The UN Environment Programme has ranked Iraq as the fifth most vulnerable country to climate change. In recent years, it has increasingly witnessed extreme heatwaves with temperatures reaching above 50°C. Iraq’s mean annual temperature also is predicted to increase by two degrees Celsius by 2050. 

The effects of these trends are clear. Drought and associated environmental degradation have eroded rural livelihoods in Iraq by heightening resource competition and posing severe implications for social cohesion. The impacts of climate change also interact with the shortfalls in basic services and lack of economic opportunities, exacerbating several key drivers of insecurity in an already fragile country.

This past year has been particularly dry and dusty. Annual rainfall has decreased amidst prolonged periods of drought, diminishing water supplies and taking a toll on agriculture production. Water flows from the Tigris and Euphrates have diminished due to upriver damming in Turkey and Iran. Rising temperatures and declining rainfall affect soil moisture and make dust storms more frequent. Over the past month, Iraq has been hit by dust storm after dust storm, which has brought life to a grinding halt and sent hundreds of people to the hospital with respiratory illnesses.

This water scarcity aggravates existing tensions, and makes the downstream riparian communities in the historically poorer south more vulnerable. These communities are also a hotspot for anti-government protests. Ironically, the climate is also making this year’s flash floods deadlier. These deluges have devastated homes—and killed at least a dozen in Iraqi Kurdistan.

Extreme weather events are only one aspect of how climate change is making a perilous situation in Iraq worse, compounding existing vulnerabilities. Iraq has already witnessed a breakdown of the social contract with mass protests across the country over inadequate public services, unemployment, corruption, and poor governance. Climate change will further exacerbate these issues, and in turn feed grievances and drive instability. It is imperative that climate adaptation play a part in the Iraqi government’s response to addressing the many grievances of those who live there.

Making a bad situation worse

Providing decent services is central to government’s legitimacy. Yet Iraq’s population faces the challenges posed by broadly inadequate services. For instance, Iraqis derive minimal electricity from the national grid. Those who can afford it rely on private generators in extremely hot summers and often cold winters, while those who cannot do so go without. Last summer, pressure on the grid caused by high temperatures led to constant blackouts in Baghdad and many southern provinces. The extreme temperatures associated with climate change will place added stress on the already failing electricity grid.

At the same time, inefficient hydrocarbon extraction has devastated the country’s environment and the health of its population through toxic emissions. The Iraqi healthcare system is already in crisis, however, and cannot cope with additional pressures. The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed further Iraq’s lack of doctors, medication, and hospital beds, and its increasing health inequalities. And as climate change continues to decrease the availability of water, the lack of access to both safe drinking water and water for agriculture only grows greater.

Iraq is overly reliant on oil revenue, and successive governments have failed to diversify the economy to avoid this issue. Consequently, there also has been little progress in preparing the economy to move away from hydrocarbons, or to address the impacts of fossil fuel industry on the country’s environment and public health. 

The country’s agriculture sector is the second largest after oil, and employs roughly 20 percent of Iraq’s workforce. Desertification has reduced Iraq’s arable lands, while droughts and lack of rainfall have resulted in plummeting production. Crop losses, reduced income, and increases in food prices have combined to threaten the food and livelihood security of those already living on the breadline.

This insecurity contributes to climate-induced urban migration and the higher demand for public services in cities, thus increasing the risk of social unrest and protests. Iraq’s young and steadily growing population also has made unemployment a growing issue, even before a forced move away from hydrocarbons and the impact of climate change on agriculture are fully felt. It hardly is surprising that insecurity also had led to continuous large scale protests met with indiscriminate violence from security actors. The continuing march of climate change will only make these issues worse.

Getting past government inaction

Much needed mitigation efforts or adaptation strategies for climate change resilience have yet to be undertaken by Iraq’s political leaders. But why?

First, corruption and political competition have impeded government action and prevented successive governments from addressing the socio-economic impacts of climate change. As a result, Iraq has failed to make the necessary long-term investment in infrastructure to tackle the impacts of climate change. Iraq has also failed to diversify its rentier economy towards a green and sustainable one that meets the socio-economic demands of its population. And the impacts of climate change also exacerbate several other prevailing issues in Iraq, including poor public health and broad social inequalities.

In a country as vulnerable to climate change as Iraq, what is needed is a holistic approach that addresses climate impacts and pressing and intersecting issues simultaneously. However, the government’s repeated failure to address these issues individually has only increased the likelihood that climate insecurity will compound them and cause further damage. Meanwhile, it has been almost seven months since the October 2021 national elections and a government still has not been formed, further preventing necessary action.

The Iraqi government, with the support of its partners, needs to implement long term policies to improve service provision and expand economic diversification. Yet it is imperative that all initiatives place ameliorating the impacts of climate change at the center, and take full advantage of climate adaptation funding. Failure to change political course will have far reaching consequences for peace and stability, and further drive inequalities in an increasingly inhospitable environment.