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PODCAST – New Research on Demography and Conflict: A Discussion with Henrik Urdal
›December 20, 2007 // By Sean PeoplesHenrik Urdal, a senior researcher at the International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO), spent several weeks at the Woodrow Wilson Center this autumn as a visiting fellow. At PRIO, Urdal researches the relationships between demography and armed conflict, focusing particularly on population pressure on natural resources. ECSP Director Geoff Dabelko sat down with Urdal to discuss his current research interests, including the implications of a rapidly urbanizing global populace, sub-national demographic trends in India, and the extraordinary Iranian fertility decline.
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Climate Change Threatens Middle East, Warns Report
›December 18, 2007 // By Rachel WeisshaarClimate change could increase instability in the Middle East, says “Climate Change: A New Threat to Middle East Security,” a new report by Friends of the Earth Middle East (FOEME). Written in preparation for this month’s UN Climate Change Conference in Bali, the report focuses on how climate change could harm the region’s already-scarce water supply. Climate change’s likely impacts on water in the Middle East include reduced precipitation and resulting water shortages; more frequent extreme weather events, such as droughts and floods; and rising sea levels.
“Climate change is likely to act as a ‘threat multiplier’—exacerbating water scarcity and tensions over water within and between nations linked by hydrological resources, geography, and shared political boundaries. Poor and vulnerable populations, which exist in significant numbers throughout the region, will likely face the greatest risk. Water shortages and rising sea levels could lead to mass migration,” says the report.
The report identifies several factors that will influence the likelihood of water- and climate-related conflict, including: the existence and sustainability of water agreements between nations; the presence of destabilizing economic and political factors such as unemployment and large-scale migration; the extent of a country’s political and economic development; the ability of a particular country, region, or institution to mitigate and/or adapt to climate change; and the political relationships between countries. -
From the Director’s Chair
›December 17, 2007 // By Gib ClarkeECSP Director Geoff Dabelko and I recently attended “Population, Health, and Environment: Integrated Development for East Africa,” a conference held in November in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The conference was attended by more than 200 development practitioners from around the world, including many from Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, and Ethiopia.
Throughout the conference, organizers, presenters, and participants all professed the many benefits of integrating population, health, and environment (PHE) initiatives. President Girma Wolde-Giorgis and Ethiopia’s ministers of health, environment, and agriculture and rural development opened the conference by praising the comprehensive basket of services that PHE offers. All that said, perhaps the best evidence that this conference was a success, and that PHE’s integrated approach is both necessary and valued in countries like Ethiopia, came in comments from Glenn Anders, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Ethiopia Mission Director, during the closing ceremony:
As I wrote in my previous post, it is rare that a conference galvanizes such momentum and captures the imagination of so many people from so many countries. It’s good to know that policymakers are listening.
I myself have been in development for over 25 years. I know first-hand the challenges that arise from addressing a development issue as one problem with one cause and one solution. Sometimes it might seem like a more simple approach, but we know that development—and life—is much more multi-faceted and complex. The only way to find a common ground, common solution, and common funding is to recognize the interconnectedness between people and their surrounding environment.
Integrated programs touch more lives, improve program efficiency, and strengthen cross-sectoral collaboration. We see better, measurable results from an integrated approach, and that is something we certainly all want …
Let me share with you how USAID in Ethiopia is utilizing this holistic approach. We support the government of Ethiopia’s community health extension workers, who work on the ground in communities addressing much more than just health. There have been over 18,000 workers deployed to date across the country. All of the community health workers are women and they are empowered to educate their neighbors. The workers are immunizing children and providing family planning services in the community. The program is also improving water and sanitation, introducing clean water and hygiene practices. The community health extension workers in Ethiopia are combining development solutions to address environment, health, population, and gender issues. We applaud Ethiopia’s vision to prioritize this program, and we will continue to support its implementation. -
China’s Environment: A Few Things We Should Know
›December 17, 2007 // By Linden EllisLast week, I attended a conference hosted by the Berkeley China Initiative and the Luce Foundation entitled “China’s Environment: What Do We Know and How Do We Know it?” The two-day conference attracted many of the big names on China’s environment: leading Chinese journalist and environmentalist Ma Jun, Barbara Finamore of the Natural Resources Defense Council, Orville Schell of the University of California, Berkeley, and Jim Yardley of The New York Times, to name a few. While many of the speakers addressed the two questions in the title of the conference, a presentation that stuck in my mind was by the University of Alberta’s Wenrang Jiang, who also asked, “What should we know about China’s environment?” Proposed answers to this question surfaced and resurfaced throughout the conference, but there are a few with which most attendees would likely concur.
First, and most importantly, as Westerners addressing China’s environmental crises, we need to understand that China’s government and people do not need to be told how bad their environment is: They know. What they need are the technology and technical assistance to address these problems. A particularly striking example of where technical tools are needed, raised by speaker Ye Qi of Tsinghua University and again this week at a China Environment Forum meeting in Washington, D.C., is data collection. China needs researchers, academics, and policymakers to guide the development of a strong data collection infrastructure.
Second, we must recognize that China is not a threatening environmental culprit. In fact, many Chinese environmental regulations and policies are more progressive than our own. China’s biggest challenge is developing the mechanisms to enforce these policies and regulations at the local level—another area in which assistance from abroad could be particularly fruitful. Although several laboratories recently declared that China surpassed the United States in total carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions this year, China’s per capita CO2 emissions are still only one-sixth of the United States’ per capita emissions. China and India’s combined CO2 emissions account for only 10 percent of the world’s total; furthermore, according to speaker Gang He of Columbia University, 27 percent of China’s emissions are due to goods it manufactures and then exports. China’s vehicle emissions laws will meet Euro IV standards nationwide by 2010, which 90 percent of U.S.-manufactured sport utility vehicles could not pass today.
Finally, we must bear in mind the level of pollution-related suffering that occurs in China. We cannot simply impose lofty, globally beneficial programs upon a population struggling daily with unmet human needs. A presentation by Shannon May of the University of California, Berkeley, on the failure of an eco-village in China illustrated this point beautifully. May polled villagers to find out why they had not moved into a new eco-village that had been built to improve land and energy efficiency. She discovered something environmentalists had failed to note: With the 60,000 RMB required to move into the eco-village homes, villagers could instead invest in aquaculture or other industries with high returns, build a home to their own specifications, or pay for a wedding for their children. We must make sure that global goals—such as slowing climate change—that require sacrifices from certain populations also produce tangible local benefits, such as reducing toxic air pollutants.
As several attendees mentioned during the conference, China needs more yin from its Western partners—more patience, flexibility, and self reflection, particularly. Many international NGOs that have worked in China for a long time understand this, but larger bilateral programs shaped by political agendas are not always as flexible.
By CEF Program Assistant Linden Ellis. -
PODCAST – Environmental Security and Regional Cooperation in Central America: A Discussion with Alexander Lopez
›December 14, 2007 // By Sean PeoplesDuring a recent trip to Costa Rica, ECSP Director Geoff Dabelko visited Alexander Lopez, director of the School for International Affairs at the National University of Costa Rica. With his extensive field work, Lopez is an expert on the linkages between environment and conflict, as well as the management of transboundary river basins in Latin America. In the following podcast, Lopez discusses the growing awareness of environment and security linkages in Central America and his current work on building regional cooperation and integration of natural resource management. -
U.S Defense Planners Must Consider Age Structure, Migration, Urbanization, Says Defense Consultant
›December 13, 2007 // By Miles BrundageThe latest issue of Joint Force Quarterly, a publication by the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University, features an article by Jennifer Dabbs Sciubba entitled “The Defense Implications of Demographic Trends.” Sciubba, a doctoral candidate in political science at the University of Maryland and a consultant to the Office of Policy Planning at the Department of Defense, analyzes the ways in which understanding demographic trends can enhance our understanding of potential national security threats. She contends, “Demography is a useful lens for understanding national security because population is intimately linked to resources, and resources are related to both capabilities and conflict.” Her article peers into the future to hypothesize how three key demographic trends—the north-south divide in age structure; international migration; and urbanization—are likely to impact global security conditions.
Touching on issues that have been discussed at events sponsored by the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program, Sciubba first examines the contrast between the young, growing populations of the Global South and the aging, stagnant populations of the Global North. Ninety-nine percent of the additional three billion people projected to be living on Earth by 2050 will be born in developing countries. Meanwhile, developed countries’ populations are largely stable, and in some cases are declining. Europe’s elderly population will rely on a shrinking pool of working-age citizens to fund their health care and pension systems. In order to continue financing these programs, nations will be forced either to permit massively increased immigration (a possibly that Sciubba discounts because of increasingly prominent xenophobicattitudes in Europe) or to cut back on defense spending. This economic crunch could make European participation in humanitarian or combat operations abroad less likely.
Sciubba explains that “population can be a threat rather than an asset” if a state cannot provide educational and economic opportunities for its younger citizens. The Middle East and North Africa will face grave security risks if economic opportunities do not keep pace with population growth, she argues: “As many observers of international trends note, the sad prospects for these [young] individuals can make them susceptible to radical ideologies and even incite them to full-blown violence.” An examination of Iraq’s male youths helps illustrate this problem. The Iraqi military was the main source of employment for young men before its disbandment in 2003, and the disappearance of that crucial economic prospect makes young men more susceptible to insurgent recruitment.
A second key demographic trend is international migration. The causal link between mass migration and conflict can flow both ways, as Sciubba explains: “The ability of mass migration to change a country’s status quo means that it has the potential to instigate conflict, or at least create divisions. This conflict, in turn, drives migration.” The Middle East illustrates the complex relationships between migration and other demographic issues. According to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, there are approximately two million Iraqi refugees, and about 2,000 Iraqis a day seek refuge in Syria. As a result, there has been a substantial increase in competition for resources between Syrians and Iraqi refugees. Moreover, the virtual end of migration to Israel and the far lower fertility rate among Israeli Jews than Israeli Arabs has set the foundation for an Israel that could be majority-Arab in the future, which would likely fan the flames of conflict there.
Finally, Sciubba discusses urbanization as a key demographic trend that will “likely define the next 30 years.” Population growth will speed up urbanization as working-age young adults seek employment in urban areas. Developing states in the Global South undergoing rapid urbanization face security dangers because of their “proclivity for violence and rebellion [which] can be exacerbated by unmet expectations in overcrowded cities.” Sciubba warns of a potentially catastrophic increase in slums around mega-cities (cities with populations larger than 10 million people, of which there may be 22 by 2015). The squalor in these contemporary urban slums is staggering, she notes: Hygiene and sanitation problems cause 1.6 million deaths annually, which is five times the death toll of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Additionally, rural-urban tensions are likely to be highlighted in coming years. In China, the income of the average urban household is now three times as high as the income of its average rural counterpart, and this income gap is partly responsible for China’s internal unrest.
Sciubba encourages U.S. defense planners to use demographic tools for three main purposes. First, demography can identify security hotspots, such as those outlined above. Second, it can increase awareness of demographic trends in the United States in order to more effectively plan our security policies and strategies. Finally, foreign assistance should take these demographic trends into consideration in order to reduce the risk of related security threats. In only a few pages, Sciubba’s article illuminates several complex demographic trends that will affect future global security. -
Bangladesh’s Stability Threatened by Natural Disasters, Migration, Terrorism
›December 13, 2007 // By Thomas RenardLast month, Cyclone Sidr killed thousands of Bangladeshis and displaced thousands more. Yet natural disasters are not the only threats facing Bangladesh. Dhaka is struggling to control three interrelated challenges: natural disasters, conflict with India, and international terrorism.
- Bangladesh is among the countries most severely affected by natural disasters. UN statistics illustrate the extent of these almost-annual catastrophes. Two wind storms killed 300,000 and 140,000 in 1970 and 1971, while floods affected 38 million in 1974 and 78 million in 1987.
- Repeated environmental disasters have triggered migration within Bangladesh, but also into India, and these migrations have sometimes led to conflict. Rafael Reuveny found that past environmental migrations within Bangladesh and between Bangladesh and India have already triggered high-intensity conflict, mainly along ethnic lines. Generally, conflict arises as a result of competition for land, water, and jobs. But Indians are also concerned about the “Bangladeshization” of the states of Assam and Tripura. According to recent voting records, reports the Christian Science Monitor, 99 percent of the residents living on the Indian side of the India-Bangladesh border are Bangladeshi immigrants. In order to reduce and manage immigration, India has been building a 2,500-mile long, 12-foot high double fence packed with razor wire along its border.
- In his article “Al Qaeda Strikes Back” in Foreign Affairs earlier this year, Bruce Riedel, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, warned that Bangladesh could become an important base for al Qaeda. “The Jihad Movement in Bangladesh was one of the original signatories of bin Laden’s 1998 declaration of war on the West,” he said. In 2006, “as bitter feuding between the two main political parties was increasingly ripping the country apart, there were growing indications that Bangladeshi fundamentalist groups were becoming radicalized. The political meltdown now under way in the capital, Dhaka, is creating the type of fractious environment in which al Qaeda thrives.”
Now, climate change could make the above challenges even worse. “Climate change is a threat multiplier,” Environmental Change and Security Program Director Geoff Dabelko told the Christian Science Monitor. “It’s not that it creates a whole new set of problems, it’s that it will make things that are already a problem worse.” Climate change is likely to make natural disasters more frequent and more powerful; to increase the frequency and extent of environmental migrations; and to increase grievances and the likelihood of state failure, both of which could facilitate terrorism.
- Bangladesh is among the countries most severely affected by natural disasters. UN statistics illustrate the extent of these almost-annual catastrophes. Two wind storms killed 300,000 and 140,000 in 1970 and 1971, while floods affected 38 million in 1974 and 78 million in 1987.
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Agriculture as Key Post-Conflict Step
›December 12, 2007 // By Geoffrey D. DabelkoMore evidence against treating natural resource management as a luxury item in post-conflict settings comes from the November edition of the New Agriculturalist. Seven short pieces on agriculture after conflict highlight the necessity of utilizing agriculture as part of a post-conflict recovery strategy.
Some of these pieces delve into “rehabilitating coffee in Angola,” livestock health initiatives as confidence-builders in Sudan, and land ownership reform in Guatemala. Articles on Cambodia, Sierra Leone, Afghanistan, and Uganda round out the special focus on agriculture as “an essential part of the rehabilitation process.”
A Publication of the Stimson Center.
