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The blog of the Wilson Center's Environmental Change and Security Program
  • “Development in Reverse”: ‘International Studies Quarterly’ Article Links Natural Disasters, Violence

    May 20, 2008 By Sonia Schmanski
    Although numerous research projects have found that environmental change can contribute to conflict “through its impact on social variables such as migration, agricultural and economic decline, and through the weakening of institutions, in particular the state,” very few analysts have systematically addressed the relationship between natural disasters and violent civil conflict, write Philip Nel and Marjolein Rightarts in “Natural Disasters and the Risk of Violent Conflict,” published in the March 2008 issue of International Studies Quarterly (subscription required). Criticizing political scientists’ tendency to diminish the importance of geography and environmental factors in assessing violence, they argue that it has become critically important to “correct this oversight.”

    Recent events indicate that this attention is overdue. On May 2, Cyclone Nargis began its devastating journey through Myanmar. The latest UN estimates put the death toll at somewhere between 70,000 and 100,000. On May 12, a 7.9-magnitude earthquake struck China’s Sichuan Province (incidentally, volcanic eruptions and earthquakes top Nel and Rightarts’ list of the disasters most likely to lead to violence). Official death toll estimates currently stand at 40,000, but are likely to continue to increase. While the Chinese government has been praised both at home and abroad for the speed and scale of its response, Burma’s ruling military junta has been roundly condemned for delaying the arrival of international humanitarian assistance. It remains to be seen whether the junta’s controversial response will lead to popular rebellion among the Burmese people.

    Low- and middle-income countries with high levels of inequality are most susceptible to the violence caused by natural disasters, write Nels and Rightarts. Natural disasters create openings for violent civil conflict by reducing state capacity while simultaneously increasing demands upon the state. The scramble for limited resources in the wake of a natural disaster can easily devolve into widespread violence.

    “Given the dire predictions that natural disasters are set to become more frequent in the near future” due to climate change, Nel and Rightarts conclude, “conflict reduction and management strategies in the twenty-first century simply have to be more attuned to the effects of natural disasters than they have been up to now.”
    Topics: Asia, China, environment, flooding, humanitarian
    • http://www.blogger.com/profile/11666212441523104258 Surya raj

      Human beings have been facing natural disaster for thousands of years yet it is now we are able to mitigate, minimise and even avoid them. This possibility added to the higher level of communication between the people of different part of the world has certainly raised the expectation of the disaster hit people. Many responsible and democratic governments are being successful to use the modern techniques and utilizing the international aid to remove the pain of disaster hit communities. But the recent incidence of cyclone nargis in burma has shown a worst combination of a irresponsible government and prior neglegence of the upcoming disaster. The result is million of people suffering from the lack of basic human necessities and inablity of a government to help their citizens in the time of need.
      This may be the trigger for the violence in the country already in a volatile political situation.
      this is the case of violence ignited by the mismanagement of the conflict. Often the preparedness is undermined to the scale of disaster as in the case of China earthquake overwelming the country with the worlds biggest army. But it is what a government does after a disaster then what it does before in the case of earthquake while in the predictable disaster like cyclone and floodig it is what the government does before and after disaster strike plays role in deciding if violence will prevail or not.
      It os obvious that people in the way to securing their bas9c daily necesseties can be involvd in violence. But it is the duty state and international community to prevent them by providing adequete aid to them in the time of need. Security of the basic need is also necessary now since the climate now is unpredictable and the current level of preparedness is shown to be failed to reach the needy people in time triggering the violence.

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