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Rising Food Prices Destabilizing Dozens of Countries
›March 12, 2008 // By Sonia SchmanskiRising prices for staple crops like rice, wheat, and corn—driven by growing demand, poor harvests in some regions, the high price of oil, and the conversion of many crops to biofuel—have spurred recent protests in Mexico, Morocco, Indonesia, Uzbekistan, Yemen, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Mauritania, and Senegal, where people are becoming unable to afford to feed themselves and their families. Last week, the European Union announced its largest food aid package ever, dedicating $243 million to Africa, Asia, and the
Last month, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reported that skyrocketing food prices have caused 36 countries to need external food assistance, and noted that many of these countries have seen their food shortage difficulties exacerbated by extreme weather or violent conflict. Earlier this month, the FAO released a report showing that climate change will likely diminish agricultural output in the Middle East and North Africa. (Visit the FAO’s World Food Situation Portal for more valuable data and reports on food scarcity.)
Some developing countries have found it more economical to import food than produce their own, which has simultaneously decreased global food supply and increased demand. In addition, when developing countries like China and India do achieve greater prosperity, this generally leads to higher consumption of meat and dairy products, which require more grain—and eight times more land—to produce than vegetables and staples.
Experts and leaders agree that boosting agricultural production should be a top international priority. “It is clear,” said John Beddington, the British government’s chief scientific adviser, “that science and research to increase the efficiency of agricultural production per unit of land is critical.” In addition, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon recently suggested that a “Green Revolution” in Africa could help increase efficiency and food security. (Read more on prospects for a Green Revolution in Africa here.)
Speaking last month at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, World Bank President Robert Zoellick called hunger and malnutrition “the forgotten Millennium Development Goal” and argued that “increased food prices and their threat—not only to people but also to political stability—have made it a matter of urgency to draw the attention it needs.”
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Climate Change Will Threaten Global, European Security, Says EU Report
›March 11, 2008 // By Rachel WeisshaarA European Union (EU) report released ahead of a major EU summit on March 13-14 warns that climate change is likely to create or worsen a host of local, regional, and global security challenges. “Climate change is best viewed as a threat multiplier which exacerbates existing trends, tensions and instability,” says the report.
Reiterating conclusions other climate-security reports have drawn, the report argues that shrinking per capita supplies of water, food, energy, and other natural resources could generate political, economic, and social unrest, as well as large-scale migration—much of it from developing countries to European ones.
The report, written by Javier Solana, EU foreign policy chief, and Benita Ferrero-Waldner, European commissioner for external relations, also warns that as the polar ice cap in the Arctic melts and exposes previously unnavigable shipping routes and large unclaimed oil and natural gas reserves, it could trigger new geopolitical rivalries. -
Kenyan Army Cracks Down on Mount Elgon Militia
›March 11, 2008 // By Rachel WeisshaarThe Kenyan army launched a major assault on the Sabaot Land Defence Force (SLDF) yesterday, said officials. More than 500 people have been killed in land clashes involving the SLDF over the past year and a half, including 13 last week.
According to the International Crisis Group, the SLDF, which is based in the Mount Elgon region of western Kenya, is one of the strongest and best-armed non-state groups in Kenya. It comprises members of a Kalenjin sub-clan who believe the government’s Chebyuk Settlement Scheme, which redistributed land in the area, was unjust and should be nullified.
The crackdown—involving hundreds of soldiers and five helicopters—is unusual because Kenyan governments have largely avoided addressing the incendiary issue of land reform. -
Reading Radar– A Weekly Roundup
›March 7, 2008 // By Wilson Center StaffMigration and Climate Change, a new report prepared by Oli Brown for the International Organization for Migration, examines current and future migration due to climate change; explores climate change-related migration’s implications for development; and recommends policy responses.
The rapid recovery of nature tourism in Kenya is central to stabilizing the fragile nation, bolstering its economy, and protecting its biodiversity, said UN Environment Programme Director Achim Steiner.
Two articles from Reuters highlight the intertwined environmental, demographic, and political challenges Yemen faces. “Yemen’s painful struggle to build a modern state may be overwhelmed by rampant population growth, dwindling resources, corruption and internal conflicts,” writes special correspondent Alistair Lyon. One of Yemen’s greatest challenges is water scarcity, which is only becoming more acute as the population booms.
“Many argue that demographic trends can interact with other factors such as poverty, poor governance, competition for natural resources, and environmental degradation to exacerbate tensions and contribute to conflict….Family planning will not end conflict, of course, but slowing the rate of population growth can help stabilize a country in turmoil,” writes ECSP’s Gib Clarke on the RH Reality Check blog.
Papers and presentations from “Population, Health, and Environment: Integrated Development for East Africa,” a November 2007 conference in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, that the Environmental Change and Security Program helped organize, are now available online. -
Land Continues to Trigger Violence in Kenya
›March 5, 2008 // By Liat RacinLand clashes lie at the heart of a recent outbreak of violence at the foot of Mount Elgon in western Kenya that left at least a dozen people—including several children—dead. Although President Mwai Kibaki and opposition leader Raila Odinga reached a power-sharing agreement last week, BBC News reports that post-election strife continues to reignite pre-existing conflicts over land and livelihoods in the country. Regions with longstanding violent feuds over land have been hit worst by the latest bloodshed.
According to Bernard Muli, a local police chief, the Sabaot Land Defence Force (SLDF) is responsible for the latest wave of attacks. The SLDF seeks to avenge alleged discrimination against the Soy clan in the government’s Chebyuk Settlement Scheme, which redistributed land in the area. The SLDF is one of the most powerful and best-armed non-state groups in Kenya, according to the International Crisis Group.
Many analysts have noted the links between historical land grievances in Kenya and the violence that followed the country’s multi-party elections in the 1990s. In a recent blog post on the New Security Beat, Colin Kahl notes how this unresolved issue resurfaced again during the latest elections. -
How Will Population Affect Climate Change?
›March 4, 2008 // By Wilson Center StaffIn “An End to One-Child Families in China?,” a recent post on his blog, Dot Earth, New York Times science reporter Andrew Revkin comments on reports that China is considering ending its one-child policy. But a few of Revkin’s assumptions about population and its relationship to climate change are a tad oversimplified:
1. Revkin writes, “Demographers I consulted today said this [relaxing of the one-child policy] could overturn predictions of an imminent end to global population growth.”
Who’s predicting an imminent end to population growth? The latest UN mid-range projections predict the global population will continue to grow over the next several decades—to 9.2 billion by 2050. Furthermore, even without China abandoning its one-child policy, many already consider the UN mid-range projections optimistically low, since they assume that funding for family planning will continue to increase and the total fertility rate will continue to fall (neither of which is guaranteed). If fertility rates remain the same as they are today, the world population will be 11.9 billion in 2050.
2. Revkin also writes, “Urbanization is likely to help [reduce human impact on the environment] more than hurt.”But according to Brian O’Neill, a scientist who studies the relationships between demographic variables and climate change at the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Institute for the Study of Society and Environment, preliminary projections of future urbanization in China show higher levels of urbanization correlating with an increase, not a decrease, in carbon emissions. (For more on O’Neill’s findings, click here.) 2008 will mark the first time in history more people have lived in urban areas than in rural ones, and the UN Population Division estimates that by 2050, 70 percent of the world’s population will reside in cities. Given that the vast majority of future population growth—including urban population growth—will be in developing countries, energy-efficient and environmentally friendly design in developing country cities will be crucial in the coming decades.
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PODCAST – Modeling the Future: Population and Climate Change
›March 3, 2008 // By Sean PeoplesUncovering the numerous variables that can influence global climate change can be daunting. Brian O’Neill and his colleagues are improving our understanding of some of these factors by modeling how demographic shifts—such as aging or urbanization—could impact climate change. O’Neill is a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Institute for the Study of Society and Environment in Boulder, Colorado, and also leads the Population and Climate Change (PCC) Program at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Laxenburg, Austria. Researching population-environment interactions and the science and policy of global climate change led to O’Neill’s recent work as a lead author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change‘s Fourth Assessment Report. In this podcast, O’Neill describes how shifting demographic patterns could influence a changing climate.
Click below to stream the podcast:
Modeling the Future of Population and Climate Change: Download. -
Reading Radar– A Weekly Roundup
›February 29, 2008 // By Wilson Center StaffNorman Borlaug’s innovative plant breeding techniques—which he used to develop varieties of wheat resistant to stem rust—spawned the Green Revolution and earned him the Nobel Peace Prize in 1970. An article in MIT Technology Review (free registration required) discusses why the Green Revolution did not spread to Africa and which policies and techniques could strengthen African agriculture.
“In Mexico City, mass protests about the cost of tortillas. In West Bengal, disputes over food-rationing. In Senegal, Mauritania, and other parts of Africa, riots over grain prices.” An article from the World Bank explores the causes and consequences of—and solutions to—skyrocketing food prices.
Frequent ECSP contributor Richard Cincotta examines the links between population age structure and democracy in an article in Foreign Policy magazine (subscription required for full article).
“We must address the human consequences of climate change and environmental degradation,” said UN Deputy High Commissioner for Human Rights Kyung-wa Kang at a February 19 conference on climate change and migration. Full transcript here.
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