Yemen’s struggles with terrorism and political instability appeared on American radar screens with the bombing of the Navy destroyer USS Cole in 2000. The small country’s notoriety increased in 2008, following attacks against the U.S. Embassy, and again last Christmas, when a would-be terrorist trained in Yemen attempted to bomb a Northwest Airlines flight. Since then, Yemen has again slipped out of the headlines. But the deeply embedded problems the country faces deserve more sustained attention, as I argue in a new case study of Yemen’s demography.

Youth represent three-quarters of Yemen’s population, which has the youngest age structure outside sub-Saharan Africa. Population Action International has found that countries with age structures like Yemen’s are the most likely to experience internal strife and autocratic governance. Between 1970 and 2007, 80 percent of outbreaks of civil conflict occurred in countries in which 60 percent or more of the population was younger than age 30. During that time, an average of more than 75 percent of these countries had undemocratic governments.

While students of security, stability, and foreign policy may focus on the role of male-dominated terrorist and rebel groups, demographic dynamics in Yemen and the status of women may be a better indicator of broader challenges. A country’s demographic picture is driven primarily by its fertility trends. Women in Yemen average six children each, a rate that would lead the population to double in fewer than 25 years.

Unfortunately, many women in Yemen lack access to the health care that would allow them to determine their own family size. A 2003 survey found that 51 percent of married Yemeni women would like to prevent or delay their next pregnancy but are not using contraception, the highest measured rate of unmet need for family planning in the world.

Yemen has also received the lowest rating in the world in a survey of gender equity, based on women’s professional, political, and educational achievements relative to men. Unfortunately, this inequality is not surprising, given many of the structural barriers in place in Yemeni society. Only 41 percent of women are literate, compared to 77 percent of men, and there is a strong link between girls’ education and fertility later in life. Girls can legally be married at age 15, and pregnancies that occur too soon and too frequently are in part responsible for the country’s maternal mortality ratio, which is 39 times greater than that of the United States.

The key to a country’s future–at the political, economic and the social levels–is the young people who comprise the next generation. Youth in Yemen continue to face barriers to economic opportunity and democratic political engagement. With the size of the labor force growing faster than the number of jobs each year, youth unemployment could reach 40 percent in a decade. The demographic foundation to such economic pressures can combine with political marginalization to create an environment conducive to instability.

Yet at the social level, there is perhaps more promise. Literacy rates among young people 15 to 29 exceeded 90 percent in a recent survey, and youth also display more flexible and equitable attitudes in gender issues. Nearly three-quarters of young people report unconditional approval of contraception, a major determinant in whether Yemen’s high unmet need for family planning, and thus its very young age structure, are likely to change.

Although these issues may be rarely addressed in the political dialogue, it is critical that the efforts of Yemen’s government and its partners to promote peace and stability also incorporate policies that promote the legal rights and economic opportunities for women, together with access to reproductive health services.

Three new case studies from Population Action International on Haiti, Yemen, and Uganda examine the challenges specific to countries with very young age structures and recommend policy solutions.

Elizabeth Leahy Madsen is a senior research associate at Population Action International (PAI). She is the primary author of the 2007 PAI report The Shape of Things to Come: Why Age Structure Matters to a Safer, More Equitable World.

Photo: Yemeni youth. Courtesy Flickr user kebnekaise.

“You can’t just mention [population] in passing…If you’re going to talk about it, [students] will probably be interested in it, and you have to give it a really serious treatment,” cautioned Jennifer Sciubba, Mellon Environmental Fellow and professor at Rhodes College, during a panel discussion on science and policy in the classroom at the 2010 International Studies Association Conference.

Drawing on her experience as a practitioner of population studies, both within the Beltway and in the classroom, Sciubba shared techniques for bridging the gaps that exist between the study of political science and issues of population and environment. “I don’t think there’s that much of a difference between policy makers and students in some ways. They want to know the solutions, and they want you to break it down for them,” she said.

Bringing demography into the classroom should not start with population, recommended Sciubba. Rather, population and environment should be thought of as elements that shape and facilitate understanding of each topic covered in International Relations theory, from issues of conflict, war, and cooperation, to economics and development.

“It’s possible,” she concluded, “to put these things in any course–they’re part of the discipline. If we go back to some of the roots of international relations, this is how people thought of it to begin with and it’s very interesting to get back to that.”

Jennifer Sciubba is the author of a forthcoming book on demography and security, The Future Faces of War: Population and National Security, Praeger International Security Press, 2010

“It is not enough to say that Ethiopia is vulnerable,” says Joshua Busby, an assistant professor at the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin. Also necessary is “which parts of Ethiopia are vulnerable and why.” Busby is part of the Department of Defense-funded Climate Change and African Political Stability (CCAPS) project. Part of the Minerva Research Initiative, CCAPS is a multi-year, multi-institution effort to diagnose and assess the causal connections between climate change and security consequences.

A recent radio interview on the “Demographics of the Arab World” should be a must listen for those in the World Bank, where discussions of the Arab youth bulge are largely off the table.

The interview with Magda Abu-Fadil of the American University of Beirut and Bernard Haykel of Princeton University suggests that scholars of the Arab world are not so timid, as also evidenced by UNDP’s 2009 Arab Human Development Report.

Foreign Policy’s Elizabeth Dickinson recently sat down with UN High Commissioner for Refugees António Guterres for a wide-ranging interview on the global refugee crisis. Yet a strong theme emerges across the continents: The complexity of today’s conflicts belies either easy or quick solutions.

Worldfocus recently featured two pieces on the Arab world’s burgeoning population. “Demographics of the Arab World,” a radio broadcast, brings together Magda Abu-Fadil of the American University in Beirut and Bernard Haykel of Princeton University for a look at the region’s demographic trends. Despite possessing different political systems and being at different levels of economic development, demographic challenges of youth bulges, emigration, and gender gaps are common to countries across the Arab world. “Arab World Experiences Rapid Population Explosion,” a written interview with demographer Patrick Gerland of the United Nations Population Division, tackles similar issues. Topics of discussion include demographic variations between Middle Eastern nations, fertility rates, the consequences of the region’s youth bulge, and best- and worst-case scenarios for the Arab world’s future.

Environmental problems that amplify regional security issues are often multifaceted, especially across national boundaries. Obtaining a comprehensive understanding of the natural resource, energy, and security issues facing a region is not fast or easy.

Fortunately, the Environment and Security Initiative (ENVSEC) has created highly informative, easy-to-understand maps depicting environmental, health, population, and security issues in critical regions.

Published with assistance from the United Nations GRID-Arendal, these maps offer policymakers and the public a snapshot of the complex topography of environmental security hotspots in Central Asia, Eastern Europe, Southeastern Europe, and the Southern Caucasus.

“We journalists tend to deal with the immediate crisis,” Tim Wheeler, an environmental reporter with the Baltimore Sun, told an October gathering of the Society of Environmental Journalists in Madison, Wisconsin. Because the effects of population growth largely won’t be felt until the future, the subject is challenging for journalists who, as a whole, “tend not to look down the road too far.”