When catastrophic floods struck civil war-ridden Libya in the late summer of 2023, the catastrophe caused over 10,000 deaths and wreaked immense destruction throughout the nation’s northeastern regions. But because none of the warring factions were in full control of the country and international responders were concerned about being caught in the crossfire, relief efforts were delayed and limited. This confluence of factors amplified human suffering, particularly in Libya’s remote and worst-affected areas.

In the wake of Storm Daniel, which hit Libya in September 2023, ECSP spoke with Wilson Center Global Fellow Peter Schwartzstein about the storm’s tragic fallout and its connection to conflict. As an environmental journalist and consultant, Schwartzstein has written extensively about the climate-conflict nexus and other environmental and geopolitical issues, primarily in the Middle East, North and East Africa.

A window into what we are reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program

Treading Water: Why Were Libya’s Floods So Devastating? 

This week’s devastating disasters in Morocco and Libya underscore the cascading effects of environmental shocks (and in the case of Libya, climate-related shocks), as well as the cross-sectoral response needed to comprehensively address the damage. 

When COP28 begins in the United Arab Emirates in late November of this year, the multifaceted connections between climate and conflict are expected to receive greater attention from participants than they have at previous conferences.  

While there is scant direct causal evidence to suggest that climate change causes conflict, there is a growing body of information that it can influence the risk of conflict by hurting economies, changing broad patterns of human behavior and movement, and straining social cleavages.  

A window into what we are reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program

Deforestation Dynamics in Colombia: The Role of Armed Groups

A 29% drop in deforestation in Colombia in 2022 was labeled as a victory for President Gustavo Petro. Yet there is another reason behind the decrease. Armed groups, such as the Estado Mayor Central (EMC), have imposed logging bans in areas under their control, and levy fines amounting to 251 dollars per hectare.

A window into what we are reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program

Rough Waters: Sri Lanka’s Fishermen Face Climate Challenges and Economic Woes

Close to 2.4 million Sri Lankans are employed in that nation’s fisheries, and the bounty of its seas and freshwater bodies make up close to half of the country’s animal-based protein. But now the livelihood that has sustained these workers for generations faces growing constraints.

Madiha vaguely remembers her family fleeing war-torn Syria. But even a decade later, she still bursts into tears describing their midnight escape across the border to Turkey. She and her family were forced to flee after losing family members in a civil war in which they had no stake.

Little did Madiha—who is now 11 years old—and her family know they would experience another monumental trauma a decade later. This time, it was a 7.8 magnitude earthquake that rocked large swaths of southern Turkey on early February 6, 2023.

The roof they built with their own hands collapsed over their heads, killing several of Madiha’s nieces and siblings. “A large piece of brick fell on my mother’s leg, but she luckily survived,” she said tearfully. 

For thousands of years, natural factors like rainfall and temperature helped determine the fate of economies and societies. For thousands of years, humans also engaged in human trafficking and kept one another as enslaved people. But as human prosperity increased exponentially beginning in the 19^th century, it may have seemed that such concerns were relics of the past.