Future projections of social disturbance due to climate change and ecological pressures provide little optimism for peace in conflict-affected areas over the coming decades. Yet, can we identify current hotspots and future areas of conflict risk? The fourth Ecological Threat Report (ETR), produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace, attempts to do so by taking on the monumental task of evaluating the relationship between ecological threats and peace.

The new report documents a world of growing ecological threats and declining social resilience in the states and territories most vulnerable to a changing climate. And by assessing ecological threats, societal resilience, and levels of peacefulness at the state, territorial, subnational, and city levels, the report also finds a strong correlation between ecological threats and levels of peacefulness.

A window into what we are reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program

A Fifth National Climate Assessment

The US Global Change Research Program launched the fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA)  on Monday, November 13. Published once every five years, the NCA is the United States’ leading report on climate change impacts, risks, and responses.

In 2001, the UN General Assembly declared November 6 the International Day for Preventing the Exploitation of the Environment in War and Armed Conflict. In the 22 years since, both the impact of the exploitation of the environment during war—and the centrality of natural resources in establishing peace—have gained greater global recognition.

Panama Canal’s Water Woes Threaten International Trade Flow

The Panama Canal has operated as a gateway between the Atlantic to the Pacific for more than a century, relying on water to raise and lower the ships that help fuel international trade. But a recent drought has disrupted the normal functioning of the Canal’s locks, cutting into Panama’s revenue and also causing problems for global supply chains.

Nowhere is China’s critical mineral dominance greater than in rare earth supply chains. In 2022, the US government estimated that China controlled “nearly 60 percent of mined production, over 85 percent of processing capacity, and over 90 percent of permanent magnet production.”

The global transition to low-carbon energy is spurring new momentum to produce and secure the mineral inputs necessary for renewable technologies. Yet meeting demand may prove difficult. From electric cars to wind turbines, essential renewable energy technologies often require more minerals than fossil fuel-powered infrastructure. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that efforts to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement could lead to a fourfold increase in mineral demand by 2040.

Water Security Concerns in Gaza

Hamas’ surprise attack on Israel on October 7^th led the Israeli government to cut off water supplies to the Gaza Strip with immediate effect. This has resulted in a clean water crisis that the UN warns is now a matter of life and death.

A window into what we are reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program

Organizing Regional Action on Climate Change, Health, and Environment

As the 2030 deadline for the Sustainable Development Goals looms, the World Health Organization has proposed a new regional framework that aims to build climate-resilient and sustainable health systems, improve the health sector’s access to climate funding, and build an evidence base for policymaking.