mitigate climate change have taken precedence over building resilience to its impacts. But from Pakistan to the Amazon, communities on the front lines are already experiencing the devastating effects of a warming world.

In recent weeks, devastating floods have claimed the lives of over 450 people in East Africa, as heavy rains linked to El Niño and changing climate patterns overwhelmed communities and infrastructure. Similar tragedies unfolding in Brazil, Pakistan, and Afghanistan underscore the human cost of being unequipped to protect against the worst impacts of climate change.

The contentious and ambiguous entanglement that military forces have with their natural environment inevitably sparkles public interest and academic research. So how does the existing scholarly work inform our assessment of this convergence?

Central and South Asia’s water resources are critical for the region’s water, energy, food and environmental security. Major rivers in the region originate from the Hindu-Kush-Himalaya, Pamir, and Tien Shan Mountain Ranges and flow across multiple countries. Unique geographical characteristics make water management a complex and challenging task that is further complicated by a changing climate and increasing demand affecting diminishing water resources. 

Climate change’s potential to aggravate insecurity, particularly through violent conflict, has created a fear that is both widespread and justified. Civil and defense ministries around the world now include climate impacts in their strategic planning, and climate security assessments have become a common policy tool.