Summer is often a time for grim climate milestones, as ever-more intense heatwaves scorch large swathes of the planet. But this year, the bad news arrived earlier than usual when the United States refrained from sending representatives to the UN-sponsored climate talks in Bonn, Germany, for the first time in the talks’ 30-year history. The intercessional talks are in some ways more important ever than the more widely reported on climate COPs because they are where many especially tricky issues are negotiated. The Trump Administration’s unilateral withdrawal from international negotiations is bad news for the climate. But it is even worse news for US national security. Climate diplomacy is a big part of soft power and influence, and Washington is rapidly losing out to Beijing.

The world has plenty of reasons to avoid conflict already. Yet attendees at the recently-concluded COP27 climate conference in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt were presented with another compelling argument: Warfare is bad for global warming. So much so, in fact, that Ukraine’s delegation to the conference organized a special session at the conference of parties on “War Related Emissions,” bringing along a tree trunk bearing scars from Russian shell fragments as tangible evidence.

The summer of 2022 has been a season of climatic extremes across the globe, including record-breaking heatwaves and droughts in both the United States and Europe. But even these unprecedented extreme weather events pale in comparison with China’s heatwave from hell. For more than two months, a huge swath of the world’s most populous nation has been baking under temperatures of up to 113 degrees Fahrenheit. According to state media, this extreme heatwave affects an area of over 500,000 square miles, equivalent to more than twice the size of Texas. In terms of duration, intensity, and area affected, it is almost certainly the most severe heatwave ever recorded anywhere in the world.

Few places have suffered more from the COVID-19 pandemic than southern China, the region where the novel coronavirus was first detected in the city of Wuhan. But it turned out that the pandemic is not the only calamity to befall south China this year. The region has been inundated by heavy rainfall since late May, creating a risk of catastrophic flooding. While southern China typically sees heavy rainfall in the summer months, state media reported that this year’s precipitation has been roughly 20 percent higher than normal. Other outlets report that flooding has affected over 30 million people across dozens of provinces and resulted in over 120 deaths. 

In 1995, World Bank official Ismail Serageldin warned that “the wars of the next century will be fought over water—unless we change our approach to managing this precious and vital resource.” Since then, the world’s water resources have come under ever-greater strain. At the same time, institutional frameworks for managing water resources remain weak throughout most of the globe. Only about a quarter of the world’s international river basins have adequate governance arrangements to prevent and resolve conflicts. Does this mean that we can expect the 21^st century to be wracked by water wars?

It might seem strange to say that the deep sea, the vast expanse of the world’s oceans beyond the continental shelf, is at risk of conflict and competition. After all, no one lives there, and as is often said, more is known about the surface of the moon than most parts of the ocean floor. But the fact is, even the cold, dark reaches of the ocean are no longer immune to resource competition between the world’s major powers.