Seven Billion and Counting

Population Reference Bureau Releases New Projections

Seven Billion and Counting

August 6, 2010 By Russell Sticklor

The Population Reference Bureau recently released its annual World Population Data Sheet, and lo and behold, the world is getting more crowded. By next year, the global total is expected to top seven billion, as we march toward upwards of nine billion by mid-century.

Much of that growth, of course, will be unfolding across Asia — China and India already account for more than 35 percent of the world’s population, and the two countries will continue to drive global demographic change. But the PRB report emphasized that Africa will also contribute significantly to world’s shifting demographics in the coming decades. By 2050, the continent’s population is slated to double, reaching the neighborhood of two billion. In that time span, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Ethiopia are expected to knock Russia and Japan off the list of the world’s top 10 most populous nations.

The Young Continent

Africa’s population growth through 2050 could actually be even greater than PRB predicts, since current projections assume that total fertility rate in sub-Saharan Africa will drop from 5.2 to 2.5 in that time span. The assumption is that as the region’s countries travel farther down the path to economic modernization, access to family planning services will become more widespread, resulting in smaller average family sizes—a trend well-documented in other parts of the developing world.

A slower than expected decrease in total fertility rate (TFR) across sub-Saharan Africa over the next 40 years could render current predictions inaccurate, however. While TFR has dropped significantly over the past 50 years in countries like Ghana (where it is now 4.0), just 17 percent of married women in sub-Saharan African utilize a modern type of family planning. That is one of the reasons Africa as a whole maintains a high average TFR of 4.7 children per woman, and why countries like Niger and Uganda sport some of the highest TFRs in the world (at 7.4 and 6.5, respectively).

According to the 2010 PRB Data Sheet, Africa is also notable for its demographic youth bulge. Of the world’s 10 countries with the highest percentage of their populations aged 15 or younger, nine of them—Niger, Uganda, Burkina Faso, the DRC, Zambia, Malawi, Chad, Somalia, and Tanzania—are on the continent. The question facing these countries is whether their young populations will yield a “demographic dividend” during the coming decades, whereby the large youth bulges translate into a sizeable and productive workforce. Harnessing the economic potential of the younger generation could help accelerate the development process in many of the region’s nations, but it will require significant investment in health and education infrastructure—funding that may prove hard to come by for many cash-strapped governments.

Persistent Divides

Other findings featured in the report involved sanitation and wastewater treatment, where some headway is being made at the global level. The PRB Data Sheet reveals that 43 percent of urban populations in sub-Saharan Africa (and 24 percent of the region’s rural populations) now have access to improved sanitation, while 86 percent of urban populations (and 55 percent of rural populations) have better sanitation services in Latin America and the Caribbean. The figures highlight progress, but reveal the significant divide that persists between urban and rural areas in terms of access to quality sanitation. According to the PRB, some 2.7 billion people—40 percent of the world’s total—still do not enjoy adequate sanitation facilities, and most live in rural areas of the developing world.

Finally, an interesting trend that will impact developed and developing nations alike involves elderly support ratios, or the number of active workforce members between the ages of 15 and 64 available to support a nation’s non-working, 65-and-older population. While rapidly growing countries in the developing world will continue to enjoy high elderly support ratios, a number of countries across the developed world will face a potential financial crisis, as comparatively low support ratios combine with rapidly aging populations to strain available financial resources earmarked for covering pension payments and healthcare infrastructure costs. To make up for the shortfall over the coming decades, the PRB report predicts that some developed nations may be inclined to further throw open the doors to immigration to bolster workforce ranks—a step recommended by Jack Goldstone in ECSP Report 13.

Sources: New York Times, Population Reference Bureau, Population Council, PR Newswire, United Nations Population Division, WHO/UNICEF Jointing Monitoring Programme for Water Supply and Sanitation

Photo Credit: “Famine in Niger, Africa,” courtesy of flickr user liquidslave.

Topics: Africa, aging, demography, DRC, family planning, population, water, youth
- http://www.blogger.com/profile/16510569680594318928 Russell Sticklor
  
  Jennifer Dabbs Sciubba with Rhodes College in Memphis, Tennessee, has posted a thought-provoking response to PRB's recent population predictions, taking issue with demographic projections for sub-Saharan Africa over the next several decades. To read more, click here.
- Anonymous
  
  In these developing areas where population growth is so high, aren't food and other resources already stretched? How can these areas have such drastic population growths if a)they are already low on resources, and b)the increase in population will require more area for them to live?
  
  Sanitation is also a great concern for these regions, especially since these areas already do not have enough proper facilities to provide for the current population levels. I just have a feeling that the population is going to grow too rapidly, and what improvments are made in sanitation will not be enough when needed.
- jeff
  
  Developing rural areas have always seen high fertility rates. We had high birth rates in America when we started out, but that was when children could be used for labor on family farms. It was not uncommon for a family to have five or more kids to help the parents with chores.
  Many of these African countries are in a similar situation now, but the times are changing. As Africa becomes more industrialized, child labor will still be needed, but there may not be enough resources or room to support them. As the world's population grows and the globe's natural resources are exhausted, it will be interesting to see how these developing nations adjust. Will they be content to stay undeveloped, or will they find a way to progress without the resources the rest of the world has used to industrialized
- Aaron Korman
  
  I agree with the above statements. Resources, water is a great example, are already scarce in these areas. How can we expect a way to obtain and distribute much needed items to come about if it cant be done with the current population?
  
  Also one must look into environmental hazards such as desertification. Not only is the population rising, in some cases the areas are shrinking which can definately add synergistic effects not accounted for.
- http://www.blogger.com/profile/16510569680594318928 Russell Sticklor
  
  I agree that resource scarcity is a huge concern as far as population growth is concerned. Jeff, as you mentioned, some developing countries, be they in sub-Saharan Africa or elsewhere, may ultimately be able to get by with fewer resources as they expand in population and develop economically. But in the process, quality of life may suffer. Population growth-induced environmental degradation and sanitation declines are also major concerns from an ecological and public health perspective, as a few of the above posters have noted.
  
  But the sheer number of people in a given country isn't the only factor contributing to pressure on local resources. Lifestyle preference has a lot to do with it too. In some rapidly growing countries, such as China and India, there is an emerging consumer class that is looking to adopt elements of a Western lifestyle, such as private car ownership, or a diet that is more meat-based. In turn, these shifts in dietary and consumer preferences place a greater demand on local resources and the local environment, because of the greater number of inputs needed to manufacture such goods or food products. (Using the shift in dietary preferences as an example, it takes on average more than 10 times more water to produce one kilogram of meat than it does the equivalent amount of rice or grain.)
  
  In the next week or two, keep an eye out for a follow-up piece on population projections for sub-Saharan African that we'll be posting here on New Security Beat. It is written by Paul Cincotta, a demographer at the Stimson Center in Washington DC, and he (like Jennifer Sciubba) contends that population predictions for the region between now and 2050 may be overly optimistic, suggesting that sub-Saharan Africa may end up more crowded than most are currently anticipating.
- James
  
  It is interesting to see an article that does not exclusively focus on India and China when addressing the growing world population. While China and India were mentioned briefly, I think it was good that the majority of the article addressed how population increase will affect places in Africa. With that in mind, I wonder how this heavy increase in population is going to affect security in the future. Africa is already politically unstable and lacking the infrastructure to use the resources it has. The addition of a few billion more people is only going to make the situation worse, and create a lot of problems as countries like vie for Africa’s finite resources.
- Joey Ammon
  
  The world population is rising at an alarming rate, yet there are ways to work around the potential issues that could result from a massive population the world cannot support. Immigration can be used as a tool for people to go where the work and resources are. We are becoming a more global community. The European Union has created a borderless continent where people are able to travel freely from one country to another. This enables ideas, values and traditions to become more accepted by other cultures in the world. The United States, Canada and other countries saw the benefits that come along with immigration, such as: economic prosperity, diversity, and education. It is important to understand the potential problems of a large human population Earth cannot hold. It is ever more important that we use our resources consciously and recycle as much as possible so we have a beautiful world that many people can live in and for future generations to enjoy.
- Andrew Maxwell
  
  I think that one of the biggest issues that the world will have to deal with as the population continues to increase is sanitation. Better sanitation will translate to clean water, which will translate to clean food, and increase the standard of living in over populated regions around the world. It may not be putting families in better homes, but if water bread diseases decrease due to sanitation control, the standard of living in that region will be that much better for the work force.
- http://www.blogger.com/profile/11725882565939618412 AjC
  
  Is sanitation the main issue though? While i will admit that it will be a problem, could it not be said that the more pressing issue will be quantity? The quantity of consumable water is not increasing (if anyhting, because of sanitation it is decreasing) and the population is increasing, so would it not be safe to say that dealing with sanitation will only postpone the inevitable, which is a increased lack of resources due to overcrowding?
- Aaron Korman
  
  Many times through out history we have seen countries limit or close their borders altogether. Many people are already fearing the deterioration of regional characteristics and culture with respect to globalization. I cant help but think the large increase of immigration necessary to make a helpful solution to the population problem would cause friction.
  
  I agree with part of Aj's comment about quantity. Already people are skeptical of conflict over precious resources on Earth, adding a few billion people to the equation would no doubtebly complicate the problem. We are, however, finding new ways to decrease our ecological foot print. Ideas such as desalinization, waste reusal and differing lifestules can have huge impacts on future outcomes. I dont know to what extent these would have to be used to help the population growth problem, or if that is even feasable?
- http://www.blogger.com/profile/16510569680594318928 Russell Sticklor
  
  AjC, it's debatable whether sanitation is the main issue in the population growth debate, but it is a big one. A lot of time, water quality and quantity issues go hand in hand. The less you have, the easier it is for what you've got left to get polluted (groundwater, for example). And even if you're a country with a lot of water, population growth can strain those supplies, and water pollution can quickly leave you with a lot less water than you thought you had, especially if it becomes unfit for drinking or even agricultural use. You can also argue that water sanitation is a big deal because it can really take a toll on a country's public health outlook over time, given the prevalence of water-borne diseases, etc.
  
  At the end of the day, countries need to prioritize supply and quality concerns alongside one another. This is especially true of populous countries (India, China, the U.S.), and/or those that are rapidly increasing in size with limited water resources (Syria, Pakistan).

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