• woodrow wilson center
  • ecsp

New Security Beat

Subscribe:
  • rss
  • mail-to
  • Who We Are
  • Topics
    • Population
    • Environment
    • Security
    • Health
    • Development
  • Columns
    • China Environment Forum
    • Choke Point
    • Dot-Mom
    • Friday Podcasts
    • Navigating the Poles
    • Reading Radar
  • Multimedia
    • Water Stories (Podcast Series)
    • Backdraft (Podcast Series)
    • Tracking the Energy Titans (Interactive)
  • Films
    • Water, Conflict, and Peacebuilding (Animated Short)
    • Paving the Way (Ethiopia)
    • Broken Landscape (India)
    • Scaling the Mountain (Nepal)
    • Healthy People, Healthy Environment (Tanzania)
  • Publications
  • Events
  • Contact Us

NewSecurityBeat

The blog of the Wilson Center's Environmental Change and Security Program
  • In Yemen, Water’s Role in the War on Terror

    March 27, 2009 By Will Rogers
    “Sana’a might very well become the first capital in the world to run out of water,” write Gregory D. Johnsen and Christopher Boucek in a February 2009 article in Foreign Policy. With massive population growth, rapidly shrinking freshwater availability, and weak governance, Yemen’s unsustainable water management policies are exacerbating the threat of international terrorism as the state devolves into a sanctuary for al Qaeda jihadists and other transnational criminals.

    Today, Yemen is among the world’s most water-scarce countries. According to the most recent data collected in 2005, Yemen’s freshwater availability has dropped to a mere 186 cubic meters per capita per year – well below the international water poverty line of 1,000 cubic meters per capita per year. Below that, water begins to severely limit “economic development and human health and well-being.”

    And since the latest data collection, according to Johnsen and Boucek, overexploitation of groundwater aquifers to satisfy a burgeoning population has resulted in “dramatically falling water tables—up to several meters per year in some places.”

    To make matters worse, an annual population growth rate of 3.2 percent, driven by a total fertility rate of 6.2 children per woman, means the population will grow from 22.2 million today to 35.2 million by 2050, putting further pressure on an already-scarce resource.

    In Yemen, the “lack of any serious legal oversight, reckless irrigation techniques, and unregulated private exploitation” are clear indicators of poor governance. Nevertheless, the government has begun working with the World Bank to implement an integrated water management program. “Support for the water sector is receiving high priority,” said Nabil Shaiban of Yemen’s Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation, in an interview with IRIN News.

    But despite these efforts, the government’s weakness and the country’s “gun-slinging tribal culture” present serious challenges to water management. According to IRIN News, “tribesmen seize control of water projects nearing completion, intending to use them for irrigating their farms.” This occurs with about “80 percent of projects in rural areas,” Ahmed al-Sufi, an information officer with Yemen’s National Water and Sanitation Foundation, told IRIN News.

    And so the problems of poor water management and weak governance are circular. As water scarcity worsens, the government’s attempts to mitigate it are undermined by its weak control over the state. But without successful policies to mitigate water scarcity, the government’s legitimacy is further weakened.

    With water woes aggravating Yemeni citizens and weakening the government’s authority, al Qaeda and other transnational terror groups are recruiting jihadists and using ungoverned areas as training grounds and safe havens. Forty-five percent of Yemen’s population is under 15 years old—and some claim al Qaeda is now actively recruiting boys as young as 12. With water scarcity worsening economic and human development, Yemen’s youth are particularly susceptible to al Qaeda’s promises of social justice and opportunities for advancement.

    Al Qaeda recently made its capabilities in Yemen clear with a September 18, 2008, attack against the U.S. embassy in Sana’a. Several car bombs and rocket-propelled grenades killed 16 people—the deadliest attack against a U.S. target in Yemen since the bombing of the U.S.S. Cole in 2000. According to The Economist, last March “al Qaeda websites posted a message advising members to head for Yemen.”

    To be clear, water scarcity is not the only issue plaguing the Gulf state. Falling oil prices and mismanaged oil reserves are making Yemen’s chronic economic and human development problems much worse. But assistance from the international community in implementing effective water-management policies would lend credibility to the government and could bolster its ability to prevent al Qaeda from training terrorists within its borders.

    According to the U.S. Army field manual on stability operations, “The greatest threats to our national security will not come from emerging ambitious states but from nations unable or unwilling to meet the basic needs and aspirations of their people.” If Yemen’s government cannot provide even a minimal level of water security for its citizens, it risks becoming a failed state on par with Somalia or Zimbabwe.

    Over the long term, a comprehensive approach to development that balances voluntary family planning with effective natural resource management would help reduce pressure on scarce resources and bring lasting stability to the country, while serving U.S. national security interests in the War on Terror.

    Photo: In Taiz, south of the capital city of Sana’a, children fill up their water jugs outside a mosque. Courtesy of flickr user Osama Al-Eryani.

    Topics: conflict, environmental security, livelihoods, Middle East, population, security, water, Yemen
    • http://www.blogger.com/profile/07317870725815554740 Armystrong

      Yemen’s geographic situation creates the interesting potential for a regional safe haven for terrorists. Yemen and Somalia sit on opposite sides of the Gulf of Aden and yet even with the international implications that this poses there does not seem to be adequate discussion, or action to resolve this problem.

      Both countries face significant security problems that are due to resource scarcity. Yemen itself has 91,000 refugees from Somalia. Although there has been international reactions to piracy and terrorism there hasn’t been enough done to combat the causes.

      There have been international contributions contributions to Yemen but those are in decline as the global financial crisis continues.

      The most interesting aspect of this blog is that fact that it provides a vivid example of how the war on terror is related to environmental issues. It is not just about Yemen as well because the same factors that are damaging Yemen are also damaging many other countries, the closest geographic example being Somalia.

      An point that is raised in this blog that deserves some careful consideration is the role of the U.S. and specifically the U.S. military. Obviously the Navy has already been involved, and affected by both terrorism and piracy in the Gulf of Aden. As an organization the U.S. military and especially the Army as it was referenced in the blog has drastically increased its knowledge base on how to resolve conflicts by addressing environmental issues. It seems that U.S. foreign policy and International commitment to environmental security issues is all too often reactive instead of proactive.
      The U.S. Army can be sent to react to situations, but it may be more effective to be proactive. This terminology may seem dangerous to some based on the U.S. invasion and subsequent occupation of Iraq, but with time and trial a broader humanitarian mission for the U.S. armed forces might give the U.S. more legitimacy in the region.
      Again this blog addressed Yemen singularly but the problems exist in many countries.

      Allowing Al-Qaeda to get their hands on child recruits because those children do not have a government that can adequately supply their basic needs is unacceptable. It is much more difficult and more costly for the U.S. to wait for the threat to express itself more overtly, and when Al-Qaeda gains child recruits those children will become members that can never be dissuaded in their hatred of the west.

      What this blog seems to head towards is the idea that not only are issues like water security in Yemen important in the war on terror, but that they should be the focus. A way forward for the U.S. and the international community should be a humanitarian mission to address environmental security issues before they can manifest themselves into greater conflict.

      The U.S. Army is unlikely to continue to face wars about ideology, i.e. Communism and Islamic Extremism. Instead future wars may well be caused by resource scarcity. The Army has learned a lot about these types of conflicts because of the conflicts that it is currently involved in. After the war in Iraq is concluded the Army should refocus on a proactive humanitarian mission aimed and conflict aversion instead of conflict resolution.

      Aid organizations play an important role in helping devoloping countries but NGOs lack the teeth necessary to provide security for projects in countries like Yemen where the rule of law is failing. There is a challenge to this idea: that there is a fine line between humanitarian involvement and occupation when armed forces are involved; however, the organization of the U.S. armed forces can provide tremendous support without the need for a large footprint. There are several good examples of this from the 2005 Kashmir earthquake response, the 2004 Tsunami in the Indian Ocean, and also the response to Hurricane Katrina.
      Overall the military is the best equipped organization to deal with international relief efforts. While the U.S. footprint should be as small as possible in aiding other countries it should not be invisible. It is time to stop fighting ideologies and instead defeat them by helping other governments provide the environmental security needed to keep their people content.

    • http://www.blogger.com/profile/00957532713455374321 Will Rogers

      I would hesitate to say that, “Future wars may well be caused by resource scarcity.” There is little to no evidence to suggest that natural resource scarcity and other environmental grievances are ever the sole precipitator of violent conflict. Instead, grievances associated with natural resources and the environment tend to exacerbate existing tensions – usually associated with poor governance and the inability of the state to provide basic necessities – that can cause instability and lead to violent conflict. An excellent resource to learn more about the role of natural resources and the environment is the recent United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) report, From Conflict to Peacebuilding: The Role of Natural Resources and the Environment. Also, see UNEP Director Achim Steiner’s remarks at a recent Wilson Center event.

      I do agree that it’s “time to stop fighting ideologies and instead defeat them by helping other governments provide the environmental security needed to keep their people content.” I believe the U.S. military should play a significant role in helping states minimize the impact that natural resource and environmental issues play in exacerbating existing tensions – especially in states like Yemen where our own national security interests are inextricably linked to the conditions and situation on the ground.

      In fact, the U.S. military has a well-established history of engaging foreign militaries around environmental issues to help build capacity around natural resource management and prevent these conditions from causing instability. Two that you mentioned – the 2004 Tsunami relief efforts in Indonesia and 2005 Kashmir earthquake relief – are excellent cases where these mil-mil engagements helped minimize the impact from these natural disasters. These military to military engagements around the environment are great confidence building mechanisms that not only improve governance around natural resources and disaster relief, but also lend legitimacy to the military and the government by safeguarding and improving livelihoods.

      Military to military engagement around water and other environmental issues could help stabilize conditions on the ground in Yemen– or at least prevent current conditions from reaching a tipping point. These engagements could also lend the Yemenis military and government much-needed legitimacy and power in reigning in ungoverned spaces and minimizing the influence that al Qaeda is having on the ground.

      The security situation is likely to dictate what U.S. resources (if any) are dispatched to Yemen. Though with the influence that al Qaeda is having in Yemen (recruiting young recruits and using ungoverned spaces for training), the U.S. military should strongly consider using the environment as an entry point to help shape conditions on the ground, improve livelihoods, thwart al Qaeda’s activities, and bolster the legitimacy of the military and government to bring long-term stability to the state.

    • http://www.blogger.com/profile/07317870725815554740 Armystrong

      Thank you for your well thought out response to my comment. I read your blog and commented on it as part of a project for a geography class at West Point, which also happened to be my last project of my cadet career. There is a blog entry about the class project under the military tab.

      This subject is of a high interest to me as I begin my Army career. Again thank you for your response and for the interesting post.

    • Anonymous

      This article really opens our eyes to some areas of the world that we have neglected. Yes we have our eyes focused on the Middle East but not much is heard about Yemen. This brings to our attention that such situations, as seen in Yemen where resources foster the spread of terrorism, are spread worldwide. As a world community, we should shy away from tactical military intervention and look more towards resources management and education for such nations. The hope is that by rebuilding these nations from the base (their resources) all other things will follow including the eradication of terrorism. Currently the United States has hundreds of thousands of soldiers deployed worldwide but the question is how many of these are for humanitarian purposes? I believe this is an extremely pertinent topic and it will be interesting to see how the US military is used in future deployments.

    • http://www.blogger.com/profile/12871749575352820527 ECSP Staff

      Just this morning, the Stimson Center held an event on Yemen, called "Yemen: Recent Developments and Internal Security" with Dr. Mustafa Alani, Senior Advisor, Gulf Research Center, Dubai, UAE. The invitation notes:
      "The current political and security crises in Yemen have important internal and regional implications. The Government of Yemen has proved unequal to the political task of addressing political challenges from multiple directions. Yemeni security forces have been unable to address the myriad of armed threats to the state. Tribal, sectarian and regional divisions within Yemen have acquired regional and international significance. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is based in Yemen but has regional reach and aspirations. The willingness of Saudi Arabia to engage in military action against Houthi rebel positions in Yemen, and the allegation of Iranian involvement on the side of Houthi rebels, highlight the increasingly regional nature of what was previously seen as an internal conflict."

      Another Yemen expert also recently spoke at a Stimson Center, April Longley Alley, Research Associate at the National Defense University: http://www.stimson.org/events.cfm?ID=729

Join the Conversation

  • RSS
  • subscribe
  • facebook
  • G+
  • twitter
  • iTunes
  • podomatic
  • youtube
Tweets by NewSecurityBeat

Trending Stories

  • unfccclogo1
  • Pop at COP: Population and Family Planning at the UN Climate Negotiations

Featured Media

Backdraft Podcast

play Backdraft
Podcasts

More »

What You're Saying

  • Karachi,,Pakistan,-,Aug,22:,Residents,Are,Facing,Difficulties,Due Why was Pakistan Left out of Biden’s Climate Summit?
    The Anxious Middle: because only the worlds largest polluters were invited to tackle the problem, China, India, the EU...
  • Joyce Makasi holding her baby Charity-1 Ensuring Essential Health Care for Mothers and Newborns During the Pandemic
    Alisha Graves: Well-written and compelling story, Koki. I do wonder why cesarean delivery was recommended for her....
  • India’s Food, Water, Energy Conundrum: Conclusions From a Two-Year Reporting Project [Part 1 of 2] India’s Food, Water, Energy Conundrum: Conclusions From a Two-Year Reporting Project [Part 1 of 2]
    Sachin Shakya: Really informative and detaileda article country,” laments Gupta. In effect, says Ajay Mathur of...

Related Stories

No related stories.

  • woodrow
  • ecsp
  • RSS Feed
  • YouTube
  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • Home
  • Who We Are
  • Publications
  • Events
  • Wilson Center
  • Contact Us
  • Print Friendly Page

© Copyright 2007-2021. Environmental Change and Security Program.

Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. All rights reserved.

Developed by Vico Rock Media

Environmental Change and Security Program

Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center

  • One Woodrow Wilson Plaza
  • 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW
  • Washington, DC 20004-3027

T 202-691-4000