Showing posts from category security.
-
New Report Outlines Impact of Climate Change on Law Enforcement
›January 30, 2008 // By Sonia Schmanski“The risks of climate change demand a rethink of approaches to security,” writes Chris Abbott in An Uncertain Future: Law Enforcement, National Security and Climate Change, a report released recently by Oxford Research Group. Climate change’s impact on security concerns has recently moved to the forefront of global dialogue, a development Abbott links to three trends: widespread acceptance of scientific evidence that climate change is real; increased attention to energy security; and growing awareness of nontraditional threats around the world.
Abbott claims that three likely socio-economic impacts of climate change—damaged infrastructure, resource scarcity, and mass displacement of people—could easily lead to civil strife, intercommunal violence, and international instability. For instance, he warns that major problems should be expected where small, affluent populations live next to large, poor ones—a contention U.S. and Mexican leaders, among others, should take note of.
Law enforcement and police should prepare for four key climate-related developments, says Abbott:- Demands for greater border security;
- Changes in rates and types of crimes, due to large-scale migration;
- The need to enforce newly enacted climate-related laws; and
- The need to respond to increasingly frequent natural disasters.
- Difficulties maintaining the soundness of equipment and weaponry and the health of military personnel in a changed climate;
- Loss of defense assets (for instance, military bases on low-lying islands or coasts that will need to be relocated);
- More frequent peacetime deployments, particularly for disaster relief; and
- Instability in strategically important regions, such as the Horn of Africa or the Persian Gulf.
-
Weekly Reading
›This article from the Population Reference Bureau provides an overview of Kenya’s demography—including population growth, HIV/AIDS prevalence, and the country’s youth bulge—in the context of the ongoing ethnic conflict.
“Weather of Mass Destruction? The rise of climate change as the “new” security issue,” by past Wilson Center speaker Oli Brown, examines the risks and opportunities associated with the growing acceptance of climate change as a national and international security issue.
The United States should expand its civilian tools of international power, argued Wilson Center President Lee H. Hamilton in “Wielding our power smartly,” a January 14 editorial in The Indianapolis Star. “America’s crucial role in a complicated world demands that we apply effectively all the tools of U.S. power—public and private, military, economic and political. Our challenge is to cultivate an international system that puts cooperation and engagement at its core,” said Hamilton.
A publication from the U.S. Institute of Peace lays out guidelines for relations between U.S. armed forces and non-governmental humanitarian organizations in conflict zones or potentially hostile areas.President George W. Bush signed an exemption that the U.S. Navy hopes will increase the likelihood that the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals will vacate a federal judge’s recent injunction that the Navy take additional steps to protect marine mammals from the sonar it uses during anti-submarine warfare training.
-
PODCAST – Climate Change and National Security: A Discussion with Joshua Busby, Part 1
›January 14, 2008 // By Sean PeoplesBy destabilizing environments, global climate change can exacerbate existing security challenges and contribute to the creation of new ones. A widely publicized November 2007 report by the Council on Foreign Relations examines the linkages between climate and security and proposes a manageable set of policy options to adapt to and reduce the impacts of an inevitable global change in climate. The report, entitled “Climate Change and National Security,” was written by Joshua Busby, an assistant professor at the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas, Austin. In Part 1 of a two-part podcast series, ECSP Director Geoff Dabelko speaks with Busby about the report and his recommendations for action.
Climate Change and National Security: A Discussion with Joshua Busby, Part 1: Download. -
Trip Report: Garmisch, Germany
›January 4, 2008 // By Geoffrey D. DabelkoVisiting Garmisch, Germany, is not exactly hardship duty. The snowy peaks of the German Alps are visible well before arriving at this Bavarian skiing haven, located 88 kilometers south of Munich. But this is no typical vacation paradise: Garmisch is home to the joint U.S.-German George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies, a leading security and defense educational institution, and its College of International and Security Studies (CISS). For the past 15 years, the Center has brought together security officials from militaries, intelligence services, and ministries for dialogue and education. These collaborative programs help security experts develop and maintain crucial personal connections with their counterparts in other countries.
At the Fall 2007 “Program in Advanced Security Studies” course at CISS, representatives from 34 countries met in the classroom during the day, and, perhaps just as importantly, in the local watering holes at night. The 12-week course, filled with traditional topics such as nuclear proliferation, terrorism, and asymmetrical warfare, ended with a curveball this December: The capstone lectures, meant to provoke students to look beyond traditional security concerns, focused on climate change. On December 3, 2007, three of us—Wolfgang Seiler of the Fraunhofer Institute for Atmospheric Environmental Research in Garmisch, Alexander Carius of Adelphi Research in Berlin, and I—did our best to mix things up.
Seiler led off with an energetic and sweeping presentation on the latest climate science, and proceeded to outline the likely social, economic, and agricultural effects of higher temperatures, intensified storms, changing precipitation patterns, and rising sea levels. He urged Europeans to start addressing this fundamental challenge by recognizing the inadequacy of their own climate change mitigation activities, rather than simply pointing fingers at the United States.
Carius unpacked the findings of a major climate and security study by the German Advisory Council on Global Change. He used the case of Central Asia to walk the more than 160 students through climate change’s expected impacts on regional water supply and their larger social, economic, political, and security implications. For the next few decades, melting glaciers will provide Central Asia with adequate water. But as they continue to recede, this water supply—so critical for agriculture and energy in the region—will diminish greatly. Any government—let alone the relatively new countries of Central Asia, which consistently fall in the World Bank’s lowest quartile of governance rankings—would struggle to prepare for and adapt to this impending water scarcity.
In my remarks, I urged security officials around the world to abandon the stereotype that climate change and other environmental issues are the preserve of tree-hugging environmental activists. In fact, climate change poses real threats that security officials have a responsibility to examine. To address concerns that climate science is too uncertain, I cited the parallel drawn by retired U.S. Army General Gordon Sullivan between making battlefield decisions with incomplete information and tackling climate change without precise predictions.
At the same time, I warned against overselling the links between climate change and violent conflict or terrorism. Climate change is likely to exacerbate conditions that can contribute to intra-state conflict—for instance, competition over declining resources such as arable land and fresh water, or declining state capacity or legitimacy—but it is neither a necessary nor a sufficient cause of conflict. Labeling the Darfur genocide a “climate conflict” is both wrong and counterproductive: It lets the regime in Khartoum off the hook and ignores proximate political and economic motivations for fighting. In the case of Darfur, examining climate change’s role in desertification, the long and deep drought, declining soil moisture levels, and declining agricultural productivity provides a fuller understanding of how conflict between Sudanese pastoralists and agriculturalists has reached this extreme.
I also suggested analyzing whether policy responses to climate change—such as the increased use of biofuels—could create new social conflict. The surge in palm oil cultivation in Indonesia, for example, is arguably accelerating deforestation rates and increasing the chances of conflicts between the owners of palm oil plantations and people who depend on forest resources for their livelihoods.
Small-group discussions ranged widely: European border control officials took great interest in potential increases in South-to-North migration flows from Africa and South Asia. Naval officers focused on the implications of an ice-free Northwest Passage in the Arctic, as well as sea-level rise that may swamp harbors and low-lying island bases.
As with all classes—whether constituted of military officers or not—some students couldn’t get enough of the discussion, while others were less inspired. I left with the impression that, like most military audiences, they did not welcome climate change as a new mission for security institutions. They perhaps recognized the need to study the potential impacts of climate change that may influence their traditional security concerns, even as they remained skeptical that climate change is as critical as some policymakers and researchers claim. -
Melting Arctic Poses Multiple Security Threats, Say Canadian Experts
›December 28, 2007 // By Rachel Weisshaar“We are indeed at a cooperation versus conflict nexus,” said Rob Huebert, associate director of the University of Calgary’s Centre for Military and Strategic Studies, at a December 11 meeting sponsored by the Wilson Center’s Canada Institute. Huebert was joined by fellow Arctic expert Michael Byers, the academic director of the University of British Columbia’s Liu Institute for Global Issues, in a discussion of the potential security threats introduced by a rapidly melting Arctic.
According to Byers, approximately 1.2 million square kilometers of sea ice—an area far larger than the state of California—melted between September 2006 and September 2007. If this trend continues, the Arctic could experience seasonal ice-free periods in 10 or 15 years. The melting ice is opening up previously inaccessible shipping routes, and Byers argued, “It’s not a question of if, but when, the ships come.” Increased shipping activity could attract people trying to smuggle nuclear weapons or materials, illegal drugs, terrorists, or illegal immigrants into North America.
The melting ice is not only opening up shipping routes, but is also uncovering vast oil and gas reserves. The Arctic marine ecosystem is extremely fragile, and an oil spill like the Exxon-Valdez would have “catastrophic environmental consequences,” said Byers. -
Climate Change Threatens Middle East, Warns Report
›December 18, 2007 // By Rachel WeisshaarClimate change could increase instability in the Middle East, says “Climate Change: A New Threat to Middle East Security,” a new report by Friends of the Earth Middle East (FOEME). Written in preparation for this month’s UN Climate Change Conference in Bali, the report focuses on how climate change could harm the region’s already-scarce water supply. Climate change’s likely impacts on water in the Middle East include reduced precipitation and resulting water shortages; more frequent extreme weather events, such as droughts and floods; and rising sea levels.
“Climate change is likely to act as a ‘threat multiplier’—exacerbating water scarcity and tensions over water within and between nations linked by hydrological resources, geography, and shared political boundaries. Poor and vulnerable populations, which exist in significant numbers throughout the region, will likely face the greatest risk. Water shortages and rising sea levels could lead to mass migration,” says the report.
The report identifies several factors that will influence the likelihood of water- and climate-related conflict, including: the existence and sustainability of water agreements between nations; the presence of destabilizing economic and political factors such as unemployment and large-scale migration; the extent of a country’s political and economic development; the ability of a particular country, region, or institution to mitigate and/or adapt to climate change; and the political relationships between countries. -
U.S Defense Planners Must Consider Age Structure, Migration, Urbanization, Says Defense Consultant
›December 13, 2007 // By Miles BrundageThe latest issue of Joint Force Quarterly, a publication by the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University, features an article by Jennifer Dabbs Sciubba entitled “The Defense Implications of Demographic Trends.” Sciubba, a doctoral candidate in political science at the University of Maryland and a consultant to the Office of Policy Planning at the Department of Defense, analyzes the ways in which understanding demographic trends can enhance our understanding of potential national security threats. She contends, “Demography is a useful lens for understanding national security because population is intimately linked to resources, and resources are related to both capabilities and conflict.” Her article peers into the future to hypothesize how three key demographic trends—the north-south divide in age structure; international migration; and urbanization—are likely to impact global security conditions.
Touching on issues that have been discussed at events sponsored by the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program, Sciubba first examines the contrast between the young, growing populations of the Global South and the aging, stagnant populations of the Global North. Ninety-nine percent of the additional three billion people projected to be living on Earth by 2050 will be born in developing countries. Meanwhile, developed countries’ populations are largely stable, and in some cases are declining. Europe’s elderly population will rely on a shrinking pool of working-age citizens to fund their health care and pension systems. In order to continue financing these programs, nations will be forced either to permit massively increased immigration (a possibly that Sciubba discounts because of increasingly prominent xenophobicattitudes in Europe) or to cut back on defense spending. This economic crunch could make European participation in humanitarian or combat operations abroad less likely.
Sciubba explains that “population can be a threat rather than an asset” if a state cannot provide educational and economic opportunities for its younger citizens. The Middle East and North Africa will face grave security risks if economic opportunities do not keep pace with population growth, she argues: “As many observers of international trends note, the sad prospects for these [young] individuals can make them susceptible to radical ideologies and even incite them to full-blown violence.” An examination of Iraq’s male youths helps illustrate this problem. The Iraqi military was the main source of employment for young men before its disbandment in 2003, and the disappearance of that crucial economic prospect makes young men more susceptible to insurgent recruitment.
A second key demographic trend is international migration. The causal link between mass migration and conflict can flow both ways, as Sciubba explains: “The ability of mass migration to change a country’s status quo means that it has the potential to instigate conflict, or at least create divisions. This conflict, in turn, drives migration.” The Middle East illustrates the complex relationships between migration and other demographic issues. According to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, there are approximately two million Iraqi refugees, and about 2,000 Iraqis a day seek refuge in Syria. As a result, there has been a substantial increase in competition for resources between Syrians and Iraqi refugees. Moreover, the virtual end of migration to Israel and the far lower fertility rate among Israeli Jews than Israeli Arabs has set the foundation for an Israel that could be majority-Arab in the future, which would likely fan the flames of conflict there.
Finally, Sciubba discusses urbanization as a key demographic trend that will “likely define the next 30 years.” Population growth will speed up urbanization as working-age young adults seek employment in urban areas. Developing states in the Global South undergoing rapid urbanization face security dangers because of their “proclivity for violence and rebellion [which] can be exacerbated by unmet expectations in overcrowded cities.” Sciubba warns of a potentially catastrophic increase in slums around mega-cities (cities with populations larger than 10 million people, of which there may be 22 by 2015). The squalor in these contemporary urban slums is staggering, she notes: Hygiene and sanitation problems cause 1.6 million deaths annually, which is five times the death toll of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Additionally, rural-urban tensions are likely to be highlighted in coming years. In China, the income of the average urban household is now three times as high as the income of its average rural counterpart, and this income gap is partly responsible for China’s internal unrest.
Sciubba encourages U.S. defense planners to use demographic tools for three main purposes. First, demography can identify security hotspots, such as those outlined above. Second, it can increase awareness of demographic trends in the United States in order to more effectively plan our security policies and strategies. Finally, foreign assistance should take these demographic trends into consideration in order to reduce the risk of related security threats. In only a few pages, Sciubba’s article illuminates several complex demographic trends that will affect future global security. -
Bangladesh’s Stability Threatened by Natural Disasters, Migration, Terrorism
›December 13, 2007 // By Thomas RenardLast month, Cyclone Sidr killed thousands of Bangladeshis and displaced thousands more. Yet natural disasters are not the only threats facing Bangladesh. Dhaka is struggling to control three interrelated challenges: natural disasters, conflict with India, and international terrorism.
- Bangladesh is among the countries most severely affected by natural disasters. UN statistics illustrate the extent of these almost-annual catastrophes. Two wind storms killed 300,000 and 140,000 in 1970 and 1971, while floods affected 38 million in 1974 and 78 million in 1987.
- Repeated environmental disasters have triggered migration within Bangladesh, but also into India, and these migrations have sometimes led to conflict. Rafael Reuveny found that past environmental migrations within Bangladesh and between Bangladesh and India have already triggered high-intensity conflict, mainly along ethnic lines. Generally, conflict arises as a result of competition for land, water, and jobs. But Indians are also concerned about the “Bangladeshization” of the states of Assam and Tripura. According to recent voting records, reports the Christian Science Monitor, 99 percent of the residents living on the Indian side of the India-Bangladesh border are Bangladeshi immigrants. In order to reduce and manage immigration, India has been building a 2,500-mile long, 12-foot high double fence packed with razor wire along its border.
- In his article “Al Qaeda Strikes Back” in Foreign Affairs earlier this year, Bruce Riedel, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, warned that Bangladesh could become an important base for al Qaeda. “The Jihad Movement in Bangladesh was one of the original signatories of bin Laden’s 1998 declaration of war on the West,” he said. In 2006, “as bitter feuding between the two main political parties was increasingly ripping the country apart, there were growing indications that Bangladeshi fundamentalist groups were becoming radicalized. The political meltdown now under way in the capital, Dhaka, is creating the type of fractious environment in which al Qaeda thrives.”
Now, climate change could make the above challenges even worse. “Climate change is a threat multiplier,” Environmental Change and Security Program Director Geoff Dabelko told the Christian Science Monitor. “It’s not that it creates a whole new set of problems, it’s that it will make things that are already a problem worse.” Climate change is likely to make natural disasters more frequent and more powerful; to increase the frequency and extent of environmental migrations; and to increase grievances and the likelihood of state failure, both of which could facilitate terrorism.
- Bangladesh is among the countries most severely affected by natural disasters. UN statistics illustrate the extent of these almost-annual catastrophes. Two wind storms killed 300,000 and 140,000 in 1970 and 1971, while floods affected 38 million in 1974 and 78 million in 1987.
