When the White House released the US Framework for Climate Resilience and Security in September 2024, it was an important opportunity to highlight the significant impacts of climate change on US national security, economic, and strategic interests. The Framework also emphasized the need for tailored approaches in fragile, conflict-affected, and vulnerable (FCV) contexts, particularly in managing and allocating resources, as well as ensuring that climate finance addresses conflict drivers.

Hurricanes Helene and Milton battered the southeastern US in September and October and caused a combined estimate of $300 billion in damages. These storms were only the latest example of a cascade of disasters that is expected to worsen as climate change intensifies. Yet the impacts do not stop at dollars and human lives. Threats to security and stability also will multiply as rising temperatures increase the variability of rainfall patterns and the intensity of storms.

A window into what we’re reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program 

Global Water Stress May Create a Food Crisis (Guardian) 

In its recent report, The Economics of Water, the Global Commission on the Economics of Water examined world hydrological systems and their impact on water availability—and warn of imminent shortcomings in food production. The study asserts that the demand for freshwater will outweigh the supply by 40% in 2030, highlighting a significant shift in previous freshwater requirement estimates. 

Somalia is trapped in a cycle where climate impacts—droughts, floods, and erratic weather patterns—fuel displacement, poverty, and conflict. With agriculture and pastoralism at the core of its economy, the country is particularly vulnerable to these environmental shocks, which create fertile ground for insurgent groups to exploit the resulting instability.

A window into what we’re reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program 

COP29-Host Azerbaijan Accused of Hypocrisy (The Guardian)   

Azerbaijan holds the presidency for the upcoming COP29 in November 2024, and it is using that platform to call for all member states to cease any ongoing conflict they are involved in during the two-week conference. The Central Asian country will also host a “peace day” on November 15, and is putting forth a COP29 Climate and Peace Initiative to support vulnerable countries and advance action in the climate and peace nexus. 

The Pacific Institute recently updated its Water Conflict Chronology—a database of water-conflict events that began to take form in the 1980s. The recent updates include the addition of 300 new entries to the database, highlighting the alarming rise of water-related conflicts in the last few years. Despite this overwhelming evidence of a growing trend in water-related conflicts, global attention toward addressing them remains negligible.   

World Food Program Faces Scrutiny Over Fraud in Sudan (Reuters) 

As Sudan suffers an immense humanitarian crisis due to an ongoing internal conflict between the Army Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the U.N. World Food Program (WFP) has provided crucial aid to people displaced by the conflict. Yet its ability to continue this crucial work is now under threat because of allegations of illicit activities made against its top officials in that country. These developments have drawn the attention of humanitarian practitioners and diplomats—who also have concerns regarding WFP’s mismanagement and how it might have contributed to the failure to deliver enough aid in Sudan.  

The widespread destruction of infrastructure has been a calamitous and common feature across many of the recent wars in the Middle East and North Africa and Ukraine—and urban landscapes such as Aleppo, Raqqa, Kharkiv, Mariupol, and Gaza City have borne the brunt of attacks. Without clean drinking water, electricity, treated sewage, food supplies, and medical services, cities become uninhabitable, disrupting the infrastructure upon which populations depend for basic services, and often leading to their forcible displacement. Civilians are also at risk of malnutrition, starvation, and preventable diseases that spread from dirty water and raw sewage in urban centers.