The Wilson Center is partnering with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research to develop a framework to improve predictive capabilities for security risks posed by weather, water, and climate events. Our “Foresight for Action” series highlights the research used to develop the framework.

Evidence that extreme weather, water, and climate events pose critical security risks to the U.S. homeland, national security, and global stability has been mounting in recent years. From destabilizing droughts in Africa to devastating hurricanes and flooding in the United States, we are clearly seeing an increase in not only the frequency and severity of these events, but also their physical, social, and economic impacts.

The Arctic is changing, and it’s changing fast, even faster than models had predicted. The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report found with strong confidence that the Arctic is warming two to three times faster than the global average.

In his book, Making America Green and Safe:  A History of Sustainable Development and Climate Change, Alan Hecht offers an insider’s account of the years that shaped sustainable development and climate change policy in the United States. The arc of Hecht’s career spans the evolution of the modern environmental movement. Serving for more than 40 years in the U.S. government, he devoted his career to environmental protection and sustainable development. The stories he tells reflect his belief that “history is a critical part of future planning.”

Great power competition in Asia is not only about control of critical waterways in the South China Sea, but also about who controls Asia’s fresh water. The future of Asia’s water—upon which about four billion people depend—lies in China’s hands. Through its presence in Tibet, China controls the headwaters of ten of the eleven major rivers of Asia. So far, China has taken a relatively cooperative approach to sharing water with its neighbors as part of the systematic consolidation of its “soft power” over downstream countries. But climate change and rapid growth are threatening to upset this delicate diplomatic balance. What happens when China’s own thirst outpaces its resources? And how will China’s choices affect U.S. interests in the strategic Asia-Pacific region?

Put simply, “the damn thing melted,” Navy Secretary Richard Spencer explained in recent testimony, referring to Arctic ice melt as the trigger for the new U.S. Navy Arctic Strategy that is to be released this summer. What the Navy planned as a 16-year road map is in need of updates after only four years, in part due to receding polar ice caps, which are “opening new trade routes, exposing new resources, and redrawing continental maps,” but also in part due to the rise of China as an “Arctic stakeholder” and increasing important player in the region.

During the 2016 campaign President Trump stated that clean water would be a top priority of his administration, telling ScienceDebate.org “it may be the most important issue we face as a nation for the next generation.” Now is the time to make good on that commitment.

Sitting at my desk looking at bills to be paid, the first one on the stack is for the water company, emblazoned with the phrase, “Water is Life.” Yes, we all know that. But really, as my teenagers would say, “Duh, Mom. So what?”

Well, here’s the “so what” on this World Water Day 2016.