A window into what we’re reading at the Stimson Center’s Environmental Security Program

As Trump Administration Defunds Ocean Monitoring, the E.U. Fills Gaps (The New York Times)

The Trump Administration’s decision to dismantle the National Science Foundation (NSF)’s decade-long $368 million deep-ocean observation system has led the European Union to bolster its own monitoring of the seas. The now-shuttered NSF program had kept tabs on marine ecosystems and measured the effects of climate change since 2016. NSF spokesman Michael England observed that the move “aligns with NSF’s wider strategy to have a nimbler approach to prioritizing support for evolving scientific priorities and emerging technologies.”

The European Commission responded with an investment of $107 million in ocean observation. More than half of this additional funding will be directed to an existing international ocean observation program sponsored by UNESCO, the World Meteorological Organization, and other international organizations. EU officials say the project will go beyond the obvious benefits to climate policy and inform maritime security and defense policy as well. Maciej Berestecki, a Commission spokesman, described the new monies as “just a first step” within a “long-term process.”

READ | With Knowledge Comes Responsibility: A Conversation with Sylvia Earle on the Ocean

Scaling Climate Adaptation Financing through Water Security (World Economic Forum)

Water-related hazards account for around 90 percent of global extreme weather events. So the direct impact of water on economies across sectors and on the lives and livelihoods of people around the world make these hazards the most visible and measurable impact of climate change. Yet the implementation of climate adaptation measures through the lens of water solutions has lagged due to financing shortfalls. Climate adaptation projects in general are notoriously difficult to finance, since their benefits are spread across stakeholders and sectors and in many cases do not yield predictable cash returns for financers.

For instance, 88% of adaptation financing needs in Southeast Asia go unfunded every year.

And a new Southeast Asia Partnership for Adaptation through Water report analyzes how the region might tap into private capital at-scale to build climate resilience. The authors argue that unlocking financing at-scale requires a number of essential measures: (1) Translating resilience into financial value; (2) aggregating projects into investable platforms; (3) aligning risk-return with different forms of capital; and (4) establishing credible measurements of impact. Other opportunities to promote green advancement also exist, including the development of sustainable digital infrastructure. The approach of the UN Water Conference in December 2026 offers a chance to harness momentum for renewable investments and fit-for-purpose financing for resilience which will generate long-term, cross-sector benefits.

READ | How AGWA is Tracking and Shaping Water’s Crucial Role in Climate Adaptation

UN Warns of Imminent Return of El Niño (The Guardian)

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported on June 2, 2026 that El Niño has an 80 percent chance of forming before September of this year, and a 90% chance of existing before November. The most recent El Niño occurred in the 2023 to 2024 window, and it contributed to 2024 breaking global temperature records. Since the last El Niño was reported to be one of the five strongest such systems on record, news coverage of the possibility of a “super El Nino” this year has been rampant. Yet, until now, the WMO stopped short of endorsing worst-case scenarios, citing a remaining window of uncertainty around projections. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres stated bluntly that” “El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed.”

A new El Niño would arrive just as the UK and the U.S. have made major cuts to the aid budgets which pay for global early warning systems. These actions will diminish preparedness in many ways: alerts of dangerous conditions, early evacuations, and post-disaster aid distribution. The new WMO projections make it almost a certainty. The agency foresees unusually high temperatures over the next three months, with an elevated probability of extreme rain and drought. And while each El Niño cycle is unique, they are typically associated with heavier rain in parts of South America, the Southern U.S., the Horn of Africa, and central Asia. Drier conditions are expected in Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia, and parts of South Asia.

READ | Understanding El Niño’s Broad and Pervasive Impacts is Essential To Mitigation