“African countries are facing a severe health crisis. As of this morning, there are 14,573 confirmed cases of Covid-19 and 790 deaths in 52 out of 54 countries,” said Judd Devermont, director the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Africa Program, at an April 13th event on the impacts of Covid-19 in Africa. The World Health Organization has estimated a 5 percent drop in Africa’s GDP and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) believes that as many as 20 million jobs will be lost. There is also a political dimension to this crisis, as governments struggle to deliver services, provide safety and security, and allow people to continue livelihoods, said Judd.

“Africa, thus far, has had less than 1 percent of the global cases of Covid-19,” said Wafaa El-Sadr, a professor of Epidemiology and Medicine at Columbia University. While South Africa has the highest number of cases, North Africa is the worst hit region, with the number of cases rapidly increasing in Algeria and Egypt. The response to this pandemic needs to be tailored around four stages—identification, containment, control and mitigation, and elimination or eradication, said El-Sadr. While many countries in Africa have put in place containment and mitigation measures, more challenges will arise as the disease spreads further into the continent. There are many lessons to be learned globally, as well as from African countries, to be better prepared and able to control future pandemics, said El-Sadr.  

“Even though the health burden at this stage is fairly small compared to elsewhere in the world, the economic implications really started quite early in Africa,” said Marius Oosthuizen, a professor at the Gordon Institute of Business Science, University of Pretoria. Given Africa’s relationship to China, Europe, and the United States in terms of commodity exports, and reliance on those countries for durable goods imports, the supply side collapse associated with the pandemic is negatively impacting Africa’s economy. In the next quarter, estimates place the contraction of GDP for African countries at 15 or 20 percent. There are many challenges to overcome before we see Africa returning to a high growth environment, said Oosthuizen.  

There are 15 elections scheduled in Africa between now and the end of the year, said Jakkie Cilliers, founder and former Executive Director of the Institute for Security Studies (ISS). Covid-19 could lead to the postponement of some of these elections. Other elections could be held with low voter turnout, helping some leaders stay in power. “I think we are generally going to see that democracies will become more democratic and authoritarian governments will become more authoritarian,” said Cilliers. Additionally, the crisis will impact the 8 peacekeeping missions currently operating in countries like South Sudan, Mali, and the Central African Republic. Closed borders and limited funding from the UN could further hamper the already financially constrained operations. 

There is a potential economic upside to this crisis. In a world where large manufacturers look for alternative regions to place their supply chains outside of Asia, Africa could benefit from the supply chain diversification, said Oosthuizen. The pandemic may also serve to elevate the importance of security on the continent, and its connection to health, leading to interventions that enhance the capacity of health systems in Africa. These solutions, however, will require decades long investment and intervention, said Oosthuizen.