It is widely recognized that oil states are rarely democratic, and often conflict-prone. As these governments wind down their dependence on this toxic resource as part of broader global efforts to decarbonize, one might imagine that the end of oil will spell a better future for the citizens of oil-producing countries. Sadly, a look at the cases of fragile fossil fuel producing states (FFFPs) suggests that this may not be the case.

“I think we need to approach climate security completely differently,” said Sharon Burke, Founder and President of Ecospherics and Wilson Center Global Fellow, at the recent 2024 Montreal Climate Security Summit. “It’s not just that climate change is an opportunity cost in combat power, or that it’s effecting our bases and operating environment, or that it is an accelerant to instability. It is itself the threat.”

When the White House released the US Framework for Climate Resilience and Security in September 2024, it was an important opportunity to highlight the significant impacts of climate change on US national security, economic, and strategic interests. The Framework also emphasized the need for tailored approaches in fragile, conflict-affected, and vulnerable (FCV) contexts, particularly in managing and allocating resources, as well as ensuring that climate finance addresses conflict drivers.

Hurricanes Helene and Milton battered the southeastern US in September and October and caused a combined estimate of $300 billion in damages. These storms were only the latest example of a cascade of disasters that is expected to worsen as climate change intensifies. Yet the impacts do not stop at dollars and human lives. Threats to security and stability also will multiply as rising temperatures increase the variability of rainfall patterns and the intensity of storms.

A window into what we’re reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program 

COP29-Host Azerbaijan Accused of Hypocrisy (The Guardian)   

Azerbaijan holds the presidency for the upcoming COP29 in November 2024, and it is using that platform to call for all member states to cease any ongoing conflict they are involved in during the two-week conference. The Central Asian country will also host a “peace day” on November 15, and is putting forth a COP29 Climate and Peace Initiative to support vulnerable countries and advance action in the climate and peace nexus. 

Energy is a bridge that has historically fostered the U.S.-India relationship. The reasons are many. Both economies focus on energy security, climate action, economic cooperation, and technological innovation.  

Recent innovations in India offer new challenges and opportunities. The country has rapidly deployed renewable energy (RE) technologies to meet its stated Net Zero targets. This effort has exceeded its promises; 40% of India’s electricity now comes from renewable sources. And the nation’s other ambitious target— installing 450 GW—would triple this existing capacity in less than ten years.

A window into what we are reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program

Brazil Joins the Rare Earth Minerals Race to Curb Chinese Dominance (Reuters) 

Brazil has the world’s third-largest reserves of rare earth minerals. Yet China dominates that market, accounting for 95% of global production. The mining giant is taking steps aims to break this supply chain dominance by creating a robust rare earth industry of its own. The country’s first rare earths mine, Serra Verde, began commercial production in 2024.