There is little doubt that the oil and gas pipeline politics of the region is part of the backdrop to current events. The Clinton Administration pushed pipelines skirting Russian territory, at a time when Russia was weak and Yeltsin was rather compliant toward the West. Those days are over, and I think it was a mistake to so readily gloss over Russian interests and objections.

But I also think that the policy of NATO enlargement, and de facto “encirclement” of Russia, have played a role. A recent analysis by Stratfor’s George Friedman (“The Russo-Georgian War and the Balance of Power”, August 12) makes for rather interesting reading in this regard.

And let’s not forget that Georgia went on a military purchasing spree in recent years (strongly supported by the United States), which may have made Georgian president Shaakashvili overestimate his punching power. The SIPRI Yearbook reports that Georgian military expenditures grew 15-fold between 2002 and 2007, with most of the increase in the last three years. By some accounts, Shaakashvili may have foolishly counted on U.S. backup for his short-lived adventure.

It’s a sad prospect that the great power politics around energy will likely cause more victims in different parts of the world in coming years. As we head toward peak oil, the remaining resources will become ever more lucrative and strategically important. The key question is whether we can find navigate toward an alternative energy future while avoiding horrendous human costs.