A window into what we are reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program

Southern Africa’s Drought Offers a Window into the Region’s Climate Future

Southern Africa has been hit by one of its worst droughts in decades, and this calamity highlights the vulnerability of smallholder farmers who rely on rainfed agriculture. For the first time, farmers like Esnart Chogani, who works on a farm just outside Zambia’s capital, Lusaka, were unable to bring in a harvest. The region is normally a major exporter of maize, yet it now has begun importing the grain to meet demand.

The potential threat climate change poses to peace and security is perhaps nowhere more apparent than in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are one way MENA countries can address this compound risk.

A new report by the US Intelligence Community highlights what the world stands to lose if it fails to cooperate on global health. The National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) “Dynamics Shaping Global Health Security In the Next Decade” outlines the dire effects of climate change, changing demographics, and the erosion of trust in institutions on global health security. The NIE on Global Health Security was made publicly available in April 2024, on the heels of the Biden-Harris Administration’s launch of a new Global Health Security Strategy.

Historically, efforts to mitigate climate change have taken precedence over building resilience to its impacts. But from Pakistan to the Amazon, communities on the front lines are already experiencing the devastating effects of a warming world.

In recent weeks, devastating floods have claimed the lives of over 450 people in East Africa, as heavy rains linked to El Niño and changing climate patterns overwhelmed communities and infrastructure. Similar tragedies unfolding in Brazil, Pakistan, and Afghanistan underscore the human cost of being unequipped to protect against the worst impacts of climate change.

The construction boom across Southeast Asia, driven by burgeoning urban development and infrastructure projects, vividly highlights the dual impacts of progress. For instance, the rapid expansion of road networks, ports, and urban centers, while catalyzing economic growth, has also led to significant environmental and social displacement. These projects rely heavily on sand, a fundamental component of concrete and asphalt, extracted in vast quantities from local riverbeds. Annually, this global demand reaches approximately 50 billion tons, positioning sand as the world’s most consumed resource after water. In the Vietnamese Mekong Delta alone, 50 million cubic meters of sand are extracted annually.

The contentious and ambiguous entanglement that military forces have with their natural environment inevitably sparkles public interest and academic research. So how does the existing scholarly work inform our assessment of this convergence?