A window into what we are reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program

Southern Africa’s Drought Offers a Window into the Region’s Climate Future

Southern Africa has been hit by one of its worst droughts in decades, and this calamity highlights the vulnerability of smallholder farmers who rely on rainfed agriculture. For the first time, farmers like Esnart Chogani, who works on a farm just outside Zambia’s capital, Lusaka, were unable to bring in a harvest. The region is normally a major exporter of maize, yet it now has begun importing the grain to meet demand.

This new drought, driven by El Niño and climate change, has raised temperatures significantly above average and disrupted rainfall patterns, and is now pushing southern Africa to its limits. The result has been food scarcity, increased food prices, and millions in need of urgent humanitarian assistance. Faced with failed crops and rising food prices, some farmers and villagers have resorted to cutting down trees for charcoal production. They see it as a means of survival, despite the environmental damage and illegality of this action.

Future droughts magnified by the doubling impact of climate change and the El Niño cycle will likely make things worse in regions like southern Africa, promising the most extreme impacts of climate change: less rainfall, increased droughts on average, and the potential for more intense tropical storms. This situation underscores the urgent need for climate-resilient agricultural practices and support systems to ensure food security in the face of extreme weather events. 

READ | The “Fuel of the Future” and Water Insecurity in South Africa’s Platinum Belt

UN Chief Discusses the Impact of Global Trends on Developing Countries

Hamid Rashid, Chief of the UN Economic Monitoring Branch, highlighted the impact of inflation, ongoing conflicts, and emerging investment areas on developing countries in a new interview. Although inflation has decreased since 2022, he insisted that it continues to be a significant concern, particularly affecting the standard of living and economic stability in developing nations. High inflation in developing countries leads to reduced spending, thereby slowing economic growth. “It boils down to standard of living,” Rashid said. “If prices rise faster than wage growth, you’re effectively worse off in real terms.” And in many developing countries, that is the case.

Other issues also loom large. While the wars in Ukraine and Gaza have caused initial spikes in grain and oil price, global markets have effectively adapted by finding alternative shipping routes. Yet the restriction of the Red Sea trade route and broader geopolitical risks have driven up freight costs, leading to downgraded economic growth forecasts for many African countries. 

As investment in new sectors, such as critical minerals, ramps up, there is increasing concern that a new “resource curse” could emerge. The transition to a green economy necessitates careful management to avoid this pitfall by adding value to raw materials through innovation and investments in manufacturing. Rashid emphasized the need for mineral-rich countries to take ownership of the manufacturing processes that utilize these minerals as inputs.

READ | Want to Beat Global Warming? Beat Global Indebtedness First

A Victory for Small Island States in Ocean Court

The International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) has ruled that greenhouse gasses absorbed by oceans are classified as marine pollution. Despite only being an “advisory opinion,” this ruling marks a significant new legal recognition, and sets a precedent for future legal cases globally.

The ruling mandates that countries must exceed the Paris Agreement’s requirements, with a legal obligation to monitor and reduce emissions based on the best available science. This elevates the standards for environmental impact assessments and targets for cutting greenhouse emissions.  

The ITLOS decision is a victory for small island nations vulnerable to climate change, and highlights their long-standing concerns about inadequate global action. It also underscores the potential influence of this ruling on future climate cases in international courts, where new eeforts will be made to press major polluters to be held accountable for their contributions to climate change.

 READ | China’s Growing Environmental Footprint in the Caribbean