One factor frequently underestimated in the global migration discussion is climate change, said James Hollifield, a Wilson Center Global Fellow, in a recent episode of Wilson NOW. Resulting in both internal displacement and international forced migration, climate-induced migration is set to become a complex problem. So far, there are no international agreements protecting those who may be displaced by climate-induced hardships. Hollifield anticipates regions in Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia will be significantly impacted by these dynamics and notes that Central America is already dealing with challenges of climate-induced displacement, in part due to increasing failure of cash-crops like coffee.

But managing displacement in the future doesn’t have to be as problematic as the current “migration crisis” portrayed in politics and the media. One of the goals of Hollifield’s research is to identify ways of managing migration for strategic gains, or achieving a “win-win-win outcome,” for receiving countries, sending countries, and migrants. Underscoring the possibilities of achieving these mutually beneficial outcomes, Hollifield explained some of the ways in which the trend lines don’t match the headlines in contemporary discussions of migration.

For example, despite backlashes against migration in much of Europe, many countries around the world will soon be, or already are, in desperate need of migrants to bolster their economy and to compensate for aging demographics. “Virtually all of the developed countries have gone through a huge demographic transition,” said Hollifield. “Our populations are stagnant. They are shrinking.” Japan, for example, desperately needs younger migrant workers in industries such as eldercare and construction. As a result, the government has implemented policies to bring in half a million “guest workers” from abroad, he said. Similar challenges exist in the United States, and Hollifield predicts labor shortages are on the horizon in China due to the effects of its one-child policy. In contrast to the current migration landscape, demographic pressures and this growing demand for new working-age members of society may spark competition between destination countries vying for migrants in the not-too-distant future.

The shift will come with policy changes, as countries realize how important migration is for sustainable national development, said Hollifield. Rather than building walls, countries will recruit people. “I think this is going to happen sooner than you think,” he said.