Interesting piece – is it the case that predicted climate change impacts may challenge the distribution rather than quantity thesis? Given the importance of glacial melt for water supply in this region, there should be plenty of water in the short term. But after those glaciers have retreated dramatically in a few decades, will the quantity issue not be a fundamental challenge for Central Asia?

Geoff raises an important, but still, largely overlooked issue – that is, the impact of climate change on water use and allocation in Central Asia. Given that the rivers in Central Asia are fed by glaciers in the mountains of Kyrgyzstan and in Tajikistan, climate change will most likely accelerate snowmelt, which would affect the seasonal flow. This will affect thousands of livelihoods downstream, as it could have an impact upon the current cropping patterns. The extensive focus on interstate conflict, however, is somewhat misguided, as it fails to take into account the potential for social unrest within the downstream states — that is, in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan where the economies (despite having tremendous sources of energy resources) are still highly dependent upon cotton farming, which underlies a system of social and political control. If these countries find themselves forced to restructure their entire economies so as to be able to deal with climate change, they may find themselves facing increased social unrest. Yet, by fundamentally restructuring the agricultural sector, the Central Asian states will be more likely to avoid both distribution and quantity problems.