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The blog of the Wilson Center's Environmental Change and Security Program
  • Is the Melting Arctic a Security Challenge or Crisis? The View From Russia and Washington

    March 24, 2010 By Geoffrey D. Dabelko

    In his opening remarks at the Security Council of the Russian Federation’s meeting on climate change last week, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev framed climate change as a force for increased competition and “disputes between countries.” Unsurprisingly, he focused on the Arctic region and what he called the “inadmissible” and “unfair” threats to Russia’s access to the region’s resources:

    We must not forget either that climate change can give rise not only to physical change, change in the nature around us, but can also see the emergence of disputes between countries over energy exploration and extraction, the use of marine transport routes, bioresources, and shortages of water and food resources. The countries bordering the Arctic region are already actively engaged in expanding their research, economic, and even military presence in the Arctic. Unfortunately, in this situation, we are seeing attempts to limit Russia’s access to exploring and developing Arctic energy deposits, which is inadmissible from a legal point of view and unfair in terms of our country’s geographical location and very history.

    His reference to “shortages of water and food resources” fits squarely within the increasingly common view of climate change’s potential as a “conflict accelerant” (see, e.g., the U.S. Department of Defense’s 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review) or “threat multiplier” (as in CNA’s National Security and the Threat of Climate Change and statements from representatives of the UK and EU foreign offices).

    But his Arctic comments sounded different than what I’ve been hearing in Washington. The Arctic rightfully gets a lot of attention for alarming rates of physical change, newly accessible resources, and potential new shipping routes. Yet remarks at a recent spate of Arctic climate and security discussions suggest officials in Washington view the geopolitical and trade issues more as “challenges” than “crises.”

    For example, last month at the Stimson Center, and just yesterday at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab, the U.S. Navy’s director of Task Force Climate Change and oceanographer, Rear Admiral David Titley, used “challenge” rather than “crisis” to depict the security situation in the far North. At numerous panels, officials and experts expressed confidence that the Arctic Council and related institutions are forums robust enough to manage current and future disputes.

    Ironically, one of those key institutions is UNCLOS, the Law of the Sea treaty, which has been ratified by 157 countries, but not the United States. U.S. military and civilian officials alike see ratification as a key step for the United States to represent its interests in these critical multilateral settings. Nevertheless, we can anticipate some knee-jerk demagoguery about the treaty ceding U.S. sovereignty to the United Nations, so the Senate is unlikely to take up the issue until after the fall 2010 elections.

    I want to thank friend and colleague Alexander Carius, co-director of Adelphi Research, for calling President Medvedev’s speech to my attention.

    Photo: Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, courtesy Flick user World Economic Forum

    Topics: Arctic, climate change, energy
    • http://www.blogger.com/profile/00957532713455374321 Will Rogers

      Geoff,

      Thanks for this post. It's hopeful to see that this idea of the Arctic as a challenge and not as a crisis (or the next "Wild West") is gaining traction. There was a good piece in The New York Times this morning that reiterates this point. Rear Admiral Titley has done a great job articulating this Arctic "challenge", especially in his leadership with Task Force Climate Change.

      In case you haven't already seen this, Christine crystallizes the U.S. Navy's and U.S. Coast Guard's concerns with the Arctic in her latest CNAS working paper, Promoting the Dialogue: Climate Change and the Maritime Services. Just a quick highlight:

      "Perhaps the more important change to date is the increasing number of people traveling to the Arctic. At a modest but still worrying scale, the Coast Guard has observed ecotourists, sailors and boaters operating vessels in Arctic waters and encountering difficulty due to equipment that is inadequate for operations in that environment."

      Best,
      Will

    • http://www.blogger.com/profile/18337694112852162181 Geoff Dabelko

      Thanks for flagging Christine's excellent brief on this topic Will. I was remiss in note mentioning it in the quick post prompted by the Russian cognitive dissonance. CNAS has certainly been a leading force in helping the Navy think through the implications of climate change for the Navy.

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