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Middle East at the Crossroads:
Syria: Beyond the Euphrates
›By Russell Sticklor // Tuesday, September 28, 2010The Middle East is home to some of the fastest growing, most resource-scarce, and conflict-affected countries in the world. New Security Beat’s “Middle East at the Crossroads” series takes a look at the most challenging population, health, environment, and security issues facing the region.
Across the Middle East, sustained population growth has strained government institutions, natural resources, and the social fabric of entire societies. In Syria, these problems have been particularly acute.
With a total fertility rate of 3.3 children per woman and a population growth rate of 2.45 percent, the country is slated to swell from 22.5 million people to 28.6 million by 2025, and upward to 36.9 million by mid-century, according to the Population Reference Bureau.
“We have a population problem, no question,” acknowledged Syrian economist and former World Bank official Nabil Sukkar in a recent interview with Reuters. “Unless we cope with it, it could be a burden to our development.”
One of the biggest population problems threatening to derail Syria’s continued development is the scarcity of clean fresh water, which has troubling implications for both the security of the country and the region, since Syria shares key transboundary waterways, like the Euphrates River, with neighbors Iraq and Turkey.
As Syria grows more crowded, can Damascus find a way to encourage more efficient management and sustainable use of the country’s water? Or is greater conflict over the resource at home and in the neighborhood inevitable?
From Water Rich to Water Scarce
Historically, Syria has enjoyed plentiful groundwater resources and water from a number of rivers. Even today, Syria typically receives more annual precipitation per capita than seven other Arab nations, placing Syria 13th on a list of 20 released by the UN Development Programme’s 2009 Arab Human Development Report.
However, rapid demographic change, coupled with a series of severe droughts since 2006, has made life considerably more difficult for many Syrians. According to the UN, erratic rainfall in recent years has reduced Syria’s surface water supplies, inducing crop failures and livestock losses, and nudging millions — especially those involved in subsistence farming — into “extreme poverty.” In particular, wheat production has been hit hard, weakening the country’s food security and pushing farmers to migrate to urban centers.
Heading Underground
To cope with the drought, large- and small-scale farmers alike have increased their reliance on groundwater. But in a country where 90 percent of all water withdrawals are used for agriculture, Syria’s efforts are placing a huge strain on its aquifer health. And despite appearances, it’s not just the drought: Syria’s groundwater depletion problems have spanned decades, mirroring its population growth.
According to Syria’s National Agricultural Policy Center (NAPC), the number of wells tapping aquifers nationwide is thought to have swelled from just over 135,000 in 1999 to more than 213,000 in 2007. The rampant pumping — much of it illegal — has caused groundwater levels to plummet in many parts of the country, and raised significant concerns about the water quality in remaining aquifer stocks.
And demand continues to rise: NAPC reports that the amount of land irrigated by groundwater soared from roughly 650,000 hectares in 1985 to 1.4 million hectares in 2005, a trend that has only accelerated in the face of recent rainfall shortages.
Drawing down aquifers is worrisome as long as withdrawals outpace natural recharge. Some, known as “fossil aquifers,” lack natural inputs or outlets and will never refill — once drained, these aquifers are gone for good.
Avoiding the Hard Choices
For decades, Damascus did little to acknowledge or address the country’s growing problem of aquifer overuse. Government officials shied away from implementing robust policies that would have metered, taxed, or even simply monitored groundwater usage. In lieu of encouraging water-use conservation in the agricultural sector, Syria’s water managers instead focused on manipulating supply, by constructing dams or proposing plans to shuttle water between river basins. In doing so, they largely avoided imposing water austerity measures that almost certainly would have proven politically unpopular.
Belatedly, some efforts to mitigate Syria’s water issues are now underway. The country’s 2005 water-use code called for the licensing of all the country’s wells, threatening fines or prison terms for those caught illegally pumping groundwater. In 2008, Damascus took its campaign one step further, eliminating diesel subsidies that once facilitated groundwater removal.
But while these efforts have had some positive effect on groundwater-use trends nationwide, they could undermine stability in the short term. Illegal wells facilitate crop growth in many areas and help employ thousands in the agricultural sector, so shutting them down could heighten regional unemployment, and further weaken the country’s food security.
There Goes the Neighborhood?
With the future of Syria’s groundwater uncertain, there has been speculation that these internal water tensions might increase competition with neighboring countries for transboundary surface waters. The two countries most inextricably linked to Syria’s water crunch are Iraq and Turkey, who share the Euphrates with Syria.
Syria pulls roughly 85 percent of its water from the Euphrates, making the river a vital strategic resource. Yet water availability has historically been subject to the whims of Turkey, which controls the Euphrates’ headwaters.
Meanwhile, Iraq, which lies downstream of Syria, is also heavily dependant on the river. Understandably, as all three countries have seen their populations grow in recent decades, so too have tensions over controlling and sharing the Euphrates’ flow.
Despite Turkey’s long-standing resistance to international water-sharing pacts and penchant for large-scale hydroelectric projects, a new round of water diplomacy may help ease future tensions over the river. A recently created joint institute — backed by Iraq, Syria, and Turkey — is designed to provide a forum for the three countries to share data and policy ideas. Academics and water experts from the three countries will collaborate on efficient management, share best practices, and create a comprehensive map of the region’s water supplies.
The institute may be only a small step, but its emphasis on transparency is undoubtedly a move in the right direction. For Syria — sandwiched between two much larger countries — better communication with its neighbors is not only smart, but necessary to avoid conflict. But that won’t solve the country’s serious water scarcity problem. Leaders in Damascus should also continue to encourage conservation and more efficient use of water to stretch supplies to meet the needs of their growing population.
Sources: BBC, Global Arab Network, IRIN, Mideastnews.com, National Agricultural Policy Centre (Syria), Population Reference Bureau, Reuters, Syria Ministry of Agriculture, Syria Today
Photo Credit: “Euphrates and the Dig House Dura Europos,” courtesy of flickr user Verity Cridland. MORE -
Middle East at the Crossroads:
Iraq: Steve Lonergan on the Southern Marshes
›Environmental Disaster or Impetus for Cooperation?
By Schuyler Null // Tuesday, September 21, 2010The Middle East is home to some of the fastest growing, most resource-scarce, and conflict-affected countries in the world. New Security Beat’s “Middle East at the Crossroads” series takes a look at the most challenging population, health, environment, and security issues facing the region.
Iraq’s Southern Marshes, once the Middle East’s largest and most ecologically diverse wetlands, have survived the Iran-Iraq war, systematic drainage by Saddam Hussein, American invasion, and record-breaking drought. Today, however, the prospects for survival are dimming, as water consumption across the region continues to increase and security remains unsettled. Despite these challenges, the marshes’ location along the Iranian border and their reliance on flow from Turkey upstream offers unique potential for environmental peacemaking in this troubled region.
Iraq’s population of approximately 31.5 million is predicted to balloon to 64 million by 2050, and today 41 percent of the population is under the age of 15. The vast majority of the 64 million will live along the Tigris or Euphrates. Both rivers drain into the Southern Marshes, which as recently as the 1980s provided 60 percent of Iraq’s fish. Today, the marshes are a fraction of their former size (see maps below), no longer provide appreciable sustenance at the national level, and support fewer than 10 percent of their original number of inhabitants.
Although numbers are grim, much of the marsh habitat is highly resilient and could recover enough to support local livelihoods – but not without concerted water management efforts by the Iraqi government and agreements with both Iran and Turkey.
Considering their strategic location and great cultural importance (sometimes called the real-life “Garden of Eden”), restoring the marshes might entice Iraqi leaders and their neighbors to come to the table to discuss more long-standing water access issues in the region.
Geographer Steve Lonergan of the University of Victoria is an expert on hydrology and resource management in the Middle East and headed up the Canada-Iraq Marshlands Initiative (CIMI), which worked in Iraq from October 2004 – March 2010. CIMI recently published both a comprehensive atlas of the Marshes and a report on their current state, “Managing for Change: The Present and Future State of the Marshes of Southern Iraq.”
The New Security Beat recently interviewed Lonergan about the Southern Marshes and their future prospects:
New Security Beat: The CIMI report states that climate change and rising demand will put a serious strain on the Southern Marshes and, if nothing is done, may even lead to their near total loss. What sort of mitigation and/or adaptation efforts are under way if any, and do you see a space for them in Iraq?Steve Lonergan: Not much is being done at present, and certainly not with the present problem of governance, nationally. Iraq does not have a drought management strategy in place, and it refused to label the 2009 drought a disaster because of possible negative perceptions by the international community. There has been investment in infrastructure to support the remaining residents, and small desalination plants have been installed in seven or eight communities (with funding from Japan and UN Environment Programme).
After Saddam drained the marshes, most of the people left, moving either to cities or to refugee camps in Iran. Very few people have returned (according to our sources), due to security issues, environmental quality issues, and the lack of water. The present marsh population is estimated at 80,000 persons, but most of them are living on the edge of the marshes.
I would guess that the population within the marshes – that is, living on the high ground in villages inside the marshes – is not more than 5,000 persons. As a result, there is not much of a political voice for marsh residents. The United States, Canada, and Japan have all discontinued direct assistance. Organizations such as the UN Development Programme are frustrated with the lack of action at the national level. So mitigation and/or adaptation efforts are minimal.
NSB: UNEP, UNDP, the United States, Japan, Italy, Canada, and ad hoc local efforts contributed to a remarkable comeback from 2003-2008, but recently water levels in the marshes have dropped once again. What are the most important short-term steps that have yet to be taken with respect to the marshes?
SL: The most important step would be to reach agreements with Turkey and Iran. In the absence of these, it is difficult to imagine how the marshes could survive. The marshes must also be considered a high priority within Iraq and this is not the case at present.
NSB: In the past the Southern Marshes have been used as a buffer against invasion, drained to force out inhabitants, and dammed to prevent drug trafficking and help monitor the border. How important do you see conservation efforts in the marshes to promoting dialogue and ultimately improving security with Iran and even Turkey?
One of the major drainage canals built by Saddam Hussein’s regime, the Main Outfall Drain (MOD), now diverts water south of Nassiriya into the Shat al Arab River. Experiments are underway to determine whether this water can be treated and diverted back to the marshes.
It is likely that water levels in the marshes will continue to fluctuate; in wet years they will go up, and in drought years they will go down. But much of the original Southern Marshes are now being used for agriculture and are unlikely to return to marsh.SL: There has been some hope in the international community and with people living in the marshes that environmental diplomacy, through the Ramsar Convention, a possible World Heritage Site designation, and bilateral discussions initiated by the UN, could stimulate better dialogue that could eventually improve security within the Tigris and Euphrates basins. Unfortunately, this has not occurred.
Neither Turkey nor Iran care about the marshes. Turkey went so far as to say that if Iraq wasted water by letting it pass through to the marshes that they would not release more upstream on the Euphrates. Iran seems quite happy to sell water to Iraq (they sold water to Basrah in 2009) rather than let it drain into the Marshes.
The Ramsar Convention cannot compel parties to dialogue and UN efforts have been unsuccessful. Having said this, there are ongoing technical discussions between water engineers from Iraq and Iran over the Hawizeh Marsh dyke. But until the Iraqi government is established and the security situation in the country is reasonably stable, I see little hope for these technical discussions.
NSB: As mentioned in the CIMI report, the marshes once provided 60 percent of the fish consumed in Iraq, and their drainage has not only affected the marshes themselves but also fisheries in the Persian Gulf. Do you think fish stocks can ever recover to the point of once again playing a large role in Iraq’s food supply?
SL: It is unlikely that fish stocks will ever recover, at least not in terms of native species. Low-valued species such as catfish (which Iraqis will not eat) now dominate in many areas as water quality has deteriorated. Attempts to restore the Bunni population – the highest valued species – were completely unsuccessful. There is still fishing in the marshes, but in many cases it is with poison or dynamite.
NSB: Given the continuing poor security situation as well as political deadlock, have the prospects for the future health of the marshes changed in your mind?
We ran workshops throughout the region on best management practices in fishing, but there simply is not enough fish to feed the local population, let alone the rest of Iraq.SL: In our study, we looked at many scenarios, three of which are highlighted in the report. The basic problem is simply one of lack of water. Upstream withdrawals from Turkey and within Iraq have severely impeded the flow of water to the marshes. The recent building of a dyke by Iran along the border has reduced the flow of water to Hawizeh Marsh, the largest of the three areas that comprise the Southern Marsh system.
Sources: BBC, Canada-Iraq Marshlands Initiative, Guardian, IPS-Inter Press Service News, NPR, New Scientist, Population Reference Bureau, UN Environment Programme, University of Pennsylvania Press.
With competition for water increasing (both from Turkey and Iran and also from other sectors within Iraq), it is doubtful whether there will ever be enough water to replenish the marshes to the extent they were prior to 1990. Coupled with greater climate variability – evidenced by the severe drought in 2008-2009 – and the decreasing quality of most of the water remaining, I remain pessimistic about the future of the Southern Marshes and the people dependent on them.
Photo Credit: “Marsh Arabs in a mashoof,” courtesy of Wikimedia Commons. Maps courtesy of the Canada-Iraq Marshlands Initiative. MORE -
Middle East at the Crossroads:
Israel and Lebanon: New Natural Gas Riches in the Levant
›By Russell Sticklor // Friday, September 17, 2010The Middle East is home to some of the fastest growing, most resource-scarce, and conflict-affected countries in the world. New Security Beat’s “Middle East at the Crossroads” series takes a look at the most challenging population, health, environment, and security issues facing the region.
It doesn’t take much to get Israel and Lebanon at each other’s throats these days, given that the two neighbors engaged in a significant war in 2006. That conflict remains an open wound, as the two sides remain technically at war to this day. Periodic cross-border flare-ups — most recently over the cutting down of a tree on their shared border, which left one Israeli and three Lebanese dead — show neither side has to be pushed far to trigger an outbreak of violence.
In recent months, a new wrinkle — and a new source of potential conflict — has been added to bilateral relations, with the discovery of significant natural gas reserves under Mediterranean waters off both countries’ coasts. The find has sparked a scramble from Beirut and Jerusalem, as the two energy-hungry nations look to capitalize on the deposits and exploit the reserves. For both Israel and Lebanon, developing the natural gas potential of this swath of the eastern Mediterranean could augment energy supply, and even pave the way to a greener energy future. But fears of a military stand-off over the resource lurk just around the corner, given that much of the extractable natural gas in question lies under contested waters.
Maritime Border Undefined
The U.S. Geological Survey estimates the recoverable amount of natural gas reserves, which lie in an area known as the Levant Basin Province, to be 122 trillion cubic feet (tcf). While not a huge find by global standards — the world consumed 110 tcf of natural gas in 2008 — the discovery is a potential game-changer in terms of the energy security of both Israel and Lebanon. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, in 2007 Israel produced only four percent of the total energy it consumed, while Lebanon generated just three percent of the energy it used. With the natural gas bonanza, not only would the two countries become more self-sufficient in meeting their own domestic energy needs, there is also speculation they could even one day become natural gas exporters.
The question that is only now beginning to be addressed is who controls what. Under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, every coastal country has an exclusive economic zone (EEZ) that extends 200 miles off its shoreline. But in certain bodies of water, EEZ territorial claims have overlapped, with one of those areas disputed being the Mediterranean.
At this point, much of the known reserves appear to lie firmly in Israeli territorial waters, one of the reasons Israel has outpaced Lebanon in moving to drill for the resource. But Lebanese leaders — long concerned about the prospect of Israel infringing upon Lebanon’s sovereignty — have sounded the alarm, claiming that a substantial amount of the reserves may lie in Lebanese territorial waters. Further complicating matters is the fact that the two countries’ maritime border has remained unfixed since the end of the 2006 war, meaning that each country could have a legitimate claim that the other is trespassing on its sovereign territory in pursuit of the gas.
Hinting at a Physical Confrontation
The stakes appear high. In a recent interview with The New York Times, Ali Hamdan, an assistant to Lebanese Parliament speaker Nabih Berri, issued a strong-worded statement on potential Israeli drilling in disputed waters. “Lebanon fears that Israel, based on its history of occupying our lands and stealing our water, will drill in Lebanon’s waters and steal its natural resources,” Hamdan asserted. “Lebanon strongly warns Israel from drilling its natural gas. It will not tolerate violations of its sovereignty.”
In recent weeks, the Lebanese government has also taken steps to secure what it can, announcing plans to start doling out contracts for underwater exploration of the Levant Basin Province’s natural gas and oil reserves. Beirut is also putting together documents outlining what it considers to be the actual Israeli-Lebanese maritime border, which it plans to submit to the UN Security Council for consideration.
For its part, Israel has pledged that it will be drilling for natural gas only in waters under its control. At the same time, however, the country has refused to back down to Lebanese threats against its natural gas development activities and infrastructure, warning that it will not hesitate to meet force with force. The posturing reveals how strategically important the exploitation of the gas reserves is for both countries. With Lebanon’s population expected to grow by some 400,000 between 2010 and 2025, and Israel’s population projected to grow by 1.8 million in the same time period, there is an acute awareness in both Beirut and Jerusalem that energy demand will be rising in the near future.
A “Bridge Fuel” to a Cleaner Energy Future?
Despite the very real conflict potential of the new natural gas find, the presence of significant reserves in the eastern Mediterranean has also been the cause for limited optimism. In addition to helping ease the oil- and coal-dependence of Israel, Lebanon, and their neighbors, the heightened integration of natural gas into the region’s energy infrastructure may help substantially cut down on carbon emissions, since natural gas is the cleanest-burning fossil fuel. (In 2008, Israel and Lebanon pumped 70.21 metric tons and 14.37 metric tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, respectively, owing largely to their heavy reliance on coal and petroleum.)
Natural gas is also a versatile energy source for electricity production that can be used by the region’s households, businesses, and factories alike. As a result, not only could natural gas’s rising profile in Israel and Lebanon’s respective energy portfolios help improve air quality, it could also accelerate the development of low-polluting, natural gas–fueled automobiles and public transit.
But even given such environmental benefits, the environmental picture is not all rosy. The underwater extraction of natural gas poses potentially severe risks to the maritime environment, one of the reasons that Israelis living in the northern part of the country have steadfastly opposed any potential drilling. (Another source of local residents’ concern has been that the physical infrastructure needed to harvest, store, and later distribute natural gas overland could prove a highly attractive target for Hezbollah-linked militants based in Lebanon.)
In the end, drilling for natural gas in the eastern Mediterranean by both Israel and Lebanon will undoubtedly move forward. The real question is whether given the controversy already unleashed by the Levant Basin Province reserves, Israel and Lebanon will eventually find it in their own enlightened self-interests to strike an accord on developing the region’s natural gas — or instead unleash missiles to protect what they consider rightfully theirs.
Sources: Center for American Progress, Earth Times, National Public Radio, New York Times, Population Reference Bureau, U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. Geological Survey, Washington Post, Yalibnan.com.
Photo Credit: “UNIFIL Vessel Patrols Lebanese Coast,” courtesy of flickr user United Nations Photo. MORE -
Middle East at the Crossroads:
Yemen: Population, Environment, and Security Collide
›By Schuyler Null // Tuesday, September 14, 2010The Middle East is home to some of the fastest growing, most resource-scarce, and conflict-affected countries in the world. New Security Beat’s “Middle East at the Crossroads” series takes a look at the most challenging population, health, environment, and security issues facing the region.
Yemen is one of the most kinetic intersections of human and environmental security in the world. At the tip of the Arabian Peninsula, it is a natural gateway for those fleeing hardship in the conflict-wracked Horn of Africa, but observers are concerned it may soon resemble something much less than a haven.
Increased local resistance to a corrupt regime in Sanaa and an influx of Al Qaeda influence recently caused the CIA to reassess the franchise in Yemen as a more urgent threat to national security than the core Al Qaeda elements in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
In addition to these traditional security challenges, Yemen faces a bevy of population and environment-related problems. With its 22.8 million people, Yemen is growing faster than any other country in the Middle East – by 2050, it will rival Spain in total population. It is home to nearly a million impoverished migrants from East Africa, is almost totally reliant on groundwater that is being drained faster than can naturally be replenished, has an unemployment rate approaching 40 percent, the lowest rating in the world for gender equity, and almost no source of income besides oil exports, which have declined 56 percent since 2001 and are expected to continue sliding, barring any major new discoveries.
Beyond its more covert commitments, the United States has pledged over $210 million to Yemen for military, economic, and development assistance for this year alone. Is it enough to stave off collapse in one of the Middle East’s most troubled states?
For more see The New Security Beat’s full feature, “Demographics, Depleted Resources, and Al Qaeda Inflame Tensions in Yemen,” published earlier this summer.
Sources: Associated Press, Association for the Study of Peak Oil – USA, Central Intelligence Agency, Washington Post.
Photo Credit: Adapted from “Old Town Sanaa – Yemen 53,” courtesy of flickr user Richard Messenger. MORE -
Middle East at the Crossroads:
The Dead Sea: A Pathway to Peace for Israel and Jordan?
›By Russell Sticklor // Tuesday, September 7, 2010
The Middle East is home to some of the fastest growing, most resource-scarce, and conflict-affected countries in the world. New Security Beat’s “Middle East at the Crossroads” series takes a look at the most challenging population, health, environment, and security issues facing the region.
Amidst the start of a new round of Middle East peace negotiations, the fate of the Dead Sea — which is divided between Israel, Jordan, and the West Bank — may not seem particularly relevant. But unlike the perpetually thorny political issues of Israeli settlement policy and Palestinian statehood, the Dead’s continuing environmental decline has sparked rare consensus in a region beset by conflict. Israelis, Jordanians, and Palestinians all agree that something must be done. The much more difficult question, however, is what. But no one is lacking for ideas.MOREWho Stole the Dead’s Water?
Some 1,400 feet below sea level, the shoreline of the Dead Sea lies at the lowest dry point on the planet. Since the 1970s, this ancient inland saltwater sea has been changing, and fast, with the water level dropping at a rate of three feet per year. The region’s stifling heat and attendant high evaporation rates have certainly played their part. But the real culprits are irrigated agriculture and household water demand, spurred by population growth, which have siphoned off much of the precious little water that once flowed into the sea.
Historically, the Jordan River and its tributaries have contributed roughly 75 percent of the Dead’s annual inflow, or about 1.3 billion cubic meters per year. Even though the Jordan isn’t a large river system, it is an economic lifeline in this parched region. The basin’s waters have been tapped to the point of exhaustion by businesses, farms, and households in Israel, Jordan, the West Bank, and, father afield, Syria and Lebanon. With the cumulative population of those areas projected to increase by 68 percent between now and 2050 (or from 44.9 million today to 75.4 million by mid-century), strain on the region’s water supply will only increase with each passing year.
Already, the Jordan and its tributaries are far worse for the wear. Pollution is an ongoing concern thanks to untreated wastewater entering the river system, while a sprawling network of dams and other irrigation diversions to “make the desert bloom” has carried with it a hefty environmental price tag. The Jordan now delivers a scant 100 million cubic meters to the Dead each year, with up to 50 percent of that flow likely contaminated by raw sewage due to inadequate wastewater treatment upstream.
Meanwhile, water depletion rates in the Dead have been exacerbated by mineral-extraction companies on the sea’s southern reaches, which rely heavily on evaporation ponds to remove valuable minerals from the saltwater.
Tapping the Red
Attempts to internationalize the environmental dilemmas facing the greater Dead Sea region range from a proposed transborder “peace park” in the Jordan River valley to a global, internet-driven campaign to vote the Dead Sea as one of the seven natural wonders of the world. But by far the most ambitious — and controversial — idea for restoring the Dead Sea’s health is to build a 186-mile canal to bring in water from the Red Sea.
The plan has been around for decades, but has not gotten off the drawing board due to its large scale and costs. The project’s centerpiece would be a waterway built through the Arava Desert Valley along the Israeli-Jordanian border. Proponents on both sides of the border say the canal could help raise the Dead’s surface level, helping restore the area’s struggling ecosystems. And given the canal’s substantial elevation drop from sea level to shoreline, its waters could likely be harnessed for hydroelectricity, powering desalination plants that would provide new fresh water for the region.
The project could also harness cross-border environmental issues to transcend long-standing political and religious divisions between the region’s Jewish and Arab populations. “People are saying that water will cause wars,Dr. Hazim el-Naser in a 2002 interview on the canal project, when he served as Jordanian minister of water and irrigation. “We in the region, we’re saying, ‘No.’ Water will enhance cooperation. We can build peace through water projects.” Currently, the canal proposal is the subject of a World Bank feasibility study expected to be completed in 2011.
Deep Skepticism Remains
Still, as diplomatically and environmentally promising as a Red-Dead canal may seem, not everyone is on board with the proposed project. Environmentalists’ concerns run the gamut from unintended ecological impacts on the Dead Sea’s delicate chemical composition, to a sense that, even after decades of on-and-off consideration, the project is being pushed at the expense of other possible policy options.
The New Security Beat recently contacted Mira Edelstein of the international environmental nonprofit Friends of the Earth Middle East via email to discuss some of the group’s concerns about the canal. Edelstein highlighted some of the potential pitfalls of — and alternatives to — a canal link to the Dead:
New Security Beat: How have population growth and the corresponding rise in food demand in Israel, Jordan, and the West Bank affected the Dead Sea’s health?Mira Edelstein: The Jordanian and Israeli agricultural sectors still enjoy subsidized water tariffs, making it easy to continue growing water-intensive crops. But this depletes flows in the lower Jordan River system, and directly impacts the Dead Sea.
NSB: Why is your organization opposed to the idea of a Red-Dead canal link?ME: Friends of the Earth Middle East does not support a Red Sea link, as this option carries the risk of irreparable damage. We believe that this option will not only damage the Dead Sea itself — where the mixing of waters from two different seas will surely impact the chemical balance that makes the Dead Sea so unique — but also because we are worried that pumping such an enormous amount of water from the Gulf of Aqaba will likely harm the coral reefs in the Red Sea itself.
NSB: What steps do you propose to improve environmental conditions in the Dead Sea and the Jordan River valley?
Additionally, the Arava Desert Valley, where the pipes will be laid, is a seismically active region. Any small earthquake might damage the pipes, causing seawater to spill and polluting underground freshwater aquifers.ME: It all has to do with the water policies in the region. The governments [of Israel, Jordan, and the West Bank] desperately need to reform our unsustainable policies, and at the top of this list is agriculture. This means removing water subsidies and changing over from water-intensive crops to more sustainable crops appropriate for the local environment.
Sources: Friends of the Earth Middle East, Israel Marine Data Center, Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs, National Geographic, the New York Times, Population Reference Bureau, United Nations, Washington Post, Waternet, the World Bank.
In addition, wastewater treatment plants need to be built throughout all of the Jordan valley region so that only treated wastewater is used for agriculture. Some of that treated water, and of course fresh water, should be brought back into the Jordan River system that will later flow into the Dead Sea…In addition, ecotourism projects should be encouraged, as they are an economic stimulus that can help support greater environmental conversation in the region.
Photo Credit: “Dead Sea Reflection,” looking east across the Dead Sea to the Jordanian shore, courtesy of flickr user Mr. Kris. -
Middle East at the Crossroads:
Iraq: Water, Power, Trash, and Security
›Interview With Mishkat Al Moumin, First Iraqi Minister of the Environment
By Schuyler Null // Tuesday, August 31, 2010The Middle East is home to some of the fastest growing, most resource-scarce, and conflict-affected countries in the world. New Security Beat’s “Middle East at the Crossroads” series takes a look at the most challenging population, health, environment, and security issues facing the region.
As the final American combat brigade pulls out of the country, the prevailing opinion in the United States about Iraq at the moment seems to be one of “bad politics are better than no politics,” and that despite continued violence (albeit significantly lessened from 2006-2007 levels), the American mission is largely finished. However, serious challenges remain, one of the most significant being the government’s continued inability to supply basic services to a growing population.
The New York Times recently reported that despite billions of dollars spent on energy infrastructure in the seven years since the invasion – $5 billion by the U.S. – Iraqi power plants still average only 53 percent of total capacity. In Baghdad, where temperatures routinely reach well over 100 degrees Fahrenheit during the summer, electricity theft is common and usage is limited to five hours a day.
South of the capital, protests over energy shortages and inaction by the stalled government turned deadly last month after police opened fire on protestors, killing two. The incident caused the resignation of Electricity Minister Karim Waheed who claimed he needed more time to develop projects and said Iraqis were “not capable of being patient in their suffering,” according to the BBC.
Investment in the country’s water infrastructure is dangerously lacking as well, to the point of threatening national security, according to Water Minister Abdullatif Jamal Rashid. As reported by Reuters, Rashid cites depleted resources, lack of rainfall, desertification, and a growing population as threats to the country’s already stressed water supply, which went through catastrophic drought in 2008-2009.
Perhaps the most worrying aspect of Iraq’s current water and electricity shortfall is the outlook for the future: the country is set to double in population by 2050. According to the Population Reference Bureau, Iraq along with Yemen and the Palestinian Territories, are the clear outliers in Middle Eastern demographics. In each, youth represents greater than 40 percent of the population, average total fertility rate is higher than four, and total population is expected to more than double over the next 40 years.
Speaking to The New York Times, top U.S. commander in Iraq General Ray Odierno said, “Everybody considers 1 September, we’re abandoning Iraq. We’re not abandoning Iraq. What we’re doing is changing our commitment from a military-dominated commitment to one that is more civilian-led, which is what I think they need more.”
The New Security Beat contacted Iraq’s first Minister of the Environment, Mashkat Al Moumin – now working in Washington, DC – to discuss these issues and how they may effect the country’s continuing security and development challenges.
New Security Beat: You mention on your blog True Stories about Security that the situation in Basra, where two Iraqis protesting electricity shortages were recently killed, is really an environmental security problem. How do you think that situation could have been avoided?Mishkat Al Moumin: I think the situation could have been avoided by taking two steps: 1) Provide electricity locally by allowing each governorate to build the local infrastructure to supply electricity within the governorate itself; 2) Provide a sense of public ownership to electricity stations.
NSB: Iraq’s water minister recently called the water infrastructure situation “a threat to national security.” Would you agree with that assessment? What was the water supply situation like when you took office and how has it changed?MM: I definitely agree with Minister Latif Rasheed on his analysis. The lack of proper infrastructure to supply water aggravates the population against the government.
NSB: Where else do you see environmental security issues in Iraq playing a larger role than is perhaps well known?
The water supply situation was critical when I was in office. For example, according to the Ministry of Water Resources only 32 percent of the Iraqi population enjoys access to safe drinking and 19 percent enjoys access to a good sewage system. However, during my time the Ministry of the Environment provided safe drinking water to marginalized communities such as Sadr City and Fallujah City. You can find a note of appreciation from the communities in Sadr posted on my blog.MM: There are two environmental policies that need to be reformed to encompass security threats: trash-pick up policy and safe drinking water policy.
NSB: You have also done a great deal of work on women’s issues in Iraq, heading up the Women and the Environment Organization (WATEO) non-profit. What specific connections between gender issues, demographics, the environment, and security do you see in Iraq?
Piles of trash provide strategic hiding places for bombs and explosive devices and the lack of safe drinking water is increasing distrust and opposition to the government.MM: Environmental management can be utilized as a policy tool to bridge gender gaps, as well as security gaps. To effectively protect water resources and other environmental resources and services, the primary stakeholders should be involved in any policymaking that is designed to regulate them.
NSB: Iraq’s population is expected to double over the next 40 years. What steps do you see as necessary to prevent conflict over the country’s finite natural resources in the future?
In Iraq a major stakeholder in that respect are women, especially marginalized women. In order to achieve security in a certain community, all members of that community must be involved in security planning and implementation. For example, women are the primary users of water resources. During their walks to collect water, they may encounter suspicious activities, such as insurgents hiding a bomb or an IED. When they try to report these activities to the men in their communities, the men do not believe them. However, in one of the communities where WATEO operates, the community leaders listened to the report of an 18 year old woman and the perpetrators were arrested.
For WATEO, developing this trust is the keystone in bridging gender, environment, and security issues in the rural communities of Iraq.MM: First, enact environmental policies at the local level rather than at the national level, which would provide more resources for the people. Enacting policies at the local level establishes a sense of ownership among local communities and provides them with an incentive to protect their environmental resources. Moreover, it provides a better opportunity to involve the main stakeholders in policymaking.
Sources: BBC, Foreign Policy, New York Times, Population Reference Bureau, Reuters, USA Today.
Second, invest in new technologies which can preserve and maintain current resources. New technologies will enable Iraq to protect and add more to its environmental capital. For example, Iraq would benefit greatly from new technology to better utilize ground water for domestic and agricultural use.
Photo Credit: Adapted from “An Iraqi policeman steps over trash and mud during a walking patrol” in the Rashid district of Baghdad, courtesy of the U.S. Navy and Wikimedia Commons. MORE
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