Scenario planning—a powerful method for communicating and examining uncertainty—is once again in vogue as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the growing interest in this approach, however, its use is still limited, deployed predominately by the intelligence, business, and military communities.

Not since COVID-19 burst onto the scene a few months ago have so many individuals and institutions, outside the business, military, and intelligence communities, woken up to the need for a smart way to characterize and communicate uncertainty. The overwhelming choice for many is scenario planning. Today, scenario planning applies to a wide spectrum of issues, not just international development. It has been used to anticipate changes in higher education, rethink workforce composition, and explore options for individual financial planning.  

Since becoming an independent nation in 1962, Uganda has struggled with high rates of poverty, regional and international conflict, and both endemic and epidemic disease outbreaks, particularly HIV/AIDS. In recent years, though, it has become a key partner of the United States. The U.S. government provides foreign assistance to improve the lives of Ugandans but also to advance stability in the East Africa region generally, with the bulk of these programs administered by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).

Most citizens of democratic nations expect their governments to do their very best to make society more egalitarian, productive, adaptive, and resilient. To do so requires governments to track not just today’s headlines but grapple with long-term underlying trends, like globalization and demographic change. Governments must also make assumptions about the future course of these trends and examine how they might collide or build on one another.

Scenario planning has a long history. The RAND Corporation employed it heavily in planning for potential U.S. responses to nuclear war and 16^th century Spanish Jesuit theologians pointed to the idea as proof of free will. But in many respects this powerful set of methodological tools for managing complexity and uncertainty remains underused, especially beyond the defense, intelligence, and business communities.

Between sessions on the value of creating a physical expression of digital brands (Evernote socks) and Bitcoin, this year’s South by South West (SXSW) in Austin, Texas, featured newcomers from a different background: the U.S. National Intelligence Council.

There is widespread agreement, and untold publications, that argue urbanization is the defining issue of our time. There are more cities, both large and small, and more people living in those cities than anytime in human history.