Yemen at the Crossroads:
Population, Environment, and Security Collide
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Yemen is one of the most kinetic intersections of human and environmental security in the world. At the tip of the Arabian Peninsula, it is a natural gateway for those fleeing hardship in the conflict-wracked Horn of Africa, but observers are concerned it may soon resemble something much less than a haven.
Increased local resistance to a corrupt regime in Sanaa and an influx of Al Qaeda influence recently caused the CIA to reassess the franchise in Yemen as a more urgent threat to national security than the core Al Qaeda elements in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
In addition to these traditional security challenges, Yemen faces a bevy of population and environment-related problems. With its 22.8 million people, Yemen is growing faster than any other country in the Middle East – by 2050, it will rival Spain in total population. It is home to nearly a million impoverished migrants from East Africa, is almost totally reliant on groundwater that is being drained faster than can naturally be replenished, has an unemployment rate approaching 40 percent, the lowest rating in the world for gender equity, and almost no source of income besides oil exports, which have declined 56 percent since 2001 and are expected to continue sliding, barring any major new discoveries.
Beyond its more covert commitments, the United States has pledged over $210 million to Yemen for military, economic, and development assistance for this year alone. Is it enough to stave off collapse in one of the Middle East’s most troubled states?
For more see The New Security Beat’s full feature, “Demographics, Depleted Resources, and Al Qaeda Inflame Tensions in Yemen,” published earlier this summer.
Sources: Associated Press, Association for the Study of Peak Oil – USA, Central Intelligence Agency, Washington Post.
Photo Credit: Adapted from “Old Town Sanaa - Yemen 53,” courtesy of flickr user Richard Messenger.
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The NY Times has a detailed account of the internal Defense vs. State divide over what kind of assistance and how much to give to Yemen if the ultimate objective is countering Al Qaeda. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/16/world/middleeast/16yemen.html?ref=global-home. Gotta say, if the appropriators would be more willing to see development and diplomacy aid as "real security," then perhaps it would be easier to bring the three Ds of defense, development, and diplomacy into better balance. We are missing a real opportunity with Sec Gates in charge of DOD to address this imbalance. He is gone in a year and we aren't guaranteed to have a new SecDef so supportive of the other two Ds.
Update: In the wake of the latest attempted terror attack from Yemen, The New York Times reports on the deep skepticism that Yemenis view their government's anti-Al Qaeda efforts:
"As Yemen intensifies its military campaign against Al Qaeda’s regional arm, it faces a serious obstacle: most Yemenis consider the group a myth, or a ploy by their president to squeeze the West for aid money and punish his domestic opponents.
...
'What is Al Qaeda? The truth is there is no Al Qaeda,' said Lutfi Muhammad, a weary-looking unemployed 50-year-old walking through this city’s tumultuous Tahrir Square. Instead, he said, the violence is 'because of the regime and the lack of stability and the internal struggles."
Not surprising, given the government's history of corruption, inability to provide basic services, and the general lack of opportunity for young and old Yemenis alike.
Schuyler Null- that second quote is from Egypt not Yemen. Tahrir Square is the clue.
Good catch, but actually Cairo is not the only city in the Middle East with a Tahrir square - Sanaa and other cities have one too. "Tahrir" means liberation in Arabic.
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