Monthly archive for January 2012. Show all posts
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Migration and Environmental Change, Minority Land Rights and Livelihoods
›Migration and Global Environmental Change: Future Challenges and Opportunities, from the UK Government Office for Science’s Foresight Programme, looks at how environmental change, including climate change, land degradation, and the degradation of coastal and marine ecosystems, over the next 50 years will affect migration trends. The report emphasizes that migration is a complex and multi-causal phenomenon, which makes it difficult to differentiate environmental migrants as a distinct group. Nevertheless, research suggests that global environmental changes will affect the drivers of migration, particularly economic forces, such as rural wages and agricultural productivity.
Though Foresight finds that many will use migration as an adaptation strategy that improves resilience to environmental change, they also point out that some affected individuals may become “trapped” in vulnerable situations, lacking the financial capacity to respond to environmental changes, while others may be able to move but will inadvertently enter more exposed areas, particularly, at risk urban centers. For recommendations, they stress the importance of strategic, long-term urban planning, and recognition within adaptation and development policies that migration can be part of the solution.
A study, released on December 5 by Minority Rights Group International, finds that minority communities in Kenya, Uganda, and South Sudan face significant challenges around access to and control of critical natural resources. The report, Land, Livelihoods, and Identities: Inter-Community Conflicts in East Africa, shows how rapid population growth, climate change, and globalization are increasing competition for land, water, and forest and mineral resources in territories traditionally occupied by minority groups. These pressures can undermine livelihoods and trigger multiple and overlapping conflicts, especially where ownership has not been formalized in law. The study also notes that women are doubly vulnerable as their access to land and resources is frequently mediated through customary law, which depends on their communities retaining control over traditional territory. Although the report makes national-level legal and policy recommendations, the authors note that some of the most effective resource management and conflict resolution strategies adapt traditional cultural practices to the current circumstances of communities. -
Top 10 Posts for 2011
›2011 was a momentous year for environment-population-security connections. Youth demographics came into the media spotlight with popular uprisings across the Middle East, we reached seven billion people on Earth, and there was new awareness about the importance of natural resource management in a more connected-than-ever world. Here are the most popular stories of 2011 on New Security Beat, measured by unique pageviews:
1. Tunisia’s Shot at Democracy: What Demographics and Recent History Tell Us
Tunisia’s “Jasmine Revolution” kicked-off the Arab Spring, but what are the country’s chances at achieving democracy? Demographer Richard Cincotta compares historical data on the relationship between age structure and democratic governments to find out.
2. In Search of a New Security Narrative: The National Conversation Series Launches at the Wilson Center
Captain Wayne Porter (USN) and Colonel Mark Mykleby (USMC) argued the United States needs a new national strategic narrative and presented their vision at the Wilson Center, saying that America needs to move away from a model of containment, deterrence, and control towards a “strategy of sustainability.”
3. Quantifying the Integration of Population, Health, and Environment in Development: When the Whole Is Greater Than the Sum of Its Parts
An article in Environmental Conservation broke new ground by presenting rigorous research that shows working across development sectors produces synergies not obtainable by any one of the disciplines alone.
4. How Did We Arrive at 7 Billion – and Where Do We Go From Here?
Demographer Elizabeth Leahy Madsen explained how world population reached seven billion this year, its significance, and where our demographic path might take us from here.
5. In the Rush for Land, Is it All About the Water?
With staple food prices shooting up and food security projected to worsen in the decades ahead, it is little wonder that countries are looking abroad to secure future resources. But the question arises: Are these “land grabs” really about the food – or, more accurately, are they “water grabs”?
6. Jon Foley: How to Feed Nine Billion and Keep the Planet Too
ECSP reports on Jon Foley’s presentation about the challenges to global food security as well as a strategy for overcoming them at South by Southwest’s inaugural eco conference.
7. Peter Gleick: Population Dynamics Key to Sustainable Water Solutions
Peter Gleick of the Pacific Institute explains in an interview with ECSP what role population dynamics play in his assessment of “peak water.”
8. Guest Contributor Jim Duncan: Redrawing the Map of the World’s International River Basins
Following on his presentation at the Wilson Center, water expert Jim Duncan outlined updates made to the Transboundary Freshwater Spatial Database, including the addition of 13 new basins covering 501,000 km2 and an estimated 13.8 million inhabitants.
9. Ten Billion: UN Updates Population Projections
The UN released an update to its biannual estimates for world population, extending projections for the first time to the end of the century. The results show that growth is likely to continue longer and total numbers will be higher than previously thought.
10. PRB’s Population Data Sheet 2011: The Demographic Divide
ECSP examined the Population Reference Bureau’s latest data sheet which shows an unprecedentedly stark divide between demographic trends in rich and poor countries.
Thanks for reading New Security Beat and also for your many constructive comments. We redesigned the blog in 2011 and plan to continue that modernization effort this year, all with the aim of better reaching you, so we’re grateful for your attention, feedback, and contributions.
Image Credit: Adapted from “Viva the Tunisian Revolution,” courtesy of flickr user freestylee (Michael Thompson). -
Three New Reports Highlight Ongoing Significance of Youth Demographics in Global Trends
›January 2, 2012 // By Elizabeth Leahy MadsenAmidst world population reaching seven billion and last year’s Arab Spring, which in some nations is continuing into this winter, it can be easy to miss emerging pieces of research that tell us something relatively objective about youth and instability. Three new studies give practitioners and policymakers a stronger foundation of evidence to highlight the challenges and opportunities facing the world’s largest generation of young people.
Results of a recent UNICEF staff survey indicate that the people responsible for the UN’s efforts targeting children and youth are seriously concerned about demographic and economic dynamics. Asked to review a list of 20 “global trends,” UNICEF staff rated “growing disparities” and “youth bulge and youth unemployment” as the most significant to children. The results, which the agency will soon publish in a paper on “The Next Generation and Global Trends,” also indicate that staff members feel that UNICEF has a strong capacity to influence the future of these trends.
UNICEF’s recent “Child Outlook” report on global trends discusses the issues highlighted in the survey. The report notes that although many countries are moving toward middle-income status, poverty rates remain stubbornly high, indicating that economic development does not benefit all equally. Income and consumption in such countries tend to be concentrated among the wealthiest households. “While many families will prosper, others are being left behind,” the report explains.
“Tensions and discouragement arising from youth unemployment, combined with higher food prices and fiscal contractions, may have contributed to increased civil unrest, protests, and political instability,” UNICEF asserts. In many developing countries, the number of young people entering the labor market far surpasses the number of available jobs. Although some youth are not working because they are enrolled in secondary or tertiary education, low rates of youth participation in the workforce often are not a matter of choice. Young people, especially those with low levels of education and from poorer families, are often unable to find secure, decent jobs. More than one-quarter of all young people with jobs worldwide live below the poverty line of $1.25 per day.
Economic Pressures on Youth in East Africa
Two other research projects – one published, one still underway – provide additional context to the combination of demographic and economic challenges that face the world’s young people. In the first, part of a recent special U.S. Institute of Peace series on South Sudan, Stephanie Schwartz and Wilson Center fellow Marc Sommers probe the expectations of and obstacles faced by youth in the newly created country.
According to the incipient government’s statistics agency, 72 percent of South Sudan’s population is younger than 30, which places it among the 20 youngest age structures in the world. Only 40 percent of youth ages 15 to 24 are literate, and nearly 80 percent of households depend on agriculture for their income. Based on interviews conducted with urban and rural youth in three areas of South Sudan, the authors find that the pressure of paying rising dowry costs is the most salient issue facing young men, while young women are treated as economic assets with no influence in their own future. The authors’ research suggests that “some young men join armed gangs, at least in part, because they believe it will help them pay dowries.”
Although many young people in South Sudan aspire to the stability of government work, the limited number of jobs and shortage of relevant skills inhibit their aspirations. With an underdeveloped private sector, few opportunities for training, and nepotistic practices in hiring, there is little work for those living in towns and urban areas beyond manual labor and selling goods. The authors recommend that education and job training be expanded, with a focus on equitable access among young people from varied geographic backgrounds.
Across the border in northern Uganda, Chris Blattman, an associate professor of political science at Yale, has been studying the social effects of the government’s youth employment program started in 2007. The program offered grants to small groups of young people for vocational training or to fund the costs of starting a new business. Although a full paper has not yet been published, preliminary findings indicate strong economic benefits of the program which in turn improve social cohesion and community participation while diminishing aggression and “disputes with authorities” among young men. If they bear out, the results may well confirm the oft-repeated policy recommendation that focusing on youth employment is critical to improving national development as well as reducing the likelihood of instability and conflict.
In the year of seven billion, we heard much about the need to invest in young people and the tremendous potential they embody, for demographic dividends as well as overall development. Yet 2011 was also a year of tremendous upheaval, much of which was driven by young people – and their older counterparts – seeking representative and democratic governance. This should serve as a reminder that youth can be a remarkable force for positive change, but in too many places – South Sudan among them – their opportunities, prospects, and contributions are constrained. As the UNICEF survey results reiterate how important this issue is to development programming, the Uganda research may be another important piece of evidence that direct investment in young people reaps tangible results not only for them, but also for society.
Elizabeth Leahy Madsen is a consultant on political demography for the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program and senior technical advisor at Futures Group. She was previously a senior research associate at Population Action International.
Sources: Bill and Melinda Gates Institute for Population and Reproductive Health, Chris Blattman, ILO, Sommers and Schwartz (2011), South Sudan National Bureau of Statistics, UNICEF, World Bank.
Photo Credit: “UNAMID Peacekeeper Speaks with Sudanese Youth,” courtesy of UN Photo/Albert Gonzalez Farran.