Just in the last minute, 169 more people were born on planet Earth, and everyday more than a quarter of a million are added to that total. John Milewski, Moderator of Wilson Center NOW, laid out these astonishing facts at the beginning of a Wilson Center NOW conversation on the implications of global population growth with Wilson Center Fellow Jennifer Sciubba on November 14— the eve of the historic day when the number of people on the planet officially surpassed 8 billion. 

“Last century, we started with 1.6 billion people and ended with 6.1 billion, and that’s mainly because we learned how to conquer death for children and babies,” said Sciubba, who is the author of 8 Billion and Counting: How Sex, Death, and Migration Shape Our World. She added that reducing these deaths through our ability to create public health systems and execute that knowledge helped people live longer, which has meant that more people live into their reproductive years and have children.

Even as global population expanded in the last century, Sciubba pointed to rapidly changing demographic patterns within that overall wave. “The last century was one of exponential population growth, and this century is one of differential trends with stark divides in birth, death, and migration,” she said. Take Japan, for instance. Sciubba noted that Japan’s median age is 48 years old, meaning that if you lined up everyone in the country from youngest to oldest, the person in the middle would be 48. “You do the same thing in Nigeria,” she said, “and that person is 18.”

While these trends have consequences for countries, Sciubba observed that demographics are not destiny. Japan’s economy is still one of the strongest in the world despite its aging population. And just because a country has a youthful population does not mean it will be mired with conflict and unable to develop. “Most of the [high fertility countries] are in sub-Saharan Africa, where they’re facing tremendous strains from environmental changes, droughts, and floods,” she said. “The population is dependent on the land, but the land is degrading.”

There are success stories in sub-Saharan African countries, however. Sciubba noted that a recent Wilson Center event showed how Uganda, a demographically young country, has reduced fertility and set the country on a greater path toward economic development through concerted policy efforts by its government, including those focused on family planning and girls’ education.

Indeed, the emergence of places with very low fertility levels, like South Korea and Hong Kong, may be equally concerning. “The fact that [low fertility] is a global phenomenon is something we need to understand much more,” said Sciubba. Part of the equation may be a change in how people think about the future. Usually environmental and economic factors are at play, but perhaps there is also a profound change in social relationships at the household level.

“We see people rejecting marriage, people rejecting building families,” observed Sciubba. It’s a trend that merits more examination and further questions about how families and societies are structured. Why are people choosing to opt out of this well-established system?

The conversation circled back to those 8 billion people now living on planet Earth. Milewski asked: “How can we utilize the 8 billion people we have on the planet today to shape the world we want tomorrow?”

Sciubba replied that for countries that are facing an aging population, one consideration is how best to invest in the human potential of older adults and the entire society. Education of younger and older populations is also essential. “Education is the key around the world for really helping a society to flourish,” she said.

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