A window into what we’re reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program 

Shell Wins Appeal to Overturn Landmark Emissions Ruling (Al Jazeera)  

Three years ago, a court in the Netherlands ruled in favor of environmentalists and required energy giant Shell to drastically reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The decision would compel the company to cut the absolute carbon emissions it created in 2019 by 45% by the year 2030—including emissions caused by its products. This ruling was the first of its kind by requiring companies to adhere to the Paris Agreement, and it ignited further attempts by climate activists to take legal measures against other fossil fuel companies.   

When the White House released the US Framework for Climate Resilience and Security in September 2024, it was an important opportunity to highlight the significant impacts of climate change on US national security, economic, and strategic interests. The Framework also emphasized the need for tailored approaches in fragile, conflict-affected, and vulnerable (FCV) contexts, particularly in managing and allocating resources, as well as ensuring that climate finance addresses conflict drivers.

Hurricanes Helene and Milton battered the southeastern US in September and October and caused a combined estimate of $300 billion in damages. These storms were only the latest example of a cascade of disasters that is expected to worsen as climate change intensifies. Yet the impacts do not stop at dollars and human lives. Threats to security and stability also will multiply as rising temperatures increase the variability of rainfall patterns and the intensity of storms.

Can Fighting Smog Be a Bridge in India-Pakistan Relations? (Al Jazeera) 

The Swiss group IQAir has compiled and analyzed data from 14 regional monitoring stations and declared Pakistan’s capital Lahore to be the world’s most polluted city. Last Wednesday, for instance, Lahore’s air quality index (AQI) score was 1165, which then  increased in a staggering fashion to 1900 AQI by the following Monday. India’s capital, New Delhi, was a close second for most-polluted city in the same survey, however. This cross-border pollution issue now has led government officials in both countries to reignite stagnant relations to pursue solutions. 

COP16 Sees Action Against Biomass Subsidies (Mongabay) 

In recent years, biofuel has gained tremendous popularity as an alternative to fossil fuels. Yet scientists have now demonstrated how burning forest biomass to produce energy emits more carbon emissions than coal when measured per unit of electricity generated. They also have evidence that forest-based products like wood pellets degrade carbon stores and biodiversity. It is a debate that has gained momentum in the ongoing COP16. 

COP16 Begins in Colombia (Al Jazeera) 

Almost 200 countries are gathering in Colombia for a two-week span (October 21 to November 1) for the UN Convention on Biodiversity to further global conservation goals. At COP15, the meeting culminated with an ambitious global treaty—the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (2022)—that required member states to halt and reverse biodiversity loss. The agreement had four goals that set a “30×30“ agenda to protect 30% of global land, earth, and water ecosystems by 2030. 

A window into what we’re reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program 

Global Water Stress May Create a Food Crisis (Guardian) 

In its recent report, The Economics of Water, the Global Commission on the Economics of Water examined world hydrological systems and their impact on water availability—and warn of imminent shortcomings in food production. The study asserts that the demand for freshwater will outweigh the supply by 40% in 2030, highlighting a significant shift in previous freshwater requirement estimates. 

Escalations in Middle East Spur Oil Security Concerns (Reuters)  

One year on from the brutal reignition of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict on October 7, 2023, the situation in the Middle East has escalated drastically. Hamas’ attack on Israel has been followed by Israeli strikes across the region, which have killed tens of thousands of civilians, displacing millions in Gaza and in Lebanon. Now, tit for tat attacks between Israel and Iran have made Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), worry about oil security in the region.