New Insights Into the Population Growth Factor in Development

From the Wilson Center

New Insights Into the Population Growth Factor in Development

January 4, 2011 By Ramona Godbole

“We have not found any country that has developed or gotten out of poverty while maintaining high birth rates,” said Martha Campbell, president of Venture Strategies for Health and Development. “Family planning is not a cost to a Ministry of Finance – it’s an investment,” said Malcolm Potts of the University of California Berkeley.

Campbell and Potts were joined by panelists Eliya Msiyaphazi Zulu, director and founder of the African Institute for Development Policy, and Jotham Musinguzi, director of the African Region at Partners in Population and Development, for a Wilson Center discussion of the implications of rapid population growth on human and economic development. [Video Below]

Africa’s Key Population Growth Challenges

“Africa’s population of one billion can reach between 1.8 and 2.3 billion by 2050, depending on how well the continent actually does in reducing fertility,” Zulu said. In 2010, Africa accounted for 15 percent of the total world population, but current estimates suggest this will grow to 23 percent by 2050.

“Rapid growth, young age structures, and urbanization are Africa’s main population challenges,” said Zulu. “Addressing these concerns is increasingly seen to be the key to the continent’s development prospects and realization of the Millennium Development Goals.” With 40 to 50 percent of populations in Africa under the age of 15, there is “high momentum for further population growth,” he said.

“Africa has a very high demand for fertility control, and the demand will undoubtedly increase,” said Zulu. “The main challenge, therefore, is not that of demand, but how to ensure those who are in need actually have access to contraception.” In many African regions, current rates of contraception use are as low as seven percent. In some areas, as many as 97 percent of women cannot afford the full cost of contraception, he said.

“It’s not just about reducing fertility,” said Zulu. Improving education and increasing labor force opportunities will not only help populations develop economically, but will also allow African countries to take full advantage of the demographic dividend, he said.

“The international development community should build on Africa’s success stories and support efforts to achieve universal access to family planning, expand public education on reproductive matters, improve the status of women, and improve the situation in urban settings,” Zulu concluded.

Family Planning and the MDGs

“Women are dying; children are dying. They shouldn’t be,” said Musinguzi. “By investing US$1 million in family planning, you can prevent 800 maternal deaths, 11,000 infant deaths, 14,000 deaths in children under five, and 360,000 unwanted pregnancies.”

“Women are clearly saying they have a need for family planning,” Musinguzi said. Presenting statistics from sub-Saharan Africa, he noted that 31 countries have a total fertility rate of more than five. Fourteen million unintended pregnancies occur each year, but only 25 percent of women use family planning. In Uganda, for example, the population has more than doubled in less than 20 years; women on average have more than six children each; and only 18 percent of married women use modern contraception.

“For a country trying to achieve the MDGs…the question of addressing total fertility rate is very important,” said Musinguzi. Reducing unmet need for family planning services can help African countries reduce the costs of achieving several of the Millennium Development Goals, including offering universal primary education; reducing child mortality; improving maternal health; combating HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases; and ensuring environmental sustainability.

Policy Implications

“This is an urgent message – waiting 10 years to get family planning back on the international agenda will be enormously costly,” Potts said. “Of all the medical interventions that exist, contraception is the single most powerful. It is the only one that can have an impact on maternal and infant mortality, on the autonomy of women, on economic progress, on social stability and the rate at which we destroy the environment,” he said.

“Education and family planning are the driving mechanisms of development – they’re synergistic,” said Potts. “One of our needs is to get economists, family planning, and development experts on the same page.”

Sources: Guttmacher Institute, Population Action International, Population Reference Bureau.

Photo Credit: Untitled, courtesy of flickr user stttijn.

Topics: Africa, development, family planning, From the Wilson Center, population, poverty, video
- http://www.blogger.com/profile/03128183522318032094 Steve Salmony
  
  A chance for the population to engage in a conversation about the coming ‘population storm’
  
  “Talk of the Nation Special on Population Jan. 6”
  
  What an opportunity!
  
  Willful and pernicious silence of so many experts as well as broadcasts of ideological idiocy by clever sychophants and duplicitous minions of the wealthy and powerful for the past 60 years make the mere chance for an intellectually honest and morally courageous conversation on “Talk of the Nation” so potentially valuable now here. Opportunities like this one have been occasionally occurring for many years but were routinely missed. A catastrophic failure of nerve by many too many of ‘the brightest and best’ among us who chose, instead of presenting scientific research as was their duty, to foster belief in erroneous preternatural theories; to say whatsoever was politically convenient, economically expedient and socially agreeable; to go along with global gag rules as well as ignore and censor exchanges of sound perspectives regarding human population dynamics and human overpopulation of the Earth. This failure could be one of the great mistakes in human history. I fear our children will come to see it in just that way.
  
  The growth of the human species worldwide could be the proverbial “mother” of human-induced global challenges. If that is so, then failing to acknowledge this predominant challenge will render efforts of humanity to overcome other human-driven, increasingly complex challenges to human wellbeing and environmental health ultimately irrelevant, I suppose.
  
  Please consider that both those who believe human population numbers are exploding and those who believe human numbers are collapsing are correct. Globally, human numbers are undoubtedly increasing, but in some places on the surface of Earth human numbers can easily be seen decreasing. It depends upon your scope of observation. I am perceiving and thinking globally when I report human numbers are skyrocketing. In a similar manner, I can certainly recognize that human numbers in many places (eg, Italy) have been declining. But in order to make that report it is necessary for me to change my scope of observation.
  
  Imagine that a change in one’s scope of observation is like the difference between looking at the forest or the trees. Looking at the forest is like looking at absolute global human population numbers; whereas, looking at the trees is like looking at the population numbers in a place like Italy. Global human numbers can be increasing, while the human population numbers in Italy are decreasing.
  
  So much of the Earth’s environs are being degraded and so many of its natural resources dissipated. So many people are coming. So much time has been wasted. So many opportunities missed. Time is precious….and short. Windows of opportunity are closing, one after another at an accelerating pace.
  
  Let us agree not to let this “Talk of the Nation” opportunity be another missed opportunity like so very many others in my lifetime. We could begin this week by talking to all nations. After all, what are we waiting for?
  For the clock to run out of time, so as to relieve us of human distinctly human responsibilities we can assume and duties only human beings with feet of clay can perform?
  
  Steven Earl Salmony
  AWAREness Campaign on The Human Population, est. 2001
  http://sustainabilityscience.org/content.html?contentid=1176
  http://sustainabilitysoutheast.org/
  http://www.panearth.org/
- http://www.blogger.com/profile/03128183522318032094 Steve Salmony
  
  The human-induced global predicament that looms before the human family today has been allowed to grow rampantly in my lifetime from a challenge that was once manageable into a colossal leviathan of a much more forbidding size. With every passing year 70+ million people are added to the human community and the worldwide challenges resulting from, and driven by, the overconsumption, overproduction and overpopulation activities of the human species become larger, more formidable and much more difficult to address and overcome. The demand characteristics of this unprecedented situation appear to require the active involvement of "all hands on deck". We have to acknowledge what is visible to naked eyes, to stop ignoring that which we need to confront, and immediately begin changing the 'trajectory' of the predominant civilization from what is soon to become patently unsustainable to an alternate path marked by sustainable lifestyles and right-sized human enterprises.
  
  Steven Earl Salmony
  AWAREness Campaign on The Human Population,
  established 2001
  http://sustainabilityscience.org/content.html?contentid=1176
  http://sustainabilitysoutheast.org/
  http://www.panearth.org/
- http://www.blogger.com/profile/03128183522318032094 Steve Salmony
  
  If ever there was a time and place for open and intellectually honest dialogue about a subject, now here could be the occasion for a conversation regarding the eschewed science of human population dynamics, I believe.
- http://www.blogger.com/profile/03128183522318032094 Steve Salmony
  
  What is the moral and ethical response to the global predicament we are discussing?
  
  Do reasonable and compassionate human beings have a "duty to warn" of looming threats to future human wellbeing and environmental health, and then sensibly help one another make preparations or are we to pose as if we are blind, deaf and dumb to the predicament and, thereby, let the least fortunate, most poorly situated and simply unaware among us suffer the consequences, come what may?
- http://www.blogger.com/profile/03128183522318032094 Steve Salmony
  
  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSpUWt_dpAo

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