More than 11,300 people are confirmed to have died in the floods that struck eastern Libya on September 11, 2023, far surpassing many estimates of the death toll in the country’s 2011 civil war. Thousands are still missing. Flooding has washed away approximately 25% of the city of Derna, and damage to roads and bridges is curtailing emergency service access. A rapid attribution study estimated that the extreme rain was at least a “1-in-300 year event.” This is far beyond previously recorded incidents, yet such incidents are now up to 50 times more likely—and up to 50% more intense—when compared to a 1.2°C cooler climate. 

A window into what we are reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program

A Warming World is Accelerating the Spread of Dengue

Dengue is now endemic in most Latin American countries. But scientists warn that a warming climate is increasing the pace of breeding and transmission of dengue-carrying mosquitoes, and bring them into new countries.

When catastrophic floods struck civil war-ridden Libya in the late summer of 2023, the catastrophe caused over 10,000 deaths and wreaked immense destruction throughout the nation’s northeastern regions. But because none of the warring factions were in full control of the country and international responders were concerned about being caught in the crossfire, relief efforts were delayed and limited. This confluence of factors amplified human suffering, particularly in Libya’s remote and worst-affected areas.

A window into what we are reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program

Converging Crises: Pakistan Flood Victims Face Rising Hunger

According to FAO, Pakistan ranks among the top-ten world producers of wheat, cotton, sugarcane, and mango—and it is the 10^th largest producer of rice. But Pakistan is also atop another world ranking: vulnerability to the impacts of global warming.

In 2021, US Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III referred to climate change as an “existential threat”—a term traditionally reserved for nuclear weapons. Yet two years and several strategic plans later, tangible progress to mitigate and prepare for this threat remains elusive, especially on the international scale where the greatest impacts could be realized.

A window into what we are reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program

Treading Water: Why Were Libya’s Floods So Devastating? 

This week’s devastating disasters in Morocco and Libya underscore the cascading effects of environmental shocks (and in the case of Libya, climate-related shocks), as well as the cross-sectoral response needed to comprehensively address the damage. 

When COP28 begins in the United Arab Emirates in late November of this year, the multifaceted connections between climate and conflict are expected to receive greater attention from participants than they have at previous conferences.  

While there is scant direct causal evidence to suggest that climate change causes conflict, there is a growing body of information that it can influence the risk of conflict by hurting economies, changing broad patterns of human behavior and movement, and straining social cleavages.  

A window into what we are reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program

Deforestation Dynamics in Colombia: The Role of Armed Groups

A 29% drop in deforestation in Colombia in 2022 was labeled as a victory for President Gustavo Petro. Yet there is another reason behind the decrease. Armed groups, such as the Estado Mayor Central (EMC), have imposed logging bans in areas under their control, and levy fines amounting to 251 dollars per hectare.