In 2021, US Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III referred to climate change as an “existential threat”—a term traditionally reserved for nuclear weapons. Yet two years and several strategic plans later, tangible progress to mitigate and prepare for this threat remains elusive, especially on the international scale where the greatest impacts could be realized.

A window into what we are reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program

Peace and Prosperity in the Sahel: Climate Security is Key

Liptako-Gourma is a landlocked region located on the borders of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. It possesses significant mineral, water, and biodiversity resources, and strategically positioned for both economic opportunities and cultural exchange.

The great power competition underway between the United States and China has a ripple effect in each nation’s neighborhood. As the United States prepares for possible conflict seven thousand miles away in the Taiwan Strait, China is expanding its economic influence in Latin America.

 

A window into what we are reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program

Climate Change and Migration: Ensuring Safe Access for Women and Girls

A new report from UN Women found that climate change poses a significant threat gender equality. In particular, changes in weather patterns and extreme events exacerbate vulnerability among women and girls and leads them to seek safety and opportunities through increased migration.

Gunfire erupted at the border of the Afghan Nimroz Province and Iran’s Sistan-Baluchistan Province on May 27, 2023, amid rising tensions over water rights, killing troops on both sides.

Iranian and Afghan government officials have blamed each other for triggering the incident. But whatever the cause, the tensions over water flows between these nations have been simmering for at least a century. Indeed, in 1999, under the first iteration of the Taliban, flows were restricted completely causing damage to the delicate Hamoun Region—a registered UNESCO biosphere site of social and ecological importance.

The increase in global temperatures by over 1 degree Celsius since preindustrial times is already having broad and significant impacts. An ongoing multi-year drought in Eastern Africa, for instance, has been attributed to global warming. Hunger crises, displacement, and exacerbated conflict between pastoralist groups are some of the reported dire consequences.

Climate change’s ripples reach every corner of the globe, but nowhere is their geopolitical impact more pronounced than in China’s relations with the United States. This is especially the case as the undisputed security risks posed to both nations by climate change become intertwined with broader arcs of political, economic, and military competition on both sides.

Links between water and conflict seem to crop up everywhere one looks these days. The Horn of Africa will soon face a sixth consecutive failed rainy season in 2023—its worst drought on record. Not only is this drought a consequence of global climate change, but it has also led to widespread food shortages and local civil conflicts. And over the past year in Ukraine, Russian troops have directly damaged that nation’s already vulnerable water systems, including pipelines, pumping stations, and treatment facilities. These repeated attacks on water infrastructure have not only undermined local livelihoods in Ukraine, but they have also polluted surface waters and threatened biodiversity.