Cape Town is running dry. But thanks to its sophisticated water management efforts, the city may ride out the crisis. However, other cities that lack these capacities are less likely to survive Day Zero. Especially in developing countries, where urban water services are often provided by informal or illegal actors, running out of water could have dangerous ripple effects for peace and security.

For the first time, the Joint Doctrine of the Indian Armed Forces acknowledges that the “environment has emerged as a critical area of the security paradigm,” and warns that if environmental degradation and related issues increase security risks, the military will need to respond. Released in 2017, the doctrine lists a series of non-traditional security challenges linked to the environment that could influence conflict and war, including “climate change, ecosystem disruption, energy issues, population issues, food-related problems, economic issues of unsustainable modes of production, and civil strife related to environment.” While the military has taken steps to address its impacts on the environment, it can do much more to support the nation’s environmental goals and mitigate environment-related security risks.

Pakistan is South Asia’s fifth most vulnerable country in terms of water availability, and Karachi is the sixth most water-stressed city in the world. Predictions indicate that the country will face absolute water scarcity (insufficient water supply to meet demand) as soon as 2025. While population and demand for water steadily increase, freshwater quantity and quality are decreasing.

The region at the base of the Himalayas faces difficult tradeoffs when allocating freshwater resources for energy production versus agricultural, industrial, and domestic uses. This is one of the most ecologically unstable areas on Earth, and weather patterns are becoming increasingly irregular. On one end of the spectrum, water shortages frequently disrupt energy production, which depends largely on water-intensive coal and hydropower plants. The opposite extreme is also a factor: Dozens of hydropower plants in the Himalayas have been damaged or destroyed by severe floods caused by unusually heavy rainfall in recent years. Construction of new power plants faces increasing resistance from local communities, resulting in social disruptions and instability. In order to ensure both energy security and water security for their countries, governments must look beyond hydropower and coal.

Water, water everywhere but not a drop to drink: All five of the most popular posts last month focused on water scarcity.

The final two parts of our “Choke Point: Tamil Nadu” series, which explores the conflicting demands for water, food, and energy in the South Indian state, took the top spots. In June’s most popular post, Circle of Blue’s Keith Schneider reports on Tamil Nadu’s leadership in India’s transition to solar and wind energy, which use far less of the country’s scarce water resources than coal and nuclear power plants. Schneider also wrote “New Media Helps Galvanize Tamil Nadu to Fight a Toxic Legacy,” which describes an environmental activist’s fight against industrial water contamination.

In 2012, the U.S. National Intelligence Council judged that within the next 10 years, water problems would be a major contributor to instability in “many” countries that are of interest to the United States. South and Southeast Asia, with its many transboundary river basins, large populations, and geopolitical flashpoints, is one among a number of hotspots where such instability could occur.

In a world rapidly churning out unpredictable political shocks, intelligence analysts occasionally need to clear their heads of the daily barrage of newsworthy events and instead work with simple theories that discern the direction and speed of trends and help predict their outcomes. Political demography, the study of population age structures and their relationships to political trends and events, has helped some analysts predict geopolitical changes in a world that, from time to time, appears utterly chaotic.

Our nine-part “Choke Point: Tamil Nadu” series with Circle of Blue has been a must-read on the conflicting demands for water, food, and energy in the South Indian state. In May’s most popular post, S. Gopikrishna Warrier introduces us to Chennai’s tech-savvy social entrepreneurs, who are providing the city’s residents with real-time information on the risk of flooding. (The ninth and final post in the series was published yesterday; catch up on all of them at “Choke Point: Tamil Nadu”).