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Climate Change and Conflict
February 23, 2010 By Dan AsinClimate Change and Security in Africa: A Study for the Nordic-African Foreign Ministers Meeting, a collaboration between the International Institute for Sustainable Development and the Institute for Security Studies, examines the spectrum of literature devoted to the security implications of climate change in Africa. In particular, the study focuses on the economic sectors and regions most susceptible to climate change’s threat multiplier effects. It concludes that “climate change presents very real development challenges which, under certain circumstances, may contribute to the emergence and longevity of conflict.”
The International Institute for Sustainable Development’s Rising Temperatures, Rising Tensions: Climate Change and the Risk of Violent Conflict in the Middle East determines that “climate change—by redrawing the maps of water availability, food security, disease prevalence, population distribution and coastal boundaries—may hold serious implications for [the Middle East’s] regional security.” The report identifies the Middle East’s history of conflict as a significant challenge to the region’s ability to cope with climate change’s threats of water scarcity, food insecurity, and volatile migration. Rising Temperatures, Rising Tensions also discusses strategies to advance both adaptation and peacemaking in the region.
Using the coinciding outbreaks of regional drought and inter-communal violence in Kenya in 2009 as an illustration, Climate Change and Conflict: Lessons from Community Conservancies in Northern Kenya Conservation Development examines climate change’s potential to act as a threat multiplier in Northern Kenya. The study, jointly produced by the Saferworld, concludes “that the threat of increased conflict in northern Kenya as a result of climate change is real” and “that resource scarcity is already contributing to heightened insecurity and conflict in these areas.” The study also provides recommendations for responding to climate change, managing natural resources, and preventing conflict and ensuring security.
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