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  • Guest Contributor

    Nine Strategies to Stop Short of Nine Billion

    July 16, 2012 By Robert Engelman
    Although most analysts assume that the world’s population will rise from today’s seven billion to nine billion by 2050, it is quite possible that humanity will never reach this population size.

    My chapter in this year’s State of the World 2012: Moving Toward Sustainable Prosperity, “Nine Population Strategies to Stop Short of 9 Billion,” outlines a series of strategies that would prompt significant declines in birth rates. Based purely on the intention of women around the world to have small families or no children at all, these initiatives, policies, and changes in attitude could end population growth before mid-century at fewer than nine billion people.

    Examples from around the world demonstrate effective policies that not only reduce birth rates, but also respect the reproductive aspirations of parents and support an educated and economically active society that promotes the health of women and girls. Most of these reproduction policies are relatively inexpensive to implement, yet in many places they are opposed on the basis of cultural resistance and political infeasibility.

    In creating this list, I sought to eschew the language and approaches of “population control” or the idea that anyone should pressure women and their partner on reproduction. Instead, I hoped to highlight strategies that could put human population on an environmentally sustainable path:
    • Provide universal access to safe and effective contraceptive options for both sexes. With two in five pregnancies reported as mistimed or never wanted, lack of access to good family planning services is among the biggest gaps in assuring that each baby will be wanted and welcomed in advance by its parents.
    • Guarantee education through secondary school for all, especially girls. In every culture surveyed to date, women who have completed at least some secondary school have fewer children on average, and have children later in life, than do women who have less education.
    • Eradicate gender bias from law, economic opportunity, health, and culture. Women who can own, inherit, and manage property; divorce; obtain credit; and participate in civic and political affairs on equal terms with men are more likely to postpone childbearing and to have fewer children compared to women who are deprived of these rights.
    • Offer age-appropriate sexuality education for all students. Data from the United States indicates that exposure to comprehensive programs that detail puberty, intercourse, options of abstinence and birth control, and respecting the sexual rights and decisions of individuals can help prevent unwanted pregnancies and hence reduce birth rates.
    • End all policies that reward parents financially based on the number of children they have. Governments can preserve and even increase tax and other financial benefits aimed at helping parents by linking these not to the number of children they have, but to parenthood status itself.
    • Integrate lessons on population, environment, and development into school curricula at multiple levels. Refraining from advocacy or propaganda, schools should educate students to make well-informed choices about the impacts of their behavior, including childbearing, on the environment.
    • Put prices on environmental costs and impacts. In quantifying the cost of an additional family member by calculating taxes and increased food costs, couples may decide that the cost of having an additional child is too high. Such decisions, freely made by women and couples, can decrease birth rates without any involvement by non-parents in reproduction.
    • Adjust to an aging population instead of boosting childbearing through government incentives and programs. Population aging must be met with the needed societal adjustments, such as increased labor participation, rather than by offering incentives to women to have more children.
    • Convince leaders to commit to stabilizing population through the exercise of human rights and human development. By educating themselves on rights-based population policies, policymakers can ethically and effectively address population-related challenges by empowering women to make their own reproductive choices.
    If most or all of these strategies were put into effect, global population likely would peak and subsequently begin a gradual decline before 2050, thereby ensuring sustainable development of natural resources and global stability into the future. By implementing policies that defend human rights, promote education, and reflect the true economic and environmental costs of childbearing, the world can halt population short of the nine billion that so many analysts expect.

    Kathleen Mogelgaard assisted with research for this piece.

    Robert Engelman is the president of the Worldwatch Institute and contributing author to
    State of the World 2012: Moving Toward Sustainable Prosperity.

    Sources: Bloom et al. (2011), Guttmacher Institute, Kohler et al. (2008), Population Reference Bureau, UN, UNFPA, The Wall Street Journal, Yadava and Yadava (1999).

    Image Credit: Worldwatch Institute,
    State of the World 2012: Moving Toward Sustainable Prosperity.
    Topics: demography, development, economics, education, environment, family planning, gender, global health, Guest Contributor, population, youth
    • rgray222

      It really is not up to mankind to play creator and attempt to limit the number of people that inhabit planet earth. One major issue that virtually every "scientific" journal overlooks…………we are all souls inhabiting a body for a short period of time. When you take a limited view of things than you think we are just humans living one life, when it is over it is over. Our manifest destiny is much greater than just living once on planet earth, to take that viewpoint and have that belief misses the entire point about life, planet earth, the universe and the creator.
      One must understand that we are souls inhabiting a body, not bodies with a soul. When you really get that then you gain a much broader perspective regarding the entire journey we are on!

    • dale

      I cannot see how you got that, from this article.

      It is completely up to mankind to shape it's own destiny by empowering the people with the knowledge and resources to make and enact educated decisions which allow for prosperity and security.

      Gender equality is the key issue, the oppression of human rights among females results in reduced educational attainment often due to early pregnancy and reduced economic potential (50% of the work force out of action rearing children they never wanted because they couldn't access family planning services).

      Women are great providers for children and invest proportionally more into their children then men on average, a sad but true fact especially in the developing areas of the world.

      Whether or not a creator exists is another thing but by no means are we playing "God" by empowering families, women and children we are creating a fair and just world.

    • BB29

      This article proposes some good points. It all boils down to education and empowerment. Mankind, in my opinion, is not trying to “play creator” with these solutions to the problem of environmental sustainability, they are just trying to make a better life for those in the future. Keeping a divine being out of the situation at hand is key. If we were just “souls inhabiting a body” why would we want to stay on this Earth at all? I feel like it is important to make the Earth better for future generations.

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