The US–Israeli war launched against Iran in 2026 may be remembered as the moment fossil-fuel dependence became more than a mere abstraction for the Global South. Brent crude quickly surged past $100 a barrel. Iran militarized the Strait of Hormuz (through which 20 million barrels a day, or a fifth of global oil consumption, normally flow) and retaliated against regional energy infrastructure. Qatar declared force majeure on its liquefied natural gas exports after Iranian drone attacks. Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery shut down.

COP26 came to a close in Glasgow this weekend, with activists and developing country governments disappointed in the global ambition as laid out in the final agreement text. On the one hand, the final document reflects commitments to cut on methane, doubling of monetary compensation for adaptation measures, and the need for cooperation between the United States and China—the two largest carbon emitters—to set out a roadmap to keep warming below 2 degrees Celsius. On the other hand, developing countries criticized rich countries for evading the language of loss and damage—compensation that recognizes that the countries most affected by climate change have contributed the least to planet-warming greenhouse gases.